188
AXNT20 KNHC 310612
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Fri May 31 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0500 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 22W from 12N
southward, and moving westward around 15 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is seen from 04N to 08N between 22W and 26W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is near 43W from 11N southward,
and moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. Widely scattered moderate
convection is noted from 05N to 10N between 42W and 46W.

A Caribbean tropical wave is near 68W from near the Mona Passage
southward into northwestern Venezuela, and moving westward at 15
kt. Widely scattered moderate convection is present from 14N to
16N between 66W and 69W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the coastal border of
Guinea and Sierra Leone, then runs southwestward to 07N18W. An
ITCZ continues westward from 07N18W through 05N30W to 07N41W.
Scattered moderate convection is found south of the trough and
near the ITCZ from 03N to 07N between 10W and 22W. Widely
scattered moderate convection exist near the ITCZ from 04N to 07N
between 26W and 34W.

The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough is triggering
scattered heavy showers and isolated thunderstorms at the waters
adjacent to northwestern Colombia.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A dissipating stationary front is seen over the Florida Big Bend
area. A modest surface ridge extends southwestward from the
Florida Panhandle to near Veracruz, Mexico. Moderate to fresh
with locally strong E to SE winds and seas at 4 to 6 ft are
present across the western Gulf, including the Bay of Campeche.
Gentle to moderate ESE to SE winds and 2 to 4 ft seas prevail for
the rest of the Gulf.

For the forecast, the stationary front will dissipate by Fri.
Meanwhile, the modest surface ridging across the Gulf will
continue into early next week. As a result, winds will pulse
between moderate and fresh in the western Gulf during the
evenings through the weekend, and also in the eastern Gulf Fri
night through Sat. Fresh to strong NE to E winds will pulse near
the northern and western portions of the Yucatan peninsula during
the late afternoon and nighttime hours through Sun. Haze west of
90W due to agricultural fires over Central America and Mexico will
continue for at least the next couple of days reducing visibility
at times.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Aided by divergent winds aloft, convergent trade winds are
producing scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms offshore
from northern Nicaragua, between Jamaica and western Cuba, and
near Haiti. Refer to the Tropical Wave section for additional
convection. Moderate to fresh easterly winds and seas at 6 to 8
ft are found at the south-central and southeastern basin,
including waters near the ABC Islands. Gentle to moderate with
locally fresh E winds and 4 to 6 ft seas dominate the rest of the
Caribbean Sea.

Fresh to locally strong trade winds across the south-central
Caribbean. Moderate to fresh trade winds are elsewhere across the
basin, except for light to gentle winds over the northwestern and
north- central sections. Seas are 5 to 7 ft across the south-
central and SW parts of the basin, 3 to 5 ft S of 18N, and 1 to 3
ft N of 18N, including the Windward Passage.

For the forecast, a moderate pressure gradient between high
pressure north of the area and low pressure near Colombia will
maintain fresh to locally strong trade winds over the south-
central Caribbean and the Gulf of Honduras through Fri. The
pressure gradient will increase Sat behind a tropical wave that is
currently exiting the Caribbean. This will lead to fresh to
strong trade winds across the central basin Sat through early Mon,
along with seas to around 8 ft. Winds will slightly diminish by
early next week. Smoke from agricultural fires over Central
America is causing reduced visibilities over portions of the Gulf
of Honduras.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front curves southwestward from the northeastern Atlantic
to 30N27W, then continues westward as a stationary front to
28N50W. Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted up
to 80 nm along either side of this boundary. A surface trough runs
southwestward from 30N52W to 21N59W. Widely scattered moderate
convection is seen 25N o 27N between 52W and 55W. Convergent
southerly winds are generating similar convection from 27N to 29N
between 64W and 73W. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ and Tropical
Waves sections for additional convection in the Atlantic Ocean.

Gentle to moderate NE to SE winds and seas of 3 to 6 ft are
evident north of 20N between 25W and the Georgia/Florida coast.
Near the Canary and Cabo Verde Islands, moderate to locally fresh
N to NNE winds and 5 to 7 ft seas exist north of 15N between the
Africa coast and 25W. For the tropical Atlantic from 08N to 20N
between 25W and the Georgia/Florida coast, gentle to moderate ENE
to ESE winds and 6 to 7 ft seas are seen. Gentle with locally
moderate monsoonal winds and 3 to 5 ft seas exist elsewhere in the
Atlantic Basin.

For the forecast, relatively weak surface ridging over the region
is allowing for moderate or lighter winds to exist over the
forecast waters. A cold front moving across the waters from 31N78W
to 29N81W will press eastward, stretching from Bermuda to the
central Bahamas by Fri evening, then from 29N55W to the SE Bahamas
by Sun with the tail-end of the boundary stalling. High pressure
building in behind the front will tighten the pressure gradient
across the region, bringing moderate to fresh winds and across
waters north of 20N, along with building seas. Conditions will
slightly improve by early next week north of 27N..

$$

Chan