Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
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569 FXUS65 KABQ 250614 AAB AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 1214 AM MDT Sat May 25 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 201 PM MDT Fri May 24 2024 A dangerous fire weather pattern is forecast Saturday as strong dry, warm and windy southwesterly flow expands over the state. Peak gusts of 40 to 55 mph will be possible most areas with high wind gusts to 60 mph expected over southwest Chaves County. Extreme fire weather conditions will focus through the south-central mountains, including Ruidoso. Blowing dust will also be a concern, notably near Roswell. Winds and critical fire weather conditions subside Sunday, and end by Memorial Day Monday. Dry and breezy to windy weather returns to the western half of the state Tuesday while chances for afternoon thunderstorms enters the northeastern plains, expanding to all of eastern NM Wednesday through Friday. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Saturday night) Issued at 201 PM MDT Fri May 24 2024 A pair of fast-moving upper level shortwaves approaching from the Great Basin tonight will force a 110 kt speed max and associated sharpening dry slot over NM thru Saturday. But first, southwest winds over the region this afternoon with very low humidity and unstable conditions will allow breezy conditions to continue thru sunset. Fires over the area are expected to pump out increasing amounts of smoke through sunset. The latest 18Z HRRR smoke forecast indicates near-surface smoke concentrations increasing tonight over the upper RGV from the Indios Fire and from Lincoln County to the Pecos River Valley from the Blue Fire. BlueSky model output also shows some of these areas reaching max PM2.5 values above 120 in immediate vicinity of the fires by Saturday morning. This would lead to unhealthy air quality for sensitive groups. Smoke remains in the forecast grids and messaging for air quality impacts was noted in the latest briefing package. Saturday will be a dynamic day across the region as the core of the upper level jet crosses central NM. The latest 18Z NAM shows surface low pressure deepening to near 988mb over southeast CO with deep mixing up to 15kft over central and eastern NM. 700-500mb layer winds of 45 to 55 kt will focus over southern and eastern NM with widespread surface wind gusts of 40 to 50 mph likely. The 12Z HREF ensemble wind gusts support Wind Advisories over the high plains of eastern NM with gusts in excess of 55 mph across southwest Chaves County where a High Wind Warning has also been issued. These strong winds along with several hours of single digit humidity, hot temps, and unstable conditions south and east of ABQ will allow any fires to spread rapidly with significant smoke transport likely. The 18Z HRRR shows the Indios and Blue fire plumes extending into Saturday night with additional smoke sources possible. BlueSky shows higher max concentrations of PM2.5 Saturday evening so air quality concerns are likely to continue or worsen. Meanwhile, winds will be gradually shifting from southwest to west through late Saturday afternoon as a weak cold front moves across NM. Cooler temps will arrive Saturday night across the north and west with higher humidity and lighter winds. Although winds will trend lighter Saturday night, locations along the east slopes of the central mt chain, including Ruidoso, will see gusty winds thru early Sunday morning as mountain wave activity continues in the wake of the departing upper level trough. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through Thursday) Issued at 201 PM MDT Fri May 24 2024 The shortwave trough responsible for amplifying Saturday`s wind and fire weather conditions will exit over the central Great Plains by Sunday. Winds will lessen as the pressure gradient relaxes over NM. Wind speeds of 15 to 25 mph will still support breezy to locally windy conditions along and just east of the central mountain chain. Winds relax further on Memorial Day Monday as a ridge of high pressure begins to move in from the west and the leading edge of a backdoor cold front noses into northeastern NM. Monday`s forecast highs rise 3F to 7F most areas except behind the front in far northeastern NM, with 60s and 70s in the higher terrain, 80s in the mid-elevations, and 90s in lower valley areas by Socorro and the eastern plains south of I-40. A shift to a two-faced weather pattern over NM begins to take shape Tuesday with dry, warm and windy southwesterly flow returning to the western two-thirds of the state. Moisture from the Great Plains and Gulf of Mexico will begin to swash west and east each night and day through eastern NM. This higher moisture looks to only be present in far eastern NM along the TX border and the northeastern plains Tuesday afternoon. Afternoon thunderstorm activity will favor this area as a result. Outflow from these storms will push this moisture westward to the central mountain chain with an east canyon wind at Albuquerque and Santa Fe favored. Afternoon thunderstorm coverage Wednesday will expand over eastern NM as a result. Thursday and Friday see a continued troughing pattern over the western CONUS producing dry, warm and windy southwesterly flow over the western half of NM. This pattern will amplify, pushing low-level moisture back east toward TX a bit, reducing the coverage of afternoon thunderstorms both of these days to end next week. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1143 PM MDT Fri May 24 2024 The jetstream will move over NM Saturday morning, then linger overhead through the day, with strong winds areawide. Winds will begin gusting out of the southwest in the morning, then the wind direction will shift out of the west during the afternoon and evening as a Pacific cold front crosses from the west. Vigorous thermals will develop over eastern areas, where high temperatures will climb as much as 8 degrees above 1991-2020 averages. The Indios Fire near Gallinas Peak and the Blue 2 Fire in the northern Sacramento Mountains are expected to billow with well- developed smoke plumes stretching toward the northeast Saturday afternoon, then toward the east Saturday evening. The Blue Fire`s plume will probably expand rapidly during mid to late morning, and continue into the late night hours near and southwest of the fire; including over KSRR where an MVFR ceiling is likely late Saturday night with a risk of visibility reduction as well. You may view the HRRR Model`s Forecast Smoke Loop at https://shorturl.at/aCnlW. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 201 PM MDT Fri May 24 2024 ...DANGEROUS FIRE GROWING PATTERN WILL PEAK SATURDAY WITH WIDESPREAD CRITICAL TO LOCALLY EXTREME FIRE WEATHER EXPECTED... The ongoing fire growing pattern will peak on Saturday as an upper level trough and associated dry slot shifts over NM. Ridge top winds will remain elevated tonight with poor humidity recovery over much of the region. Low humidity before sunrise will lead into widespread critical to locally extreme fire weather by noon with 20ft southwest winds gusting to between 35 and 45 mph by early afternoon. Above normal temps and high Haines across southern and eastern areas will coincide with an extended duration of single digit humidity. Winds will gradually shift out of the west thru late Saturday afternoon and early evening as a weak cold front slides across NM. Critical conditions will taper off Saturday evening however west winds will remain gusty along the east slopes of the central mt chain with mt wave activity in the wake of the departing trough. One more day of critical conditions is possible over the high plains of eastern NM Sunday but with lighter winds and higher humidity. Relief will finally arrive beginning Monday as a weak upper level ridge builds over NM next week. Winds will trend lighter through Thursday while moisture begins to slosh westward from west TX into eastern NM. The coverage of storms with wetting rainfall may also increase over eastern NM in this pattern. The warmest temps of this season are likely for central and western NM next week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 47 78 44 79 / 0 5 0 0 Dulce........................... 40 72 34 75 / 0 10 0 0 Cuba............................ 43 73 40 74 / 0 0 0 0 Gallup.......................... 39 74 36 77 / 0 0 0 0 El Morro........................ 40 70 38 72 / 0 0 0 0 Grants.......................... 41 75 38 78 / 0 0 0 0 Quemado......................... 41 74 38 75 / 0 0 0 0 Magdalena....................... 49 78 47 79 / 0 0 0 0 Datil........................... 43 73 41 74 / 0 0 0 0 Reserve......................... 36 78 34 82 / 0 0 0 0 Glenwood........................ 50 81 49 85 / 0 0 0 0 Chama........................... 37 66 33 69 / 0 10 0 0 Los Alamos...................... 51 74 48 74 / 0 0 0 0 Pecos........................... 46 74 45 74 / 0 0 0 0 Cerro/Questa.................... 40 67 39 68 / 0 0 0 0 Red River....................... 37 63 34 66 / 0 0 0 0 Angel Fire...................... 36 66 34 67 / 0 0 0 0 Taos............................ 39 74 37 74 / 0 0 0 0 Mora............................ 46 72 44 72 / 0 0 0 0 Espanola........................ 51 81 47 82 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe........................ 48 76 47 77 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe Airport................ 47 80 45 80 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Foothills........... 55 82 53 82 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 54 84 51 84 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 53 86 50 86 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 54 84 52 84 / 0 0 0 0 Belen........................... 51 87 50 86 / 0 0 0 0 Bernalillo...................... 55 84 51 85 / 0 0 0 0 Bosque Farms.................... 50 86 49 86 / 0 0 0 0 Corrales........................ 52 85 51 85 / 0 0 0 0 Los Lunas....................... 50 86 50 85 / 0 0 0 0 Placitas........................ 54 80 51 80 / 0 0 0 0 Rio Rancho...................... 54 83 52 84 / 0 0 0 0 Socorro......................... 54 90 52 90 / 0 0 0 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 51 75 48 74 / 0 0 0 0 Tijeras......................... 49 79 46 77 / 0 0 0 0 Edgewood........................ 48 79 45 78 / 0 0 0 0 Moriarty/Estancia............... 45 81 44 80 / 0 0 0 0 Clines Corners.................. 46 75 45 74 / 0 0 0 0 Mountainair..................... 49 80 45 77 / 0 0 0 0 Gran Quivira.................... 46 80 45 78 / 0 0 0 0 Carrizozo....................... 55 83 52 82 / 0 0 0 0 Ruidoso......................... 52 75 49 75 / 0 0 0 0 Capulin......................... 42 77 42 75 / 0 0 0 0 Raton........................... 41 80 43 80 / 0 0 0 0 Springer........................ 44 81 45 80 / 0 0 0 0 Las Vegas....................... 48 76 46 77 / 0 0 0 0 Clayton......................... 48 86 52 83 / 0 0 0 0 Roy............................. 48 81 48 80 / 0 0 0 0 Conchas......................... 53 89 54 88 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Rosa...................... 54 85 54 83 / 0 0 0 0 Tucumcari....................... 53 91 56 89 / 0 0 0 0 Clovis.......................... 54 93 58 90 / 0 0 0 0 Portales........................ 53 95 57 91 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Sumner..................... 54 91 57 89 / 0 0 0 0 Roswell......................... 57 98 60 95 / 0 0 0 0 Picacho......................... 55 87 54 87 / 0 0 0 0 Elk............................. 53 85 51 85 / 0 0 0 0 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 9 PM MDT Saturday for NMZ101- 104>106-109-120>126. Wind Advisory from noon to 7 PM MDT Saturday for NMZ223-224- 226>229-231>233-239. Fire Weather Watch from Sunday afternoon through Sunday evening for NMZ125. High Wind Warning from noon to 7 PM MDT Saturday for NMZ240. && $$ SHORT TERM...42 LONG TERM....24 AVIATION...44