505
FXUS61 KALY 260711
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
311 AM EDT Thu Sep 26 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Rain showers with a few embedded thunderstorms will continue
today as a cold front moves across the region. Drier weather
will return the area tomorrow with mostly dry weather then
expected through the weekend. Rain chances will once again
increase by midweek as the next cold front approaches the
area.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Another unsettled period once again expected today as an
elongated area of low pressure and associated front continue to
impact the region. Early morning radar imagery showing light
returns moving through the Capital District, with additional
activity noted upstream across western New York. With time this
morning, expect additional development as main upper-level wave
and sfc frontal boundary begin to approach the area. CAMs to
include the 3km NAM and HRRR seem to have good agreement on this
scenario, with widespread rains developing towards daybreak.
Given slow overall movement of the upper wave, rain will
continue though much of the day before gradually beginning to
end from north to south during the late afternoon and early
evening hours. Additional rainfall totals of 0.5 to 0.75" will
be possible for many locations, however given the very dry
antecedent conditions in recent weeks, few if any hydro impacts
are expected. Lastly, isolated embedded storms will be possible,
especially this afternoon as main frontal boundary moves south
of the region. The best chance looks to be for areas south of
I-90 based on later frontal timing, however very limited
instability should keep any thunder potential fairly isolated in
nature. Despite decent shear profiles aloft, limited
instability should keep severe concerns largely in check.
Widespread precip along with ample cloud cover aloft will keep
highs in the middle to upper 60s for most, with a few low 70s
possible in the central Hudson Vly.

Rain gradually comes to an end during the overnight hours
tonight as front clears the area. Lows tonight will range from
the upper 40s in the southern Adirondacks to upper 50s further
south across the mid Hudson Vly.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Mainly dry and warm  conditions expected through the short
term as high pressure takes hold of the area. Latest models do
hint at light rain associated with the outer bands of a
weakening Hurricane Helene lifting north into southern portions
of our fcst area on Saturday and Sunday. Will have to watch
trends as an increase in pops may be necessary both days if
current model trends continue, although much of any
precipitation looks to largely remain south of the Capital
District. Otherwise, expect highs in the low to mid 70s through
the period with lows in the lower to middle 50s, with low 40s
likely across the higher terrain.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Similar to the short term, dry and warm conditions will start
the period as high pressure remains in control and the remnants
of Hurricane Helene spin to our south across the central
Appalachians and southern Mid-Atlantic. Eventually however,
precipitation chances look to increase by late Tuesday and
Wednesday as the next cold front approaches from the west.
Temperatures will start above normal both Monday and Tuesday
with more seasonal values expected by Wednesday thanks to
increased precipitation chances and associated cloud cover.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MVFR/IFR ceilings will continue through the early morning hours
as areas of showers progress to the ENE. Ceilings are expected
to improve to MVFR by mid-morning with TEMPO IFR conditions in
areas of steadier rain. There is a medium chance for ceilings to
improve to VFR after 00Z this evening as showers come to an end.

Winds at the surface are generally expected to be less than 10
knots through the forecast period. Winds around 2000 feet are
still expected to range from 30-40 KT through the early
afternoon hours. However, low level wind shear now looks to be
less than thresholds to include with the latest TAF package.

Outlook...

Thursday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Friday to Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. &&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...32
NEAR TERM...32
SHORT TERM...32
LONG TERM...32
AVIATION...Humphrey