899
FXUS65 KABQ 210549 AAB
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1149 PM MDT Mon May 20 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 137 PM MDT Mon May 20 2024

A mostly dry and breezy to windy weather pattern will remain in
place over New Mexico for the next several days. Temperatures will
be warmest today, especially in southeastern areas of the state
where locations such as Roswell will once again flirt with 100
degrees for a high temperatures. Temperatures will cool a few
degrees on Tuesday across all of northern and central New Mexico,
and then eastern areas will observe additional cooling into
Wednesday. Through the end of the week and into the weekend,
temperatures will rebound in the east some with all areas staying
within a few degrees of normal for late May. The repeated gusty
winds and low humidity in the afternoons could lead to areas of
rapid fire spread.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 137 PM MDT Mon May 20 2024

The Pacific low has opened up and is currently a shortwave trough
moving northeast into AZ per the latest water vapor satellite
imagery, while a northern stream trough progresses east from the
Great Basin toward the central Rockies. Increasing southwest flow
over the area along with a deepening lee side trough is bringing
breezy to windy conditions this afternoon. Winds are forecast to
continue to increase into the early evening hours and be helped by
an area of virga, currently over AZ and forecast to pivot over
western NM through 06Z. A Wind Advisory is in effect through 02Z
across western and northwest portions of the area where gusts to
between 50-55mph will be common through 03Z. Stronger westerly winds
will shift east through central NM this evening, bringing gusty
winds through the RGV and out into the highlands. Showers will
briefly trend up over the northern mountains this evening may even
get a lightning strike or two given added forcing associated with
the northern stream trough approaching. Less wind and a little
cooling expected on Tuesday with a slight change in airmass
overnight, but breezy/gusty conditions are still forecast by
mid/late afternoon. A backdoor front will bring a wind shift and
some higher surface dewpoint temperatures to northeast and east
central NM late Tuesday night along with some low stratus between
Raton Pass and Clayton.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 137 PM MDT Mon May 20 2024

The backdoor front will wash out over the eastern plains of NM by
midday Wednesday with daytime temperatures there generally running
3 to 8 degrees below normal (similar to most remaining zones).
Into the afternoon, a surface trough will begin to become
established just east of the central mountain chain, but will not
have had much time to deepen. Consequently, wind speeds will be a
bit reduced with generally 15-25 kt of 700 mb flow that could be
occasionally mixed down to the surface within highland and south
central zones. Sufficient mid level moisture could be present over
north central areas for some virga and/or sprinkles and gusty
winds late in the day.

The 700 mb flow increases slightly into Thursday to 20-30 kt, and
the lee-side surface trough will deepen over eastern CO and
northeastern NM. This will lead to stronger surface gusts with all
areas gaining a couple to a few degrees of warming, especially in
the eastern areas that will observe the most downsloping.

A weak backdoor front will make a brief appearance in northeastern
zones Thursday night into Friday morning, but this should retreat
with yet another lee-side surface trough redeveloping Friday
afternoon. All-in-all, this front is not expected to have much
impact, only reducing temperatures in northeastern zones slightly,
and the afternoon surface trough will allow winds to quickly veer
southwesterly and turn a bit gusty again. The front may make a
second attempt to infiltrate northeastern NM Friday night into
Saturday morning, but again shouldn`t advance very far unless
convection in eastern CO really outdoes current modeling and a
stronger mesohigh develops.

Into the weekend, a shortwave trough will round southern CA and
enter CO on Saturday. This feature does not look to bring in much
Pacific moisture, but could produce decent coverage of showers
and storms over CO where the wave will meet up with deeper
boundary layer moisture from aforementioned fronts. For the bulk
of NM, this moisture will stay too far to the north with gusty
dry conditions redeveloping, not only Saturday afternoon but also
Sunday. The next backdoor front intrusion looks to possibly
overtake eastern NM Sunday night into Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1149 PM MDT Mon May 20 2024

VFR cigs across central NM will continue to break up and dissipate
these next few hours as two shortwave troughs combine over
Colorado. West winds will continue to taper off across western and
central TAF sites overnight. However, west winds will continue to
remain elevated across northeast and east central TAF sites as a
Pacific cold front moves through. Gusts of up to 30 kts are
possible. West winds increase areawide during the late morning
hours due to deep daytime mixing. Gusts of 25 to 35 kts will be
common with the strongest gusts across the northeast and central
highlands. Winds taper off to around 10 kts around sunset.
Additionally, a backdoor cold front with a northerly wind shift
enters northeast NM in the last few hours of the TAF period.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 137 PM MDT Mon May 20 2024

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS WESTERN AND PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL NM THROUGH THIS EVENING...

Critical fire weather conditions are developing across western and
portions of central NM currently and will persist into the evening
hours as stronger westerly winds progress east across the area.
The main rule this week is still hot, dry and unstable conditions
but with spotty critical fire weather conditions through Wednesday
and then the potential for more widespread critical conditions
toward the end of the work week with slightly increased westerly
flow aloft. The driest conditions this week will be across
southern portions of the area where many hours of single digit
humidity are forecast. An upper level trough will move east over
the region Saturday and bring stronger winds with the potential
for more critical fire weather conditions. ERC percentiles are low
across eastern portions of the area due to recent rainfall and
associated greenup, but that could change toward the end of the
work week and into the weekend after many days of drying. The 12Z
medium range model solutions are advertising an upper level ridge
shifting east across the Intermountain West from early to next
week, so we`ll likely see a significant downtrend in wind speeds
and the absence of critical fire weather conditions.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  80  44  74  39 /  10  20   0   0
Dulce...........................  74  35  69  32 /  10  40  10   0
Cuba............................  75  40  71  37 /   5  20   0   0
Gallup..........................  78  36  74  33 /  10  20   0   0
El Morro........................  71  39  71  36 /   5  20   0   0
Grants..........................  78  39  75  33 /   5  20   0   0
Quemado.........................  79  40  76  37 /  10  10   0   0
Magdalena.......................  81  48  79  47 /   0   0   0   0
Datil...........................  78  43  75  40 /   0   0   0   0
Reserve.........................  81  36  79  35 /   5   0   0   0
Glenwood........................  84  50  82  49 /   0   0   0   0
Chama...........................  69  34  63  31 /  10  50  10   0
Los Alamos......................  73  47  71  46 /   5  20   0   0
Pecos...........................  78  42  72  41 /   0  10   0   0
Cerro/Questa....................  72  40  64  37 /   0  40   5   0
Red River.......................  61  33  58  31 /   0  40   5   0
Angel Fire......................  71  34  61  28 /   0  40   0   0
Taos............................  77  39  70  33 /   0  30   0   0
Mora............................  74  42  69  37 /   0  20   0   0
Espanola........................  83  47  78  44 /   0  20   0   0
Santa Fe........................  76  46  73  46 /   5  20   0   0
Santa Fe Airport................  83  46  76  41 /   5  20   0   0
Albuquerque Foothills...........  82  53  79  52 /   5  10   0   0
Albuquerque Heights.............  83  52  81  50 /   0   5   0   0
Albuquerque Valley..............  86  51  83  46 /   0   5   0   0
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  84  52  80  49 /   0  10   0   0
Belen...........................  89  50  85  48 /   0   5   0   0
Bernalillo......................  84  52  81  48 /   5  10   0   0
Bosque Farms....................  86  49  83  46 /   0   5   0   0
Corrales........................  84  50  82  47 /   5  10   0   0
Los Lunas.......................  87  50  84  46 /   0   5   0   0
Placitas........................  81  52  78  49 /   5  10   0   0
Rio Rancho......................  82  51  81  48 /   5  10   0   0
Socorro.........................  94  54  87  51 /   0   0   0   0
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  79  48  73  46 /   5  10   0   0
Tijeras.........................  79  48  76  45 /   0  10   0   0
Edgewood........................  78  47  76  42 /   0   5   0   0
Moriarty/Estancia...............  82  43  77  38 /   0   5   0   0
Clines Corners..................  76  43  74  40 /   0   0   0   0
Mountainair.....................  82  48  76  44 /   0   5   0   0
Gran Quivira....................  84  46  77  44 /   0   0   0   0
Carrizozo.......................  87  55  81  53 /   0   0   0   0
Ruidoso.........................  84  51  75  49 /   0   0   0   0
Capulin.........................  80  45  73  40 /   0   0   0   5
Raton...........................  83  44  77  40 /   0   5   0   5
Springer........................  85  47  78  42 /   0   5   0   0
Las Vegas.......................  78  46  74  39 /   0   5   0   0
Clayton.........................  87  54  82  46 /   0   0   0   5
Roy.............................  83  50  79  44 /   0   0   0   0
Conchas.........................  89  56  87  50 /   0   5   0   0
Santa Rosa......................  87  55  85  48 /   0   0   0   0
Tucumcari.......................  93  56  89  48 /   0   0   0   0
Clovis..........................  96  58  89  52 /   0   0   0   0
Portales........................  95  58  89  52 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Sumner.....................  94  57  89  51 /   0   0   0   0
Roswell......................... 101  64  95  59 /   0   0   0   0
Picacho.........................  93  56  87  53 /   0   0   0   0
Elk.............................  89  55  84  51 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....52
AVIATION...71