Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
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006 FXUS65 KABQ 221117 AAA AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 517 AM MDT Sun Sep 22 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 120 AM MDT Sun Sep 22 2024 Cooler and much quieter conditions will prevail today and Monday behind the departing storm system, with only a slight chance for showers and storms over the northern and central mountains. A few storms are possible Tuesday as well, focusing across the south central mountains and southeast plains. Otherwise, a warming trend is forecast from mid week through the weekend, with temperatures rising above normal areawide under the influence of high pressure. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Monday) Issued at 120 AM MDT Sun Sep 22 2024 The upper low has lifted into Colorado, and both segments (the Pacific and plains) of the surface cold front are overtaking NM. Showers and thunderstorms have dwindled significantly early this morning, but are not completely finished with a few more elevated cells expected to periodically impact the far eastern plains through daybreak. Winds have picked up from the north in most eastern plains locales, and a subtle veering in direction is expected through the morning as surface high pressure reorients itself just east of the NM central mountain chain. This will lead to a gusty gap wind in vulnerable locations within central parts of the state such as ABQ. Gusts may reach 20 to briefly 30 mph before tapering off some in the late afternoon. With more of an easterly surface component to the flow, much of the east slopes of the central mountain chain and the high eastern plains could remain shrouded in low stratus into the late morning and early to mid afternoon hours with some sprinkles or drizzle occasionally accompanying. Mostly clear skies will prevail in the majority of the western zones, but in north central mountain areas some building cumulus and isolated showers and storms will be possible. Thunderstorms would primarily favor the Tusas mountains near Chama where instability will still be present with cooler temperatures aloft. These will likely be weak and short-lived, only amounting to a few hundredths of liquid equivalent and perhaps a quick dusting of very high elevation snow above 11,000 ft. Overall forecast high temperatures for today were lowered a couple to a few degrees more, going on the cooler side of guidance, especially in the eastern half of the CWA where stratus are expected to stunt diurnal warming. Low stratus may return for some east slope areas of the central mountain chain tonight, and the gap wind may surge up for a few hours in the evening before gradually relaxing. The remnants of the upper low will move into the plains of KS/NE/MO/IA tonight and early Monday. Surface winds across most of central and eastern NM will veer in direction on Monday, turning more southerly over the plains while other areas carry a west or northwesterly component by the afternoon. Temperatures will warm up a few to several degrees with the plains undergoing the largest rises (generally 10 to 15 degrees), but many locations will still be a couple degrees shy of seasonal averages. The rising surface temperatures could produce just enough instability for isolated showers and thunderstorms over the northern, south central and southwestern mountains. The northern mountains could get some aid via a weak shortwave trough dropping out of Colorado, but the storm coverage and intensity would remain isolated and low Monday afternoon. && .LONG TERM... (Monday night through Saturday) Issued at 120 AM MDT Sun Sep 22 2024 A short-lived Rex block along the west coast will break-down Monday night and the upper high will move east across the Great Basin to the Rockies and NM by Wednesday with good agreement now among the 00Z medium range model solutions. Sufficient moisture will remain Tuesday across southeast and south central NM for isolated daytime heating triggered convection, which may impact the Sacramento Complex. However, instability will be limited and this is a low forecast confidence scenario given zero qpf from the 00Z GFS and ECMWF. An anomalously strong upper high over the region(for late September) will be the dominant weather feature from Wednesday into the weekend, with a warming trend that will take temperatures above normal areawide by Friday or Saturday. Otherwise, except for a brief gusty east canyon wind into the RGV Tuesday night, winds will be light through the forecast period. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 511 AM MDT Sun Sep 22 2024 Unsettled weather, mostly in the form of low ceilings, will linger into the late morning and early afternoon across the eastern half of New Mexico as a cold front has overtaken the plains and will eventually work westward into the Rio Grande valley and Continental Divide areas of New Mexico. This will keep scattered to broken low stratus clouds and drizzle over much of the eastern half of New Mexico with ceilings commonly dropping below 3000 ft (MVFR status) and localized areas of ceilings less than 1000 ft (IFR status). Ceilings will rise through the late morning and early afternoon, but may not fully erode away until very late in the afternoon. Low clouds could then redevelop along the east slopes of the central mountain chain (near KRTN, KLVS, KCQC, and KSRR) this evening. Dry and VFR conditions with no limits to ceilings/visibility are forecast for the western half of New Mexico today and tonight. A few isolated thunderstorms will be possible in the northern mountains near KE33 this afternoon with lightning, brief downpours and gusty winds. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 120 AM MDT Sun Sep 22 2024 In the wake of a cold front that was ushered in by a deep low pressure system, much cooler weather is forecast for today. Low clouds could be stubborn and somewhat persistent in the eastern half of NM, keeping temperatures below normal by 15 to 20 degrees today. Lower chances for showers and storms are also expected today while moderate east or northeast winds keep feeding into much of central and eastern NM. The winds could accelerate through the gaps and canyons within central NM where gusts may reach 25 to 30 mph today and this evening. Isolated showers or storms cannot be ruled out in the northern and southwestern NM mountains on Monday with warmer, but still slightly below normal, temperatures and more relaxed winds. Forecast models are changing their tune about a potential disturbance dropping into eastern NM on Tuesday with signs now pointing toward an inconsequential feature producing little to no rainfall. The warming trend would then likely continue through the rest of the week with mostly dry and fairly tranquil conditions expected to prevail. No critical fire weather is foreseen, but some drying of fuels could occur. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 72 46 78 47 / 10 5 0 0 Dulce........................... 65 38 73 37 / 20 20 10 0 Cuba............................ 66 42 72 44 / 10 10 5 0 Gallup.......................... 73 37 77 38 / 5 5 5 0 El Morro........................ 70 37 74 44 / 5 5 5 0 Grants.......................... 72 39 76 39 / 5 5 5 0 Quemado......................... 72 39 76 44 / 0 0 5 0 Magdalena....................... 71 45 75 51 / 0 0 10 5 Datil........................... 71 40 75 45 / 0 0 10 0 Reserve......................... 76 41 80 44 / 0 0 10 5 Glenwood........................ 80 48 83 54 / 0 0 10 5 Chama........................... 58 35 66 38 / 30 20 30 10 Los Alamos...................... 64 46 70 51 / 20 10 10 10 Pecos........................... 62 41 71 46 / 20 10 10 10 Cerro/Questa.................... 59 38 66 42 / 20 10 20 10 Red River....................... 53 33 60 38 / 20 10 30 10 Angel Fire...................... 55 30 64 29 / 20 10 30 10 Taos............................ 63 38 70 38 / 20 20 10 10 Mora............................ 56 38 69 40 / 20 10 20 10 Espanola........................ 70 45 77 47 / 20 10 5 0 Santa Fe........................ 67 46 73 49 / 20 10 5 5 Santa Fe Airport................ 71 44 76 46 / 10 10 5 5 Albuquerque Foothills........... 73 50 78 57 / 10 5 5 5 Albuquerque Heights............. 75 52 79 55 / 5 0 0 5 Albuquerque Valley.............. 77 46 81 50 / 5 0 0 5 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 75 49 79 53 / 5 5 0 0 Belen........................... 78 47 82 51 / 5 0 0 5 Bernalillo...................... 75 47 80 51 / 10 5 0 0 Bosque Farms.................... 77 45 81 48 / 5 0 0 5 Corrales........................ 75 47 80 50 / 5 0 0 0 Los Lunas....................... 78 46 81 49 / 5 0 0 5 Placitas........................ 73 47 78 54 / 10 5 0 0 Rio Rancho...................... 74 49 79 53 / 5 0 0 0 Socorro......................... 79 51 84 57 / 0 0 0 5 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 67 43 73 52 / 10 5 0 5 Tijeras......................... 69 44 75 51 / 10 0 0 5 Edgewood........................ 67 41 75 48 / 10 0 0 5 Moriarty/Estancia............... 69 39 77 41 / 10 5 0 5 Clines Corners.................. 63 41 72 46 / 20 5 5 5 Mountainair..................... 68 42 75 49 / 10 0 5 5 Gran Quivira.................... 68 41 76 48 / 10 0 5 5 Carrizozo....................... 71 49 77 55 / 10 5 10 5 Ruidoso......................... 61 41 71 49 / 10 5 20 10 Capulin......................... 54 38 70 44 / 30 5 20 10 Raton........................... 60 39 73 41 / 20 10 20 10 Springer........................ 64 40 75 42 / 10 5 10 5 Las Vegas....................... 61 40 73 43 / 20 10 10 5 Clayton......................... 58 43 74 51 / 20 5 5 10 Roy............................. 63 42 72 48 / 10 5 5 10 Conchas......................... 68 47 79 52 / 20 0 0 10 Santa Rosa...................... 66 46 77 51 / 10 5 0 5 Tucumcari....................... 65 46 78 52 / 20 5 0 10 Clovis.......................... 64 48 78 56 / 30 10 5 10 Portales........................ 64 48 78 55 / 30 10 5 10 Fort Sumner..................... 66 47 78 54 / 10 5 0 5 Roswell......................... 70 54 83 59 / 10 10 10 5 Picacho......................... 65 48 77 53 / 10 10 10 5 Elk............................. 65 46 76 51 / 10 10 20 5 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...52 LONG TERM....11 AVIATION...52