739
FXAK67 PAJK 272233
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
233 PM AKDT Mon May 27 2024

.SHORT TERM...Story of the next 36 hours is a trending down of conditions. A
surface low off the coast of Prince of Wales Island is currently
generating up to 20 knot winds in Clarence Strait and the southern
outer waters. Associated with this system is likely showers for the
southern panhandle with Petersburg, Wrangell, Ketchikan, and Klawock
currently reporting rain. As stated previously, the story is a
trending down in conditions, with a broad ridge spreading over the
panhandle Wednesday. Precipitation will be trending down overnight
as the low slowly fills and drifts southward, with increasingly
drier weather Wednesday. There still exists a slight chance of a
shower, with low level moisture present across the AOR. Chances for
precipitation almost disappear Wednesday afternoon and into the
evening.

.LONG TERM.../ Wednesday through Saturday/ Guidance is continuing
to lean more and more towards a break in precipitation on
Wednesday with a weak surface ridge building in over the
panhandle. While this will lead to a shift to onshore flow, being
on the northern downstream side of the ridge should mean any
precipitation that does develop due to orographic effects along
the coast should be minimal and any showers should be light and
short lived. For Thursday however, a short wave trough will
enhance the chance of showers making their way to the inside
waters.

After this short period of relatively drier weather, model
guidance continues to converge on a well established front pushing
across the Alaskan Gulf and impacting SE AK later on Friday. With
the advancing front, winds in the Gulf will likely switch to be
more out of the SE by Thursday morning. While exact timing
remains uncertain, ensemble means are trending toward winds of
around 30 to 35 kt likely along the outer coast ahead of the front
Friday afternoon. Depending upon the orientation of the boundary,
this will lead to small craft conditions for parts of the inner
channels as the front begins to push inland, with the duration
impacted by the momentum of the front. The northward momentum of
the front will also depend on the overall strength and
positioning of the parent low feature in the northwestern Gulf,
which continues to fluctuate with consecutive model runs. Overall
expect a wet and breezy end to the week for the panhandle, with
rain continuing at least through Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION.../Through Tuesday afternoon/...3000/5 or better with a
few places as low as 1000/3 in lingering shower activity. Impactful
turbulence or LLWS expected only over the southern inner channels
on Tuesday morning. For all the flightseeing people out there,
take pictures of beautiful scenery. Also, take some good snaps of
airports that you are arriving at or departing from. Feel free to
emails them to WFO Juneau for inclusion in our growing local area
pilot`s weather handbook!


&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PCs.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NC
LONG TERM....STJ
AVIATION...Fritsch

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