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272
FXUS61 KRLX 200004
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
804 PM EDT Sun May 19 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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A high pressure system will provide hot and dry weather into
midweek. A cold front brings showers and thunderstorms late
Wednesday and Thursday. Cooler Thursday and Friday.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
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As of 750 PM Sunday...

Made minor modifications to cloud cover through Monday to
represent the latest trends, but otherwise, the forecast remains
on track. Diurnally driven Cu field has quickly dissipated
across much of the region, with portions of the mountains being
the one exception. Lingering surface convergence courtesy of
anabatic flow could squeeze out a highly isolated light shower
across the northeast mountains over the next hour or so, but
most, if not all areas will remain dry, as katabatic flow begins
in ernest after sunset and ends any chance of precipitation.

As of 215 PM Sunday...

Mid-upper level high pressure provides mainly dry weather with
morning valley fog and afternoon cumulus amid above normal
temperatures, which will reach at least the mid 80s across the
lowlands this afternoon where they have not already, and then
the upper 80s across the lowlands Monday afternoon. There will
be somewhat of a ridge/valley split on lows tonight, lower 60s
hilltops and upper 50s valleys, and 50s in the mountains.

A weak surface trough along the mountains, along with the
elevated heat source effect, was providing enough focus for a
more stout cumulus field, with some of the cumulus convection
vigorous enough for a shower or even a thunderstorm. With
precipitable water values under an inch, water issues are not
anticipated. Mid-upper level ridging and less of a surface
trough, if any, should keep Monday free of showers and
thunderstorms altogether.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 216 PM Sunday...

Drier, and increasingly warmer weather is in store for Tuesday, as
high pressure surface and aloft continues to build into the region.
Can`t completely rule out an isolated shower or storm developing
during peak heating hours Tuesday, provided something can break
through the cap, but overall, expect much of Tuesday to remain dry.
With the building ridge across the area, some locations could even
top out around 90 by Tuesday, which according to the nws heat risk
map, sensitive individuals could be affected, even though this is
below criteria for an advisory.

Low pressure will move northeast into Canada Tuesday into Wednesday,
eventually sweeping a cold front across the area on Thursday.
Showers and storms will develop out ahead of the front Wednesday
afternoon and evening, with the possibility of some storms becoming
strong to severe, mainly across parts of SE Ohio and perhaps into NE
KY, with a damaging wind threat.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 1230 PM Sunday...

Frontal boundary will move through the region Thursday, potentially
stalling out just to our south early Friday, as surface high
pressure briefly builds in across the north. Most of the CWA will
remain dry on Friday, however, isolated showers and storms will
continue to be possible across the south in particular, closer to
the front.  Active weather will return over the weekend, with the
approach of another system from the west.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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As of 215 PM Sunday...

Isolated showers and thunderstorms firing in the mountains this
afternoon may impact BKW, where VCTS/CB was coded, or even EKN.
Otherwise VFR conditions prevail amid a mainly scattered
afternoon cumulus field.

VFR conditions on a mainly clear night tonight will likely
again give way to valley fog, mainly in valleys in and near the
mountains. The forecast reflects VLIFR dense fog at EKN 06Z or
07Z to 12Z, not quite as long as last night, and LIFR at CKB
08Z-12Z, burning off at both locations 12Z-13Z.

CRW and PKB will likely have a brief period of MVFR to IFR
mist/fog just before and around dawn Monday morning, which
should also then be gone by 13Z.

A VFR day is in store for Monday with an afternoon cumulus
field, and a hot afternoon across the lowlands. High pressure
aloft should keep the weather dry on Monday.

Light north to northeast to variable surface flow this
afternoon will become calm tonight, and then light and variable
to southeast on Monday. Light flow aloft through tonight will
veer to light east and then light southeast on Monday.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Light winds at EKN and BKW may vary in
direction this afternoon on account of a weak surface trough
nearby to the east. Timing and intensity of fog formation
overnight tonight could vary.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                            MON 05/20/24
UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
EDT 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    M    L    L
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    L    L    L
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    M    M    M

AFTER 00Z TUESDAY...
No widespread IFR conditions are expected at this time.
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&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL/GW
NEAR TERM...TRM/GW
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...TRM