Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY
Issued by NWS Albany, NY
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137 FXUS61 KALY 261018 AFDALY AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 618 AM EDT Thu Sep 26 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Rain showers with a few embedded thunderstorms will continue today as a cold front moves across the region. Drier weather will return the area tomorrow with mostly dry weather then expected through the weekend. Rain chances will once again increase by midweek as the next cold front approaches the area. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... 618 AM Update... Fcst well on track this morning with regional radars showing shwr activity filling in upstream across central NY this hour. This trend will continue with rain expected to overspread much of the area after sunrise. Otherwise, just made a few adjustments to remaining grids based on latest trends. Previous Discussion... Another unsettled period once again expected today as an elongated area of low pressure and associated front continue to impact the region. Early morning radar imagery showing light returns moving through the Capital District, with additional activity noted upstream across western New York. With time this morning, expect additional development as main upper- level wave and sfc frontal boundary begin to approach the area. CAMs to include the 3km NAM and HRRR seem to have good agreement on this scenario, with widespread rains developing towards daybreak. Given slow overall movement of the upper wave, rain will continue though much of the day before gradually beginning to end from north to south during the late afternoon and early evening hours. Additional rainfall totals of 0.5 to 0.75" will be possible for many locations, however given the very dry antecedent conditions in recent weeks, few if any hydro impacts are expected. Lastly, isolated embedded storms will be possible, especially this afternoon as main frontal boundary moves south of the region. The best chance looks to be for areas south of I-90 based on later frontal timing, however very limited instability should keep any thunder potential fairly isolated in nature. Despite decent shear profiles aloft, limited instability should keep severe concerns largely in check. Widespread precip along with ample cloud cover aloft will keep highs in the middle to upper 60s for most, with a few low 70s possible in the central Hudson Vly. Rain gradually comes to an end during the overnight hours tonight as front clears the area. Lows tonight will range from the upper 40s in the southern Adirondacks to upper 50s further south across the mid Hudson Vly. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Mainly dry and warm conditions expected through the short term as high pressure takes hold of the area. Latest models do hint at light rain associated with the outer bands of a weakening Hurricane Helene lifting north into southern portions of our fcst area on Saturday and Sunday. Will have to watch trends as an increase in pops may be necessary both days if current model trends continue, although much of any precipitation looks to largely remain south of the Capital District. Otherwise, expect highs in the low to mid 70s through the period with lows in the lower to middle 50s, with low 40s likely across the higher terrain. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Similar to the short term, dry and warm conditions will start the period as high pressure remains in control and the remnants of Hurricane Helene spin to our south across the central Appalachians and southern Mid-Atlantic. Eventually however, precipitation chances look to increase by late Tuesday and Wednesday as the next cold front approaches from the west. Temperatures will start above normal both Monday and Tuesday with more seasonal values expected by Wednesday thanks to increased precipitation chances and associated cloud cover. && .AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... MVFR/IFR ceilings will continue through the early morning hours as areas of showers progress to the ENE. Ceilings are expected to improve to MVFR by mid-morning with TEMPO IFR conditions in areas of steadier rain. There is a medium chance for ceilings to improve to VFR after 00Z this evening as showers come to an end. Winds at the surface are generally expected to be less than 10 knots through the forecast period. Winds around 2000 feet are still expected to range from 30-40 KT through the early afternoon hours. However, low level wind shear now looks to be less than thresholds to include with the latest TAF package. Outlook... Thursday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Friday to Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...32 NEAR TERM...32 SHORT TERM...32 LONG TERM...32 AVIATION...Humphrey