546
FXUS63 KAPX 260945
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
545 AM EDT Thu Sep 26 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Seasonally warm through most of the weekend

- Rain chances Sunday through mid week

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 251 AM EDT Thu Sep 26 2024

     Clear and quiet thru tonight with above normal high temps today...

High Impact Weather Potential...None.
Large area of high pressure remains sprawled across the Central US
early this morning...including the Western Great Lakes region.
Strong subsidence combined with dry air thru the column is resulting
in clear skies across all of Northern Michigan. Some patchy fog/low
stratus has developed as a result of the clear skies and calm winds
early this morning...as temps cool thru the 50s and into the 40s.

Broad high pressure will remain centered over Wisconsin and Michigan
for the next 24 hours (at least). Aside from some patchy fog/low
stratus early this morning and again late tonight...clear skies and
quiet conditions will remain the rule thanks to strong subsidence
and dry air remaining overhead. High temps this afternoon will
around 10 degrees above normal...topping out in the mid to upper
70s. Low temps tonight will cool back into the mid 40s to around 50
degrees.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 251 AM EDT Thu Sep 26 2024

An strong and large upper level ridge continues to dominate the
western U.S. Friday and into the weekend. Higher upper level heights
bleed into northern MI, leading to warmer temperatures. This will
allow afternoon high temperatures to reach into the 70s through
Monday with overnight seasonally mild overnight low temperatures
(high 40s to low 50s). Starting Saturday, Helene will have
transitioned into an upper level closed low over KY/TN, and could
aid in some moisture to seep in from the southeast. Low chances
for rain, with clouds likely near Saginaw Bay Saturday.

Higher heights will continue to move overhead Sunday as an upper low
starts to put pressure on it from the west (over Canada), according
to the global deterministic GFS. The deterministic ECMWF shows the
closed low with tropical moisture lingering a little longer over
OH/IN, which leads to clouds and intermittent light rain over
northern MI starting Sunday. Taking a look at ensembles, 37% of the
main global members show the closed low lingering over OH/IN Sunday
and even creeping into southern MI by Monday. This scenario leads to
intermittent rain and clouds Sunday through mid week next week. 25%
of members build in the higher heights, which leads to sunny and
warm. The forecast leans towards the higher probability, especially
since the upper ridge axis (over northern MI) will be displaced from
the center (still over the southwest U.S.) Sunday. Nonetheless, any
rain that does fall should not accumulate to much as northern MI
remains too far north from the forcing mechanisms and deeper
moisture at this time.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 545 AM EDT Thu Sep 26 2024

Aside from some early morning patchy fog/low stratus...prevailing
conditions will remain VFR today and tonight as strong high
pressure remains firmly in control of the wx across Northern
Michigan. Surface winds will remain westerly under 10 kts.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MLR
LONG TERM...ELD
AVIATION...MLR