Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY
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912 FXUS61 KBGM 231957 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 357 PM EDT Mon Sep 23 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Isolated to scattered showers move through the region this afternoon lingering into the overnight period. Relatively active pattern supports shower chances through Thursday. Pattern changes in time for the weekend with high pressure settling back in with drier conditions. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... 330 PM Update... A slow moving upper level short wave continues to pass over the region this afternoon with scattered showers moving across CNY and NEPA. Once this final batch of showers exits eastwards, light and spotty showers will linger through the evening and possibly into the overnight period. Temperatures today are seasonably cool with highs ranging in the upper 50s to low 60s this afternoon. Blended in the NBM 10th percentile to bring down forecasted temperatures as current observations struggle to reach 60 degrees. Weak upper level ridging briefly builds back into the region on Tuesday, with a brief break in precipitation expected before the next system arrives. As the ridge slides eastwards our region gets placed in a southerly flow pattern. This will advect more moisture into our region kicking off more showers especially late Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday night. Although a chance of showers will still possible before this time frame. Otherwise temperatures will be relatively comfortable Tuesday afternoon with highs ranging in the mid to upper 60s. Overnight lows will fall into the 50s across the region. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... A warm frontal boundary will slowly move through the region Wednesday and Thursday with enough lift and moisture to produce some scattered showers. QPF once again looks on the lighter side with the highest amounts of a half inch or less. Currently, this system looks to move fast enough to prevent deeper tropical moisture from advecting in. A few ensemble outliers do show deeper moisture with heavier and more widespread rain that extends through Friday. The general consensus though is for scattered light showers to end by Thursday night. Highs look to be in the 60`s and 70`s with lows in the 50`s. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Two low pressure systems look to do an unusual Fujiwara effect across the south later this week into early next week. However, high pressure looks to build across our region throughout most of this time keeping chances for showers to our south. Fairly seasonable with 40`s and 50`s for lows with highs getting into the 70`s for many locations each day. && .AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Isolated to scattered rain showers continue to move through the region this afternoon and evening. As a result MVFR to Fuel Alt restrictions have expanded over most terminals with possible IFR ceilings at ELM/BGM. RME/SYR will alternate between VFR and MVFR ceilings for most of the period. Model guidance hints at fog formation tonight at ELM/BGM, but confidence is low at this time, therefore a tempo group was used. Some isolated showers may linger overnight along with Fuel Alt restrictions at most sites and IFR restrictions at ELM. Pessimistic ceilings will persist at most terminals through the end of the period with exceptions at RME/SYR. .Outlook... Monday Night Through Tuesday...Restrictions possible with showers. Wednesday through Thursday...Generally, unsettled with VFR ceilings and occasional flight restrictions possible in passing showers. Friday and Saturday... VFR conditions are possible. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ES NEAR TERM...ES SHORT TERM...MWG LONG TERM...MWG AVIATION...ES