668
FXUS61 KAKQ 231543
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
1143 AM EDT Thu May 23 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front approaches from the northwest today bringing
scattered late afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms.
The boundary weakens and pushes south Friday with less coverage
of afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms. The front
lifts back north Saturday with daily chances of afternoon and
evening showers and thunderstorms continuing through the
Memorial Day weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1140 AM EDT Thursday...

Key message:

- Lessening chances for strong to severe thunderstorms this
  afternoon and evening.

An upper ridge axis has shifted offshore of the Mid-Atlantic
coast as of midday, with surface high pressure situated off the
Southeast coast. An upper trough continues to dig across the
Great Lakes with a cold front trailing into the Ohio Valley.
This trough and cold front will push E later today and is still
expected to provide a trigger for afternoon and evening
showers/tstms. However, coverage of these showers and storms
looks to be less than what was thought just 12-24 hours ago as
newest CAMs are suggesting a split around central VA with
activity favoring northern VA and down across North Carolina.
Thus, have lowered PoPs for the rest of today, especially before
20Z (4PM), with 40-50% for much of the FA late this afternoon
and evening. Having said that, there is still the potential for
an isold severe storm between 4-9 pm as deep layer shear will
be on the order of 30-40kt, along with mean surface-based CAPE
of 1000-1500 J/kg, aided by high temps in the mid 80s to around
90F, with even lower to mid 80s at the coast. SPC has
maintained a marginal risk across the Mid-Atlantic for the Day
1 outlook thus far, so we will continue to monitor trends as we
head through the afternoon.

Showers/tstms diminish in coverage later this evening into the
early overnight hours tonight. Partly to mostly cloudy with low
temperatures in the mid to upper 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 335 AM EDT Thursday...

Key Messages:

- Summerlike with less coverage of showers and thunderstorms
  Friday.

- Continued summerlike Saturday with the potential for more
  coverage of afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms.

The initial boundary settles into the Carolinas by Friday with
shortwave ridging building across the Mid-Atlantic. Therefore,
coverage of showers/tstms should be less Friday with PoPs
ranging from at or below 15% NE to 30-40% S and SW (which may be
generous). Remaining summer-like and rather hot Friday with
highs in the mid to upper 80s inland, and upper 70s to lower 80s
at the coast due to a developing sea-breeze in weak flow. Mild
Friday night with lows in the 60s. There is not much of a
trigger for showers (or evening tstms), but a ~20% PoP will be
maintained in a warm and rather humid airmass. 23/00z guidance
has some broad consistency in showing shortwave energy arriving
Saturday in westerly mid/upper level flow, with the boundary
lifting back to the N, but confidence in the details remains
low. Given this, PoPs for mainly afternoon/evening showers/tstms
are 30-40% across the entire area. Highs Saturday will once
again be in the mid to upper 80s, with upper 70s to lower 80s
toward the coast.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 335 AM EDT Thursday...

Key Message:

- Remaining warm and humid Sunday into Memorial Day with the
  potential for showers and thunderstorms Memorial Day.

Continued warm and humid Saturday night with any showers/tstms
diminishing in coverage as shortwave ridging arrives in the
westerly flow aloft. Lows will mainly be in the 60s. Highs
Sunday will once again be in the mid to upper 80s inland with
upper 70s to lower 80s toward the coast. Less coverage of
showers/tstms are expected Sunday afternoon/evening as broad
ridging prevails, with PoPs less than 15% NE to ~30% SW. 23/00z
EPS/GEFS depict an anomalous trough digging from the Great
Lakes to the Northeast Monday through Wednesday with a cold
front pushing through the Mid- Atlantic. Confidence on timing
remains on the low-side, but given the strength of the trough
more coverage of showers/tstms are possible in the Memorial
Day/Monday night timeframe. Highs Memorial Day will once again
be rather hot in the mid 80s to around 90F (slightly lower at
the coast), with highs trending down into the upper 70s to lower
80s toward the middle of next week with drier air also arriving
into the region.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 655 AM EDT Thursday...

High pressure is centered off the Southeast coast as of 11z.
VFR under a mostly sunny sky with a SSW wind of 8-12kt. A cold
front approaches from the W today bringing a chc of
showers/tstms, primarily during the mid-late aftn and evening
timeframe (after 20z). Primarily VFR through this evening, with
the exception of brief flight restrictions (mainly vsby) in
showers/tstms. The wind will be SW 8-12kt today outside of
tstms. Tempo groups for thunder have been added to RIC and SBY
with VCTS maintained for ORF, PHF, and ECG given later timing.

The front stalls in the vicinity of the region Friday-Monday,
bringing daily chances for mainly afternoon/evening
showers/tstms. Chances for showers/tstms are mainly 15-20% NE to
30-40% SW Friday, 30-40% across the area Saturday, and 15% or
less NE to 20-30% SW Sunday. There is the potential for more
coverage of showers/tstms Monday as an upper trough approaches
from the NW.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 355 AM EDT Thursday...

Key Messages:

- Benign conditions expected on the waters through the Holiday
weekend.

- Shower and storm chances are expected for this afternoon and
  evening and are possible again over the holiday weekend.

Early this morning, sfc high pressure was centered well off the
Mid Atlc coast, while a cold front was approaching the area from
the NW. Winds were SSW 5-15 kt with a few gusts up to 20 kt
across the waters. Waves were 1-2 ft and seas were 2-3 ft.

Shower and storm chances will increase this aftn into this
evening, with the front`s approach. But the front will be
weakening as it arrives and stall across the region. It will
then waffle back and forth across the area through the Holiday
weekend. While this will keep the chances for showers and tstms
in the forecast through the weekend into early next week, the
winds and seas will remain below sca levels through the period.
Overall expect wind speeds 5-15 kt, with seas 2-3 ft and waves
1-2 ft.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...JDM
SHORT TERM...AJZ
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...AJZ
MARINE...ESS/TMG