Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI
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818 FXUS63 KAPX 271057 AFDAPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 657 AM EDT Fri Sep 27 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Warm through Monday - Brief rain chances early next week, with cooler air after && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 330 AM EDT Fri Sep 27 2024 Pattern/synopsis: 1017mb high pressure is over Georgian Bay and adjoining parts of Ontario. Skies are mostly clear here, outside of some patchy stratus, mostly in eastern upper MI. The outermost cirrus associated with TC Helene has reached the Thumb and Tri-Cities areas. Forecast: Surface ridge gets squeezed a bit northward today and this evening, as Helene races northward (before slowing late today/tonight). The pressure gradient tightens significantly late today in southern sections...though not as much as downstate. This will result in somewhat breezy e to ne winds late today into tonight, in more exposed locales south of M-32 (especially near Lk Huron). Most substantial fog to this point is along and south of the M-55 tier of counties, along with western Chip/Mack Cos in the eastern UP. Will be keeping an eye on early-morning fog trends of course, but not much of the fog is dense to this point. Conditions will quickly improve after sunrise. Cirrus will only make uneven inroads into se sections thru the evening, with a better push of mid-high clouds into that area late tonight. Limited cloud cover otherwise. No risk of precip this far north. Max temps mid 70s to near 80f. Lows tonight near 50f thru the 50s. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 330 AM EDT Fri Sep 27 2024 By Saturday, what is left of Helene will have merged with an upper low creating a deeper low with tropical moisture centered over western KY/TN. This will lead to very efficient rainfall over the states to our south (IN/OH/IL) this weekend. Up here, high clouds will likely move in from the south Saturday as east to northeast winds are breezy. Low end chances for light rain near Saginaw Bay Sunday, however CAMs and most guidance now keep higher heights aloft over northern MI and blocks any attempt of this upper low from reaching farther north. During this time, temperatures will be warm (mid 70s in the afternoon for most locations) with breezy winds. Early next week, an upper wave moves across southern Canada and deepens across the northern Midwest as a surface cyclone takes shape. The surface low will be in Canada to our north as the upper trough moves overhead, however the cold front will extend down into the central plains. Rain chances will be seen along the frontal boundary, but the ~1020mb sfc high will move in cooler and drier air for mid week next week. Higher confidence is seen with this solution, as run to run deterministic solutions are starting to align as well as ensembles members. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 657 AM EDT Fri Sep 27 2024 Might still be a shot at a touch of fog over the next hour or so. But otherwise comfortably VFR today and this evening, with higher pressure overhead. A bit of an easterly breeze will pick up late today at MBL/TVC/APN, and will be maintained tonight. That will limit fog potential at those sites. PLN/CIU will have a better chance for fog overnight tonight, but for now will not include. && .APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...JZ LONG TERM...ELD AVIATION...JZ