767
FXAK69 PAFG 021410
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
610 AM AKDT Sun Jun 2 2024

.SYNOPSIS...An upper level low dropping south from the Arctic
along the west coast will open the door for easterly waves to
bring showers and thunderstorms to the Interior each afternoon.
Seasonable temperatures expected. Out west, northerly Gale force
winds will continue through the Bering Strait through at least
Tuesday. A convergence zone will form today along the Dalton
Highway corridor stretching from around Coldfoot north to
Deadhorse. This will bring a mix of precipitation, with rain
expected south of the Brooks Range, a mix of rain and snow over
Brooks Range Passes, and a mix of rain, snow, and freezing rain on
the North Slope and Arctic Coast through early Monday morning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Analysis and Model Discussion...A ridge of high pressure aloft
that brought sunny and warm conditions to the Interior on Saturday
will slowly break down starting Sunday as a deep Arctic trough
digs south over the West Coast. This trough will bring cooler
conditions across the area and open up the door for easterly wave
after easterly wave to move through the Central and Eastern
Interior, bringing showers and thunderstorms each afternoon
through at least the middle of the week. On Sunday and Monday as
the ridge weakens with the trough digging south, a convergence
zone will set up from the northern Interior north across the
Brooks Range to the Arctic Coast. This will bring precipitation,
heavy at times, to the Dalton Highway corridor. Accumulating snow
is likely over Atigun Pass, across much of the Arctic Plain, and
north to Prudhoe Bay. Freezing rain is even possible north of the
Brooks Range with ice accumulations of a light glaze. High
pressure over the western Chukchi Sea combined with very low
pressure over Interior Alaska will cause sustained Gale or near
Gale force winds through the Bering Strait through at least
Wednesday.

Models are in good agreement on the overall pattern aloft and on
placement and timing of shortwaves and precipitation. We will use
a blend of models for the forecast and make pretty minimal changes
from the inherited forecast. A few changes we will make are to
increase PoPs to likely for much of the Central Interior on Monday
and Tuesday afternoons. We will also expand the area of
thunderstorms and increase the coverage of thunderstorms across
the Interior on Tuesday afternoon. Out west, we will make minor
tweaks to the winds to match up with observations and latest model
guidance.

Central and Eastern Interior...A shortwave trough moving west through
the central Interior this morning will form a convergence zone
with flow from the southwest from McGrath to Tanana to Coldfoot.
This will bring widely scattered afternoon thunderstorms and
locally heavy rain showers. Isolated thunderstorms are expected
across the rest of the area except mainly dry conditions
southeast of Salcha. Another shortwave trough from the east will
bring additional showers and thunderstorms on Monday as well as
Tuesday. This pattern looks to hold through much of next week.
High temperatures will be in the upper 60s to mid 70s.

West Coast and Western Interior...Temperatures in the Northwest
Arctic Borough will be cooler today as an upper level low begins
to drop south over the area. The cooling will spread to the rest
of the area on Monday. Gale to near Gale force winds will continue
through the Bering Strait through at least Tuesday. Scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected in the Interior
with mainly dry conditions near the coast.

North Slope and Brooks Range...An upper level low dropping south
from the Arctic will bring colder temperatures west of Nuiqsut
while warmer air remains aloft to the east. This setup along with
shortwaves moving through the flow from the east will set up an
interesting convergence zone from the Central Brooks Range north
along the Dalton Highway to Deadhorse. A mix of precipitation is
expected in this area, with up to 4 inches of snow below 5000 feet
and up to 6 inches above 5000 feet. The best chance for freezing
rain near Prudhoe Bay looks to be Monday morning. Conditions
remain rather wet on Monday and Tuesday, though precipitation
should be mainly rain.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...After yesterday`s near Red Flag conditions, cooler
and wetter conditions are expected the next few days with only a
few spots in the Yukon Flats reaching the mid 70s for highs.
Thunderstorms will be the main story of the forecast as shortwave
trough after shortwave trough make their way in from the east over
the next few days. This pattern will remain quite persistent
through at least Wednesday. Widely scattered thunderstorms are
expected today from Nikolai to Manley Hot Springs to Coldfoot and
east across the White Mountains and Yukon Flats. Monday, expect
widely scattered thunderstorms in the Interior north of Fairbanks
and east of Indian Mountain. More widely scattered thunderstorms
are expected across the Upper Yukon Valley and Upper Koyukuk
Valley on Tuesday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...The water level in Fort Yukon will continue
receding very slowly. Satellites and ground observations continue
to indicate abundant snow in the Porcupine Mountains. As
temperatures warm this week, snowmelt could lead to continued high
water along the Porcupine and the interrelated sloughs.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...None.
PK...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ801-802.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ803-852.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ804-805-811-851-857.
     Gale Warning for PKZ806-854.
     Gale Warning for PKZ807.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ808>810.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ812.
     Gale Warning for PKZ816-817.
     Gale Warning for PKZ850.
     Gale Warning for PKZ853.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ855.
     Gale Warning for PKZ856.
&&

$$

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