148
FXUS61 KAKQ 282347
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
747 PM EDT Tue May 28 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Mild and drier conditions are expected across the region
through late week, though some isolated late day showers or
thunderstorms will be possible over far northern portions of our
area this afternoon and Wednesday. Pleasant and less humid
conditions are expected for Thursday through Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
As of 300 PM EDT Tuesday...

Key Messages:

- An isolated shower or storm is possible over far northern
  portions of the area. Otherwise, dry and pleasant tonight.

GOES water vapor channels depict an upper trough extending from
the Great Lakes to the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast this
afternoon. Surface low pressure is located over southern QB with
the associated cold front mainly offshore of the Delmarva
coast, but lagging back into the Coastal Carolinas. A few
showers/tstms have developed along this boundary but are S of
the Albemarle Sound. A shortwave trough lifting across the
northern Mid- Atlantic is triggering isolated showers and
potentially a few tstms across northern VA and MD. A few of
these could clip the northern tier of the area through early
evening. Otherwise, dry and pleasant tonight with low
temperatures ranging from the mid 50s NW to the mid 60s SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 300 PM EDT Tuesday...

Key Messages:

- Scattered showers and storms possible across the north once
  again on Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday evening.

- Pleasant and comfortable Thursday and Friday.

A vigorous upper trough and associated secondary cold front
will dive SE and reach the Mid-Atlantic Wednesday afternoon and
evening. This will trigger isolated to scattered showers, with
the greatest coverage across the northern and northeastern tier
of the area (mainly NE of the I-64 corridor). Cooler
temperatures aloft will allow for the development of some modest
instability (< 500 J/kg of MLCAPE) by the afternoon as bulk
shear and mid-level lapse rates increase slightly. So while
widespread severe is not anticipated, a few tstms (and
potentially even a stronger tstm or two) are certainly possible.
Will keep PoPs in the 30-40% range north of I-64, with little
or no rain chances south of RIC metro to Hampton Roads/NE NC.
The cold front pushes offshore Wednesday night with high
pressure building across the region for Thursday and Friday.
This will bring dry and pleasant conditions for the latter
portion of the week.

Highs Wednesday are mainly in the upper 70s to lower 80s.
Cooler Wednesday night with lows in the 50s for most of the
area, and near 60F/lower 60s for the far SE. Highs Thursday and
Friday are generally in the 70s and dewpoints only in the upper
40s to lower 50s under a mostly sunny sky. Lows Friday morning
potentially drop into the upper 40s for the Piedmont, with 50s
for most of the area, and around 60F far SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 300 PM EDT Tuesday...

Key Message:

- Gradually warming temperatures return Sunday into early next
  week.

An upper ridge builds across the East Coast over the weekend
into early next as surface high pressure settles offshore. This
will bring mainly dry conditions and warming temperatures. A
dampening trough tries to push across the top of the ridge
Sunday into early next week, but PoPs are no higher than climo
at this time. Highs trend back into the 80s this weekend into
early next week, with lows in the 50s to begin the medium range
period and then 60s later in the weekend into early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 745 PM EDT Tuesday...

Low pressure is centered well N of the region as of 23z and its
associated cold front has pushed S of the Albemarle Sound. VFR
with FEW-SCT clearing skies and a W-NW wind of 5-10kt (locally
NE at ORF). Latest radar shows a few showers NE of RIC and a few
storms S of ECG. These are expected to come to an end soon.
Otherwise, dry and VFR tonight with a calm to very light
variable wind. An upper trough slides across the region
Wednesday. This has the potential to trigger isolated to
scattered showers/tstms during the aftn, with chances ranging
from 15-20% S to 30-40% N. The wind will mainly be WSW 5-10kt
inland and NNE along the coast.

Dry and VFR conditions prevail Thursday through Sunday as high
pressure builds across the region.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 250 PM EDT Tuesday...

Key Message:

- Relatively benign marine conditions are expected through the week.

Light and variable winds across the waters this afternoon with a
stalled front near the area. Seas are generally 2-3 ft and waves in
the bay are 1 ft or less. The front drops S tonight, briefly
shifting winds to the S and then to the N early Wednesday. Winds
again become variable Wednesday afternoon before a secondary cold
front drops through the waters late Thursday night into Wednesday
morning. This will likely produce a brief surge of northerly winds
to around 15 kt in the Chesapeake Bay. There is a low-medium chance
(around 15-20% per local wind probs) that small craft advisories
will be needed. Winds relax some, but remain northerly, for Thursday
afternoon/evening. There will likely be another surge of cooler air
Friday morning and winds again increase to around 15 kt. Similar to
the Wed night/Thu morning event, this is looking mainly sub-SCA (but
cannot completely rule them out). Waves in the bay increase to 2-3
ft during these surges, but average 1-2 ft otherwise. Seas remain 2-
3 ft through the period. Mainly benign conditions into the weekend
with high pressure near the area.

The rip current risk remains low tomorrow (Wednesday) and
Thursday given mainly 2 ft nearshore breaking waves and light
winds.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AJZ/MAM
NEAR TERM...AJZ
SHORT TERM...AJZ/MAM
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...AJZ/AM
MARINE...SW