Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS La Crosse, WI
Issued by NWS La Crosse, WI
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444 FXUS63 KARX 221925 AFDARX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service La Crosse WI 225 PM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Chilly start to the week, but trending warmer for the latter half of the work week. - Low rain chances (10-20%) for far southwest WI Monday night/Tue. Otherwise, a drier forecast for much of the week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 225 PM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024 Overview: Early afternoon water vapor satellite imagery, heights, and lightning showed a trough over Quebec with an open wave of 500mb low pressure from Nebraska into Colorado with a ridge over the Gulf States. The surface front had pushed through the local area but was near Rockford IL (70T/70Td). North of this area, winds were from the northwest at 10 to 20 mph with temperatures in the 60s and dewpoints in the 40s and 50s. Visible satellite imagery show some high clouds continuing to affect parts of the area with the open wave lifting northeast. Some patchy cumulus were developing over parts of MN/northern WI. Tonight through Monday: Through Monday, the 500mb open wave will track toward the Mid- Mississippi River Valley as another mid-tropospheric trough will drop southward from Canada into the Northern Plains. Forecast concerns center on how chilly temperatures will be tonight, if there will be fog, and how far north precipitation will make it. Have some scattered to broken high clouds affecting the area through Monday. Farther north with the clearing skies and diminishing winds, temperature should drop into the upper 30s to lower 40s. With the clouds toward DBQ, temperatures may be held up in the mid 40s. The HREF probabilities for temperatures 36 or colder are 0-10% for typically cold areas, thus in those local spots, cannot rule out mid 30s. The record low Monday morning is 32 (1974) at La Crosse and 24 (1974) at Rochester, so it definitely can get cold this time of year! The low level flow becomes more easterly and light at the surface. Some hints at fog due to the low dewpoint depressions. 925mb winds remain elevated, so this should hinder fog development, but could see some in the valleys HREF probabilities for light precipitation increase toward DBQ Monday, but we still have a dry forecast. For now have PoPs at 10% or less toward DBQ. Monday night through the week: As we move into Monday night/Tuesday, model guidance continues to show the aforementioned wave lifting towards the area while another shortwave trough is forecast to drop down through the Northern Plains. There remains some variability between model solutions on how far northward rain may reach, but probs from GEFS/ECMWF suggest some low end chances cannot be completely ruled out for far parts of southwest WI. However, the ECMWF ens do still seem to be the more excited of the two. Although it is still a bit out for the hi-res guidance, have noted some models developing light echoes across the Dakotas and bringing them down through MN. There is lower confidence in how much further echoes may progress towards the area, and with it being towards the end of the hi-res guidance, have not made any significant adjustments to the forecast. As more guidance comes in, this may be something to evaluate further. Otherwise, the cooler air remains through the start of the work week, with highs forecast in the upper 60s to lower 70s and lows in the 40s to around 50. The overall upper level pattern for mid to late week continues to be a challenge. Latest GEFS and ECMWF ens solutions have been suggesting the potential for the aforementioned system to develop into a closed low over the south. However, there remains lower confidence in finer details surrounding this overall flow pattern as solutions vary in how this system further evolves, especially with the potential interaction of a tropical system. With all this said, there is not much signal for precipitation among GEFS/ECMWF ens solutions until the end of the week into the weekend. With the aforementioned uncertainties and variability in guidance, details will need to be refined over the coming days. For now will keep with the resulting low chances (~20-30%) from the blended model guidance. A gradual warming trend is forecast for the later half of the work week, with highs into the mid to upper 70s. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/... Issued at 1241 PM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024 VFR conditions with variable high cloudiness. A storm system is bringing in high cloudiness aloft, but surface high pressure and north winds are ushering in much drier air. Dewpoint spreads remain large for Monday morning despite surface winds decoupling, thus fog is not expected outside of valley areas in southwest Wisconsin. Brisk north winds become light and variable overnight. Easterly 900mb winds remain somewhat elevated 10 to 20kts through 12Z Monday; limiting fog potential. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. MN...None. IA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...EMS/Zapotocny AVIATION...Zapotocny