Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
983 FXUS63 KAPX 221746 AFDAPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 146 PM EDT Sun Sep 22 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Showers and some storms return today and tonight, with locally heavy rain in nw lower MI - Cooler wx this upcoming work week && .UPDATE... Issued at 955 AM EDT Sun Sep 22 2024 SW 120+kt upper level jet just to our west/northwest...between approaching trough axis stretching from Manitoba down into the central Plains...and ridge axis still trying to hang on over the Great Lakes. Greatest PVA focused to our north with a weak boundary and some attendant scattered showers/storms this morning over the central UP just behind the surface front, actually. Better jet-level forcing, deep moisture (pwats approaching 2in), and fgen noted over SW WI into central Lake MI where a plume of better rainfall has been slowly moving northeastward over the last several hours, after some intriguing backbuilding over southern WI per IR/WV imagery. Relatively stagnant to mildly east-ish/variable winds over Northern Michigan this morning with this low level moisture, combined with weak synoptic subsidence over the EUP has led to annoying fog persisting from parts of the Lake Huron coastline of NE Lower...up into the EUP...but will expect some improvement in visibilities/ceilings as the front moves in to start generating showers/storms over the next few hours. Do expect the blob of better rainfall to our southwest to continue to creep northeastward through the remainder of the morning into this afternoon...as additional rain showers continue to develop over northeast Lower. Suspect best potential for heavier rains will hang on over northern Lower compared to the EUP...though not impossible some better rainfall rates could be found under any convective activity that tries to slide through up there. Will watch for embedded thunder across northern Lower as well. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 342 AM EDT Sun Sep 22 2024 Pattern/synopsis: Cold front slowly moving across western upper MI and central WI. Convection is occurring ahead of the front, mostly from ne WI and points s and w. The front crosses northern MI this afternoon and early evening. Forecast: Marine fog/stratus continues to cover parts of ne lower and eastern upper MI, especially near Lk Huron. That seems likely to last until this afternoon, when winds veer nw to n behind the cold front. Mid-high clouds cover much of northern lower MI (excepting the ne lower MI coast), not so much eastern upper MI yet. As we move thru the morning, the boundary is progged to sharpen, and precip should gradually shift behind the front. That will slow eventual precip onset, though some (mostly light) showers will occur in nw lower and eastern upper MI. A band of more substantial precip, supported by lifting moist and somewhat unstable air, across the frontal boundary. Lapse rates are not especially steep, and MuCape values are only around 200-300j/kg. That will support thunder, but severe is not expected. But a narrow axis of PWAT values exceeding 1.5" will contribute to healthy rainfall rates at times. Have QPF today of 0.50-1.00" across a good portion of nw lower MI. This won`t result in hydro problems. Precip continues eastward tonight, and by dawn only ne lower MI has a chance of lingering showers. Northerly breezes kick in behind the front late today and tonight, and much cooler temps press in (aided by rain-cooled temps). QPF looks to be lower tonight, as high as 0.50" near Saginaw Bay. Max temps today range from mid-60s eastern upper MI, to near 80f near Saginaw Bay. Lows tonight in the 40s to near 50f. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Issued at 342 AM EDT Sun Sep 22 2024 Pattern Synopsis and Forecast: Current midlevel flow over the Great Lakes region continues active weather at times as upstream troughing over Northern Minnesota returns showers and storms to the CWA. Northern branch flow currently over Canada will push southward, resulting in a cooler air mass to settle into the region this week. Aformentioned troughing currently overhead will be centered over Southern Hudson Bay at the start of the long term. A secondary weak trough riding along southern branch flow will moves through the Midwest this Tuesday, continuing chances for an additional round of showers as it passes the CWA. Conditions then turn drier for the second half of the work week as upstream riding support surface high pressure this Wednesday through the remainder of the long term. Primary Forecast Concerns/Key Messages: Showers linger this Monday and Tuesday. Cooler air settles into Northern Michigan this week: No impactful weather is expected through the entirety of the forecast period. Only active weather will be from a few scattered showers this Tuesday as aformentioned southern branch embedded troughing moves across the CWA. Ensembles depict little if any measurable precipitation am most forcing will be along the Ohio Valley. Most focus for the long term period is a cool Canadian air mass returning climatologically average temperatures this week. Highs will remain in the upper 60s to low 70s starting this Monday through the entire work week while overnight lows will remain around 50 degrees. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/... Issued at 146 PM EDT Sun Sep 22 2024 Front dragging through the region today; expecting southern end of this to slow up near MBL this afternoon with winds holding easterly for a bit longer there. Ultimately expecting all sites to transition to NW and N winds this afternoon behind the front, though could become light and variable at times esp overnight. Some LLWS around 2kft esp near CIU (explicitly mentioned in TAFs); wind shift aloft from SW to NNW will lag behind surface wind shift by a few hours...and expecting decoupling overnight to allow for lighter surface winds. SHRA/RA expected at all sites through evening; greater potential for TS for CIU/PLN though not impossible elsewhere. Rain exits overnight, with potential for low stratus and/or fog to develop...though a bit less confidence in fog development if we stay mixed up into just a low stratus deck overnight. Improvements expected for Monday morning. && .APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 2 AM EDT Monday for LHZ346>348. Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT Monday for LMZ344>346. Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EDT Monday for LSZ321-322. && $$ UPDATE...FEF SHORT TERM...JZ LONG TERM...SJC AVIATION...FEF