947
FXUS65 KABQ 271120 AAA
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
520 AM MDT Fri Sep 27 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 215 AM MDT Fri Sep 27 2024

Warm and mostly dry weather will continue to prevail through the
middle of next week. A few gusty showers and storms could develop
in and around the northern mountains each afternoon Friday
through Sunday. High temperatures will threaten records in many
areas the next several days.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 215 AM MDT Fri Sep 27 2024

The most recent model guidance introduced slightly better chances
for showers and storms over the area today and especially Saturday.
A 592dm H5 high center near El Paso early this morning will drift
even farther south into northern Mexico today as a 60kt speed max
enters the Four Corners region. Surface high pressure building down
the Great Plains will help force a relatively moist backdoor cold
front into eastern NM today. High-based showers and storms will
develop over the northern mts then move southeastward into nearby
valleys and highlands thru late afternoon. High downdraft CAPE
values with large inverted-V profiles will lead to brief rain with
gusty outflows. Gap winds will also likely develop in the RGV by
late afternoon however erratic outflows in the area may disrupt the
more persistent easterly gusts thru the evening. Temps today will
trend several degrees cooler for the north and east but a few
records are possible again across the south and west. Temps will
trend warmer tonight with greater cloud cover and higher dewpoints.

The 00Z HREF, RRFS, NAM12, and latest NBM have trended toward
greater coverage of showers and storms across the northern mts
Saturday. A weak shortwave is shown moving southward down the Front
Range on a 50kt speed max while the H5 ridge becomes more amplified
over the Great Basin. Low to mid level moisture advection will help
PWATs rise to near 0.80" across northern and eastern NM. The 00Z
HREF probs for >0.10" are above 70% across the northern mts so PoPs
have been increased with no mention of dry activity. Max temps will
trend another couple degrees cooler north and east but remain 5 to
10F above normal across the south and west.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 215 AM MDT Fri Sep 27 2024

Any gusty showers and storms still out there will quickly die with
the loss of daytime heating Saturday evening. Ridging slides
overhead on Sunday, increasing subsidence and therefore limiting the
potential for any showers and storms to develop. Monday could end up
being the hottest day of the week with 500mb heights around 591dam.
Then, a trough over the northern High Plains will send a cold front
southward into New Mexico. The exact arrival time isn`t clear
yet, but it will likely reach the northeast corner of the state in
the evening and the central mountain chain around Midnight. The
sfc pressure gradient associated with this front is slightly more
impressive than the previous few ones so it could create some
gusty east winds through the gaps of the central mountain chain
Monday night.

October starts on Tuesday and models disagree significantly on how
to ring in the new month. Some are showing the potential for the
polar jet stream to dip further south into The Great Basin and into
the Four Corners region while others keep the ridge overhead and
have a strong troughing signal over the High Plains. The former
solution would likely create some breezy days along with slightly
cooler temps mid to late week whereas the latter would increase the
chance of another gusty backdoor front or two to invade from the
northeast. However, widespread precipitation appears unlikely either
way.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 514 AM MDT Fri Sep 27 2024

An area of smoke has settled into the ABQ metro from a prescribed
burn in the Jemez Mts. Visibility may fall below 5SM at times once
the sun rises. The focus will shift to SHRA/TS developing over the
northern mts after 1pm. This activity will move southeastward into
nearby valleys and highlands. Wind gusts may exceed 40 kt along
with patchy BLDU. A period of east canyon winds are also expected
to develop in the RGV with gusts around 30 kt possible at KABQ
near sunset. Mid level clouds will then persist well into tonight
across northern NM.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 215 AM MDT Fri Sep 27 2024

There are no critical fire weather conditions forecast for the next
7 days. Moisture will increase across northern and eastern NM today
as a backdoor cold front moves southwest into the area. A few high-
based showers and storms will form over the northern mts and move
southeast with gusty outflow winds likely. Another round of showers
and storms may occur Saturday with larger footprints of wetting
rainfall in the northern mts. Temperatures will trend cooler over
northern and eastern NM today and Saturday. Meanwhile, western NM
will remain dry and warm. The upper level high will continue to
dominate the region thru next week with very dry and warm weather.
There is still a potential strong backdoor cold front entering
eastern NM Monday night and Tuesday. Vent rates may be poor on
several days into next week for parts of the area.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  89  54  88  58 /   0   0   0   0
Dulce...........................  86  40  84  43 /  10  10   5   0
Cuba............................  85  50  82  51 /   5   5   5   0
Gallup..........................  87  44  88  44 /   0   0   0   0
El Morro........................  84  50  82  53 /   0   0   5   0
Grants..........................  88  47  85  47 /   0   0   0   0
Quemado.........................  85  51  84  51 /   0   0   0   0
Magdalena.......................  85  55  83  55 /   0   0   5   0
Datil...........................  84  49  81  51 /   0   0   5   0
Reserve.........................  92  50  89  48 /   5   0   0   0
Glenwood........................  95  58  92  61 /   5   0   0   0
Chama...........................  79  44  76  45 /  20  20  10   0
Los Alamos......................  80  56  78  55 /  20  20  10   0
Pecos...........................  82  54  76  51 /  20  20  10   0
Cerro/Questa....................  79  49  76  47 /  20  20  10   0
Red River.......................  67  44  65  42 /  20  20  10   0
Angel Fire......................  74  36  70  28 /  20  20  10   0
Taos............................  83  46  79  44 /  20  10   5   0
Mora............................  79  47  74  45 /  20  20  10   0
Espanola........................  89  53  86  50 /  10  10   5   0
Santa Fe........................  83  56  79  55 /  20  20  10   0
Santa Fe Airport................  86  53  83  52 /  10  20  10   0
Albuquerque Foothills...........  90  63  87  60 /  10  10  10   0
Albuquerque Heights.............  91  60  88  58 /   5  10  10   0
Albuquerque Valley..............  94  59  90  56 /   5   5  10   0
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  92  60  89  59 /   5   5  10   0
Belen...........................  94  54  90  53 /   0   5   5   0
Bernalillo......................  94  59  90  55 /   5  10  10   0
Bosque Farms....................  93  54  89  52 /   5   5   5   0
Corrales........................  94  59  90  57 /   5  10  10   0
Los Lunas.......................  93  56  89  54 /   5   5   5   0
Placitas........................  89  59  86  57 /  10  10  10   0
Rio Rancho......................  92  59  89  57 /   5  10  10   0
Socorro.........................  96  60  93  58 /   0   0   0   0
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  83  53  79  52 /  10  10  20   0
Tijeras.........................  87  55  83  54 /  10  10  10   0
Edgewood........................  87  49  83  47 /  10  20  10   0
Moriarty/Estancia...............  87  48  83  42 /  10  20  10   0
Clines Corners..................  82  49  78  48 /  10  20  10   0
Mountainair.....................  87  51  83  50 /   5  10  10   0
Gran Quivira....................  87  51  83  50 /   5  10  10   0
Carrizozo.......................  91  59  86  56 /   5   5   5   0
Ruidoso.........................  83  54  77  51 /   5   5   5   0
Capulin.........................  80  51  76  47 /  10  10   5   0
Raton...........................  84  51  81  47 /  10  10   5   0
Springer........................  86  50  82  47 /  10  10   5   0
Las Vegas.......................  82  49  77  46 /  20  20  10   0
Clayton.........................  85  55  83  53 /   5   5   0   0
Roy.............................  84  52  80  50 /  10  10   5   0
Conchas.........................  90  55  86  54 /   5  10   0   0
Santa Rosa......................  87  55  82  52 /   5  10   0   0
Tucumcari.......................  87  54  85  52 /   0  10   0   0
Clovis..........................  92  57  88  56 /   0   5   0   0
Portales........................  92  56  89  55 /   0   5   0   0
Fort Sumner.....................  92  56  87  55 /   0   5   0   0
Roswell.........................  95  62  92  60 /   0   0   0   0
Picacho.........................  89  56  85  55 /   0   5   0   0
Elk.............................  89  54  84  52 /   5   0   0   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...42
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...42