Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
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323 FXUS65 KABQ 232310 AAA AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 510 PM MDT Mon Sep 23 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 318 PM MDT Mon Sep 23 2024 An isolated shower or two will pop up over the northern mountains today, but otherwise a calm, warm, and dry pattern is expected through the bulk of the week. Patchy fog may develop the next few mornings in the Pecos River Valley, but disappear by midday. Temperatures will gradually increase each day to Thursday, with highs being 5 to 10 degrees above average, mainly in the central and western regions of the state. Isolated gusty winds are possible Friday and Saturday with virga showers over the northern mountains. Temperatures will remain a few degrees above average into the weekend. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Tuesday night) Issued at 318 PM MDT Mon Sep 23 2024 Fairly tranquil weather reigns supreme through the short term period tonight through Tuesday night. New Mexico is under a lagging troughing pattern. The surface airmass behind the cold front that swung through eastern NM earlier this past weekend is modifying with warming temperatures today. Meanwhile, there is a cumulus field over the northern mountains where a few showers and an isolated thunderstorm is expected. In fact, one isolated thunderstorm is present near Tres Piedras where lift and instability collocated with the upper trough is. This activity will steadily taper off this evening. Surface flow across the eastern plains will begin to switch back out of the south maintaining abundant boundary layer moisture present over the Caprock and portions of the lower Pecos River Valley. Calm winds and clear skies will allow for another round of patchy fog to develop in this area Tuesday morning. Elsewhere it will be another very pleasant day across the Land of Enchantment. The only other feature of note is the leading edge of a frontal boundary backing into northeastern NM that will keep temperatures consistent with today`s readings. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through Sunday) Issued at 318 PM MDT Mon Sep 23 2024 A dome of high pressure will move its way into the intermountain west and will continue to provide calm conditions for the Land of Enchantment on Wednesday. The high will build to around 590dm at 500mb, which is between the 75th and 90th percentile for this time of year. A near carbon copy is expected on Thursday, with the high centering itself directly over NM. Temperatures for Wednesday and Thursday will be anywhere from 5-10F above average, mainly for the RGV, though some locations along I-40 in Guadalupe and Quay Counties will be slightly below average on Wednesday. As the high sits over us, an interesting scenario plays out in the southeast US. Potential Tropical Cyclone 9 is forecast by the NHC to become Hurricane Helene later this week and ride up into the Florida panhandle. The low pressure that caused our severe weather this past weekend will have stalled in the lower Mississippi River Valley through the middle of this week, and may enact a bit of a Fujiwara Effect with PTC9. This would nudge the low west a touch late Thursday into Friday, employing slight mid-level moisture advection. This moisture would likely be the source of some higher based clouds with the potential for virga showers Friday afternoon, mainly over the north-central mountains, as the lower levels remain drier. This trend would play out similarly on Saturday. Model disagreement comes into play later in the weekend and into next week. The GFS has latched onto a robust Alberta Clipper that would dive into the north central US on Monday, forcing a backdoor cold front into NM on Monday evening with strong gap winds. The ECMWF on the other hand has a 594dm high centered over the Gila National Forest and thus no backdoor front. Ensemble data is trending to favor the ECMWF, with a broader ridge forming over the southwest US. While not completely out of the question, confidence is low in the GFS solution. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 510 PM MDT Mon Sep 23 2024 VFR conditions prevail. Light winds overnight. Low potential for patchy fog across Estancia and Pecos River Valley around sunrise Tuesday, potentially impacting KROW. Backdoor front pushes through northeast and east central late Tuesday morning into afternoon resulting in a northeast wind shift. Some gusts of up to 20 kts possible at KLVS and KTCC along the leading edge. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 318 PM MDT Mon Sep 23 2024 No critical fire weather concerns through the forecast period. Calm prevailing weather will be present each day, alongside some patchy morning fog in parts of central and eastern NM. A few stray virga showers could produce a stray and erratic gusty wind. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 47 81 49 87 / 0 0 0 0 Dulce........................... 35 79 39 81 / 0 0 0 0 Cuba............................ 43 77 46 79 / 0 0 0 0 Gallup.......................... 39 80 40 85 / 0 0 0 0 El Morro........................ 43 77 47 80 / 0 0 0 0 Grants.......................... 40 81 41 83 / 0 0 0 0 Quemado......................... 43 79 46 82 / 0 0 0 0 Magdalena....................... 50 78 50 80 / 0 0 0 0 Datil........................... 44 77 46 80 / 0 0 0 0 Reserve......................... 43 86 46 86 / 0 0 0 0 Glenwood........................ 52 89 57 89 / 0 0 0 0 Chama........................... 38 74 41 75 / 5 0 0 0 Los Alamos...................... 50 76 52 76 / 0 0 0 0 Pecos........................... 48 76 47 77 / 0 0 0 0 Cerro/Questa.................... 43 73 44 75 / 0 0 0 0 Red River....................... 38 64 39 66 / 0 0 0 0 Angel Fire...................... 28 68 28 72 / 0 0 0 0 Taos............................ 38 76 40 78 / 0 0 0 0 Mora............................ 41 73 41 75 / 0 0 0 0 Espanola........................ 46 83 47 82 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe........................ 49 76 51 79 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe Airport................ 47 80 48 82 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Foothills........... 59 83 59 83 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 51 84 54 85 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 47 86 50 87 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 54 85 54 86 / 0 0 0 0 Belen........................... 45 85 45 86 / 0 0 0 0 Bernalillo...................... 50 86 51 86 / 0 0 0 0 Bosque Farms.................... 43 85 44 86 / 0 0 0 0 Corrales........................ 51 86 53 86 / 0 0 0 0 Los Lunas....................... 45 85 46 86 / 0 0 0 0 Placitas........................ 54 82 54 83 / 0 0 0 0 Rio Rancho...................... 52 85 53 85 / 0 0 0 0 Socorro......................... 54 88 55 89 / 0 0 0 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 49 76 47 78 / 0 0 0 0 Tijeras......................... 51 79 49 80 / 0 0 0 0 Edgewood........................ 44 80 44 80 / 0 0 0 0 Moriarty/Estancia............... 40 81 41 82 / 0 0 0 0 Clines Corners.................. 45 76 44 77 / 0 0 0 0 Mountainair..................... 47 79 45 81 / 0 0 0 0 Gran Quivira.................... 46 79 46 81 / 0 0 0 0 Carrizozo....................... 53 83 54 84 / 0 0 0 0 Ruidoso......................... 47 76 47 74 / 0 5 0 0 Capulin......................... 45 70 43 74 / 0 0 0 0 Raton........................... 42 76 42 78 / 0 0 0 0 Springer........................ 42 78 42 80 / 0 0 0 0 Las Vegas....................... 43 76 42 77 / 0 0 0 0 Clayton......................... 53 76 50 80 / 0 0 0 0 Roy............................. 47 77 46 77 / 0 0 0 0 Conchas......................... 50 84 49 82 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Rosa...................... 48 79 49 78 / 0 0 0 0 Tucumcari....................... 51 83 49 81 / 0 0 0 0 Clovis.......................... 56 87 53 82 / 0 0 0 0 Portales........................ 55 87 54 83 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Sumner..................... 51 85 51 82 / 0 0 0 0 Roswell......................... 58 91 59 88 / 0 0 0 0 Picacho......................... 52 85 52 81 / 0 5 0 0 Elk............................. 50 84 50 79 / 0 5 0 0 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...24 LONG TERM....77 AVIATION...71