Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI
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511 FXUS63 KAPX 221053 AFDAPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 653 AM EDT Sun Sep 22 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Showers and some storms return today and tonight, with locally heavy rain in nw lower MI - Cooler wx this upcoming work week && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 342 AM EDT Sun Sep 22 2024 Pattern/synopsis: Cold front slowly moving across western upper MI and central WI. Convection is occurring ahead of the front, mostly from ne WI and points s and w. The front crosses northern MI this afternoon and early evening. Forecast: Marine fog/stratus continues to cover parts of ne lower and eastern upper MI, especially near Lk Huron. That seems likely to last until this afternoon, when winds veer nw to n behind the cold front. Mid-high clouds cover much of northern lower MI (excepting the ne lower MI coast), not so much eastern upper MI yet. As we move thru the morning, the boundary is progged to sharpen, and precip should gradually shift behind the front. That will slow eventual precip onset, though some (mostly light) showers will occur in nw lower and eastern upper MI. A band of more substantial precip, supported by lifting moist and somewhat unstable air, across the frontal boundary. Lapse rates are not especially steep, and MuCape values are only around 200-300j/kg. That will support thunder, but severe is not expected. But a narrow axis of PWAT values exceeding 1.5" will contribute to healthy rainfall rates at times. Have QPF today of 0.50-1.00" across a good portion of nw lower MI. This won`t result in hydro problems. Precip continues eastward tonight, and by dawn only ne lower MI has a chance of lingering showers. Northerly breezes kick in behind the front late today and tonight, and much cooler temps press in (aided by rain-cooled temps). QPF looks to be lower tonight, as high as 0.50" near Saginaw Bay. Max temps today range from mid-60s eastern upper MI, to near 80f near Saginaw Bay. Lows tonight in the 40s to near 50f. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Issued at 342 AM EDT Sun Sep 22 2024 Pattern Synopsis and Forecast: Current midlevel flow over the Great Lakes region continues active weather at times as upstream troughing over Northern Minnesota returns showers and storms to the CWA. Northern branch flow currently over Canada will push southward, resulting in a cooler air mass to settle into the region this week. Aformentioned troughing currently overhead will be centered over Southern Hudson Bay at the start of the long term. A secondary weak trough riding along southern branch flow will moves through the Midwest this Tuesday, continuing chances for an additional round of showers as it passes the CWA. Conditions then turn drier for the second half of the work week as upstream riding support surface high pressure this Wednesday through the remainder of the long term. Primary Forecast Concerns/Key Messages: Showers linger this Monday and Tuesday. Cooler air settles into Northern Michigan this week: No impactful weather is expected through the entirety of the forecast period. Only active weather will be from a few scattered showers this Tuesday as aformentioned southern branch embedded troughing moves across the CWA. Ensembles depict little if any measurable precipitation am most forcing will be along the Ohio Valley. Most focus for the long term period is a cool Canadian air mass returning climatologically average temperatures this week. Highs will remain in the upper 60s to low 70s starting this Monday through the entire work week while overnight lows will remain around 50 degrees. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/... Issued at 653 AM EDT Sun Sep 22 2024 Fog/stratus expected to persist this morning near Lk Huron, bringing LIFR conditions to APN and perhaps at times CIU. Otherwise, mid/high clouds will thicken and lower, and chances for rain will increase today. A band of showers with a few embedded TSRA is expected to slowly cross the area from west to east beginning at midday. All TAF sites will have a mention of TSRA for a few hours. At about that time, conditions also expected to lower to IFR at all sites for at least a few hours. Improvement occurs tonight. Lightish southerly winds this morning, will become northerly and somewhat breezy by late today into tonight. && .APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 2 AM EDT Monday for LHZ346>348. Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 11 AM EDT Monday for LMZ344>346. Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 7 AM EDT Monday for LSZ321-322. && $$ SHORT TERM...JZ LONG TERM...SJC AVIATION...JZ