315
FXUS63 KAPX 252328
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
728 PM EDT Wed Sep 25 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Above normal temperatures continue through the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 221 PM EDT Wed Sep 25 2024

High pressure continues to slide into the region tonight and
holds across the region through Thursday (and likely well
beyond). Associated drier air continues to advect in from our
west through the period. Instability driven cu evident on
satellite imagery across inland northern lower is expected to
quickly dissipate later this evening leaving mostly clear skies
tonight. Perhaps a few cu are able to develop Thursday, but
mostly sunny skies should still dominate overall. Slightly gusty
west northwest winds out there now (10 to 15 mph) will diminish
toward sunset, become nearly calm overnight then be light and
variable on Thursday. Seasonably cool tonight with lows mainly
in the 40s. Unseasonably warm again Thursday with highs in the
mid and upper 70s for the most part.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 221 PM EDT Wed Sep 25 2024

Pattern Forecast: At the start of the period Thursday night, upper-
level ridging is expected to be parked across the north-central tier
of the CONUS atop upper-level closed low pressure over the lower MS
Valley. Meanwhile, Hurricane Helene is expected to be making inland
progress across Florida`s panhandle. Tropical remnants eventually
get absorbed into that larger scale upper wave by later Friday, but
struggles with much in the way of northward progress as ridging
overhead locally keeps much of that energy and associated moisture
suppressed to the south across the OH/TN Valleys through the
weekend. Late in the forecast period (Monday night/Tuesday), latest
trends support a northern stream shortwave diving out of Canada into
the northern Lakes. Associated low pressure well to the north may
drag a cold front across northern Michigan and provide the highest
chances for showers through the forecast period.

Forecast Details: Little in the way of sensible weather is
anticipated through at least the first half of the long term
forecast period as tropical moisture struggles to make it much
farther north than the Ohio Valley and far southern MI. Will be
watching trends over the next several days on this, but current
confidence is in a precipitation-free weekend locally with above
normal temperatures as highs top out in the 70s area-wide.

By late Monday night into Tuesday, focus transitions to an upstream
cold front that`s expected to renew precipitation chances and usher
in cooler, fall-like temperatures for at least a few days.
Temperatures by next Tuesday favored closer to normal and even a few
degrees below normal by Wednesday with afternoon highs ranging from
the mid-50s to low 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 723 PM EDT Wed Sep 25 2024

Skies continue to clear this evening, with mainly SKC tonight
through Thursday. Dry conditions persist, with light winds
through the period. There could be very isolated pockets of fog
later tonight, but terminals should largely remain VFR. Winds
decrease tonight becoming light and variable at times, then
becoming westerly on Thursday.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AJS
LONG TERM...MJG
AVIATION...JLD