-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
525
FXUS61 KAKQ 210557
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
157 AM EDT Tue May 21 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure settles over the region today, favoring dry
weather. A summerlike pattern develops by the middle of the
week. A cold front approaches from the northwest Thursday with
daily chances for showers and storms to end the week and into
the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
As of 810 PM EDT Monday...

Key Messages:

- Lows in the low-mid 50s tonight with fog formation again
  possible across the entire forecast area

High pressure is settling in over the area this evening. Aloft,
a trough is pushing offshore and a strong ridge is building in
behind it. Clouds have cleared for all but the Eastern Shore and
areas near the coast from Norfolk southward into NE NC.
Overnight, temps will cool into the low-mid 50s. Expecting cloud
cover to build back in from the east overnight, but should
remain scattered over the western half of the area. Fog
formation is also expected across the entire area overnight.
Latest guidance shows increasing potential for widespread areas
of fog with visibility dropping to 1/2 mile or less late
tonight. Will continue to monitor these trends and a Dense Fog
Advisory or Special Weather Statement are possible once again
overnight through 8-10am.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 340 PM EDT Monday...

Key Message:

- Dry Tuesday and Wednesday with a noticeable warming trend.

- An approaching cold front brings chances showers and
  thunderstorms Thursday, a few of which could be strong to
  severe.

High pressure remains in place over the area through mid-week and
gradually shifts to the south. The ridge aloft will continue to
build through early Wed, then gets suppressed Wed into Thurs. Skies
will be mostly clear Tue and Wed. A cold front approaches from the
NW on Thurs. Based on 12z global guidance, the front looks to enter
the local area late evening Thurs. Northwestern portions of the area
should see precip in the late afternoon, then showers/storms move
into the remainder of the area later that evening. Thunder seems
likely (especially in the afternoon/evening) given sufficient
instability from day-time heating. While still a few days away, the
synoptic pattern could favor some strong-severe storms given
increasing mid-upper level flow with the trough passing to to our N.

Temperatures follow a warming trend through the week. Highs on Tues
will be in the low 80s in the piedmont, upper 70s in the E, and
upper 60s-low 70s immediately at the coast courtesy of onshore flow.
Highs on Wed warm into the upper 80s inland and low-mid 80s
immediately along the coast. Cannot rule out a few places touching
90. Hot again on Thurs with highs in the mid-80s to around 90. Lows
Tues night in the upper 50s, mid-60s Wed and Thurs night.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 340 PM EDT Monday...

Key Messages:

- Remaining warm, but unsettled, for Friday into the weekend.

A lot of uncertainty in the long term, but the pattern looks to be
generally unsettled. Thursday night`s cold front will likely stall
out over or near the local area due to a weak flow aloft. This will
create daily chances for showers and thunderstorms through the
weekend and into early next week, mostly in the afternoon and
evenings. Due to the uncertainty, stuck close to the PoPs from the
blended guidance. However, capped PoPs at Chnc and did some light
editing to reflect the diurnal nature. Regarding temps, Friday has
trended warmer with highs now getting into the mid-80s most places
and low 80s on the Eastern Shore. Likely a bit cooler on Sat and Sun
with temps in the upper 70s-around 80 across the N and up to the mid-
80s in the far south. Back to the low-mid 80s everywhere W of the
bay on Mon (upper 70s on Eastern Shore). Lows will be in the low-mid
60s through this period.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 155 AM EDT Tuesday...

High pressure is centered from the Mid-Atlantic to the New
England coast as of 06z, with low pressure well off the
Southeast coast. This is resulting in light onshore flow, which
has resulted in areas of IFR/LIFR stratus pushing onshore.
IFR/LIFR conditions are expected to prevail through early
morning with vsby dropping to 1/2-2sm, with 1/4sm possible at
SBY. High pressure remains in vicinity of the coast Tuesday.
Cigs/vsby are expected to slowly improve during the morning
lingering longest along the coast. High pressure becomes
centered immediately offshore tonight with some patchy
stratus/fog possible, especially toward the coast.

Dry Wednesday through most of Thursday with prevailing VFR
conditions. A cold front approaches from the NW later Thursday
aftn bringing a chc of showers/tstms. This front lingers over
the area Friday into Saturday with a chc of mainly aftn/evening
showers/tstms continuing.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
As of 245 PM EDT Monday...

Key Messages:

-Moderate rip current risk expected for the southern beaches on
Tuesday.

- Generally quiet marine conditions continuing for much of the week.

High pressure continues to build into the local area this afternoon,
which is pushing an area of low pressure further southeast away from
our waters. Wind is generally E/NE at 8-12kt with a few gusts to
15kts. Afternoon seas are 3-4ft across the north with 4-5ft along
the southern coastal waters. Waves in the Bay remain around 1-2ft.
With relatively benign conditions expected on the marine side for
most of the week, expect seas and waves to persist at the
aforementioned levels, with perhaps the southern seas coming down to
3-4ft as well. The high pressure will slide offshore later this week
ahead of an incoming frontal system turning the winds more SSW, but
they should remain below SCA thresholds. The cold front will settle
into the region Thursday and into the weekend bringing a chance
of scattered showers and storms each day.

A high risk of rip currents continues for the rest of the day for
the southern beaches, with a moderate risk for the northern
beaches. Expecting the rip forecast for tomorrow to "come down"
to moderate for the southern beaches and low for the northern
beaches as the wind relaxes and nearshore waves gradually
subside.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
As of 340 PM EDT Monday...

Water is gradually moving downstream on the Nottoway River,
with Sebrell in minor flood stage early this afternoon. The
river will likely stay in flood into Tuesday morning before
falling below flood stage later Tuesday. Rainfall from the
weekend may cause localized rises in other rivers, but all
remaining sites should stay below action stage.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
As of 245 PM EDT Monday...

Another round of nuisance to minor tidal flooding is expected to
occur during the higher astronomical high tide tonight as tidal
anomalies remain 1.0-1.5ft above astronomical, particularly for the
middle Chesapeake Bay and tidal portions of the Rappahannock River
and southern shore of the tidal Potomac. Thus, a Coastal Flood
Statement has been issued for these locations, as well as the upper
James area, for tonight`s high tide cycle. A similar pattern will
continue through midweek as the higher astronomical high tides will
remain elevated over the next several days.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SW
NEAR TERM...AM/RHR
SHORT TERM...AM
LONG TERM...AM
AVIATION...AJZ
MARINE...AJZ/JKP
HYDROLOGY...AKQ
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AKQ