173
FXUS61 KAKQ 230027
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
827 PM EDT Wed May 22 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will remain situated off the Southeast coast
through the end of the week. A cold front approaches from the
northwest Thursday with daily chances for showers and
thunderstorms to end the week and into the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
As of 815 PM EDT Wednesday...

Key message:

- A slight chance for a shower across the far N/NW.

High pressure is situated well off the southeast coast this
evening, with low pressure across the Great Lakes, and a weak
lee trough still noticeable in the pressure field just to the
west of our FA. Aloft, the flow is from the W, around a flat
ridge extending from the Gulf of Mexico ENE to a position off
the Carolina coast. It remains quite warm, with temperatures
still mostly in the upper 70s/lower 80s W of the Bay, with upper
60s to mid 70s on the eastern shore. With the loss of daytime
heating, and the main upper trough still off to the W, the
convection that developed across the Appalachians has
weakened/diminished by the time it reached into far western
sections of the CWA. With little to no instability to the E, it
appears that showers and any embedded storms will struggle to
hold together overnight locally. Some of the CAMs suggest an
isolated shower will still be possible over the far N/NW
overnight so will keep a slight chc mention (15-20%) PoP there,
but 10% or less elsewhere. Variably cloudy overnight and rather
warm with lows in the mid to upper 60s for most areas.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 250 PM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

- Summerlike and more humid Thursday with high temperatures in
  the mid 80s to around 90F.

- Chances for thunderstorms later Thursday into Thursday
  evening. A few of these storms may be strong to severe.

An upper trough and cold front approach from the NW on Thursday.
850mb temperatures will still be ~16C supporting highs once
again in the mid 80s to near 90F, (lower to mid 80s over the far
NW and the eastern shore). The upper trough and cold front will
provide a trigger for showers/tstms in a moderately unstable
airmass with strong surface heating and dewpoints in the mid to
upper 60s. This combined with 500mb flow of 30-40kt could result
in a few stronger to severe tstms. SPC has maintained a
marginal risk for our area. However, some of the CAMs are
looking more robust with respect to thunderstorm
coverage/intensity late Thursday, especially along and south of
the VA Hwy 460 corridor. Primary threats will be localized
damaging wind gusts and hail. Showers/tstms diminish in coverage
Thursday night with low temperatures ranging through the 60s.
The front stalls in vicinity of the area Friday. However, 12z/22
model guidance has continued to trend downward with shower/tstm
chances. Forecast PoPs range from 20-30% E to 30-40% W Friday
afternoon. Continued warm and moderately humid Friday with highs
in the lower to mid 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 250 PM EDT Wednesday...

Key Message:

- Remaining warm, and somewhat unsettled through the weekend
  with chances for mainly afternoon/evening showers and
  thunderstorms.

The lingering frontal boundary stalls over the region over the
weekend and into Memorial Day and through Tuesday as well. In
addition, westerly mid and upper level flow will allow for a
series of shortwaves to move across the region. Confidence on
timing is very low, so the forecast will continue with daily
chances of mainly afternoon/evening showers/tstms. High
temperatures will mainly be in the 80s with low temperatures in
the 60s through the weekend and into early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 800 PM EDT Wednesday...

High pressure remains offshore this evening, with low pressure
across the Great Lakes. Scattered showers and isolated tstms
that developed over the Appalachians have generally
weakened/diminished as they approached western and northern
portions of the area. VFR conditions prevail, with little to no
chance for any rain into the CWA, though the sky has become
partly-mostly cloudy with debris clouds (CIGs 15-25k ft).
Partly cloudy overnight, with SSW winds averaging 5-10 kt,
enough mixing to keep fog from developing. A cold front
approaches the area Thursday bringing with it a chance for
showers/tstms along with possible flight restrictions, primarily
during the mid/late aftn and evening timeframe. A few storms
will be capable of bringing strong/gusty winds. Still too much
uncertainty w/ coverage and have handled the late aftn/early
evening period with VCTS wording in the TAFs.

The front looks to stall in the vicinity of the region Friday-
Monday, bringing daily chances for mainly afternoon/evening
showers/tstms.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 310 PM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

- Benign conditions expected on the waters through the Holiday
weekend.

- Shower and storm chances return Thursday afternoon and are
possible again over the holiday weekend.

High pressure is slowly shifting farther out to sea this afternoon,
as a storm system, located over the Great Lakes, and a cold front,
that stretches across the Ohio Valley, starts to approach from the
NW. Expect SSE winds 10-15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt this evening to
become SSW 5-15kt overnight tonight into Thu morning. Shower and
storm chances will increase on Thursday afternoon and evening hours,
with the front`s approach.  But the front will be weakening as it
arrives and stall across the region.  It will then waffle back and
forth across the area through the Holiday weekend.  While this will
keep the chances for showers and thunderstorms in the forecast
through the weekend into early next week, the winds and seas will
remain below sca levels through the weekend. Overall expect winds
below 10 kts and seas 2 - 3 ft over the ocean and 1 - 2 ft in the
Bay and area rivers.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
As of 315 PM EDT Wednesday...

Another round of nuisance to minor tidal flooding is expected to
occur later tonight into Thu morning, particularly for the
middle Chesapeake Bay and tidal portions of the Rappahannock
River and southern shore of the tidal Potomac, due to the higher
astronomical high tides remaining elevated.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...JDM/LKB
SHORT TERM...AJZ/JDM
LONG TERM...AJZ/JDM
AVIATION...JDM/LKB
MARINE...ESS/TMG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AKQ