459
FXUS61 KALY 262015
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
415 PM EDT Thu Sep 26 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Rain showers this afternoon diminish from northwest to southeast
this evening as a cold front moves across the region. Skies
partially clear tonight along and north of I-90 resulting in
some fog, especially in river valleys. Canadian high pressure
builds southward tomorrow into the weekend giving us drier
weather although a few rain showers may sneak back into areas
south I-90 as our front retrogrades northward.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...

Rain showers are diminishing this afternoon as our cold front
slides into the North Country and Tug Hill with its parent
upper level closed low tracking into Quebec. As the strongest
forcing for ascent escapes well to the east of the boundary,
showers are diminishing later this afternoon. With cloudy skies
and low-level moisture remaining in place, it will still be a
dreary end our Thursday with somewhat humid conditions as
temperatures and dew points stay in the low to mid 60s.

This has been beneficial rain with much of the region with NYS
mesonet and MRMS data showing total QPF amounts ranging from
0.30 to 1.50." An additional 0.10 - 0.25" is expected through
Midnight with most showers near and south of I-90. Showers
dwindle this evening and end by around Midnight per latest CAM
guidance. As the cold front shifts south and eastward late this
afternoon through the western/southern Adirondacks into the
Capital District this evening, skies clear in its wake. With
dew points staying elevated and soils moist after a soaking
rainfall, fog will easily develop, especially in river valleys
this evening. Fog may turn dense in spots. While the sfc
boundary tracks through the mid-Hudson Valley by the pre-dawn
hours, the mid-level moisture/thermal gradient stalls over the
mid-Hudson Valley which will keep skies clouds. Clouds should
mitigate fog formation.

Temperatures stay mild tonight where skies are cloudy with
overnight lows in the upper 50s to around 60s. Further north
where skies clear in the southern Adirondacks, Mohawk Valley and
Upper Hudson Valley, overnight lows drop into the upper 40s to
low 50s.

The sfc cold front continues pressing further into Central NJ
during the day Friday but the mid-level boundary hangs around
the mid-Hudson or Lower Hudson Valley. As Canadian high
pressure and subsidence/dry air build in the wake of our
departing closed low, early fog in river valleys will give way
to mainly sunny near and north of I-90. Skies remain partly to
mostly cloudy to the south closer. With a mild air mass still
in place aloft and a light northerly flow reducing the humidity,
temperatures will warm nicely into the low to mid 70s Friday
afternoon giving us a pleasant end to the work week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

Our stalled sfc boundary retreats back northward Friday night
into Saturday as a closed low in the MS/TN Valley absorbs the
remnants of Helene resulting in downstream ridging building in
the mid-Atlantic. There remains uncertainty on just how far
north the boundary advances as our Canadian high slowly lifts
into northern New England; however, we do expect increasing
cloud coverage from south to north during this period. We slowly
expand slight chance POPs into the eastern Catskills, mid-
Hudson Valley and into Berkshire/Litchfield County late Friday
night into Saturday but ensemble guidance suggests incoming
showers will be light and isolated to widely scattered as
moisture and the boundary enters into an area of stronger
confluence established across the Northeast.

Despite increasing clouds on Saturday, temperatures will still
warm into the low to mid 70s as the mild air mass remains in
place aloft. Humidity also gradually increases in response to
the retreating boundary.

We remain mostly cloudy Saturday night but the potential for
showers decreases through the night as our boundary shifts
southward in response to high pressure in the Midwest/Great
Lakes builds into the Northeast. Temperatures remain mild only
dropping into the mid to upper 50s thanks to cloud coverage.

Mostly cloudy skies start the day on Sunday but should give way
to increasing sun in the afternoon from north to south as high
pressure and subsidence from the Great Lakes continues to build
eastward. Temperatures remain rather mild/comfortable with highs
again rising into the low to mid 70s with upper 60s in the hill
towns/higher terrain.

Gradually clearing skies continues into Sunday night with
temperatures cooling in response to the drier air mass filtering
southward. Overnight lows drop into the low to mid 50s with the
hill towns and higher terrain in the upper 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

Pleasant day to start the work week as high pressure builds at
the sfc and upper level ridging amplifies over the Northeast.
We should enjoy mostly sunny skies with temperatures warming
into the low to mid 70s. High pressure slides to the east
Monday night into Tuesday becoming anchored over northern New
England. This will keep an onshore flow in place and
temperatures should cool in response to the incoming marine air
mass. Tuesday highs only in the mid to upper 60s with around 70
in the valley.

Our next cold front arrives during the middle of the week which
will result in our next chance for rain. Still uncertainty on
the exact timing and moisture content but had enough confidence
to increases POPs to chance Tuesday through Wednesday night.

Canadian high pressure builds in its wake for the end of the
week leading to another period of dry and seasonable weather.
High temperatures in the mid to upper 60s with overnight lows
cooling into the upper 40s to low 50s.


&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Through 18z Friday...Widespread IFR/MVFR conditions with reductions
to both vsby/cigs in place with occasional rain through much of the
afternoon, as a cold front slowly sags southward across the area.
Gradual improvement to MVFR is expected late afternoon to early
evening, although there could still be some brief IFR cigs at times
mainly at KPOU/KPSF.

In wake of the cold front passage, low/mid level clouds should
gradually scour out from around KALB north to KGFL. Thicker clouds
at MVFR/VFR levels anticipated to linger at KPSF and especially
KPOU. Where breaks in the clouds occur, fog development is likely
with the best chances for IFR conditions at KGFL. Will mention MVFR
vsby for now at KALB/KPSF, although there is the potential for IFR
should more persistent breaks in the clouds develop especially at
KPSF. VFR conditions will return after 12z-13z Friday.

Winds will be variable less than 10 kt through the rest of the day,
becoming near calm tonight. Winds will then become northerly around
3-5 kt on Friday.

Outlook...

Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. Patchy FG.
Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Speciale
NEAR TERM...Speciale
SHORT TERM...Speciale
LONG TERM...Speciale
AVIATION...JPV