603
FXUS61 KBGM 270601
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
201 AM EDT Fri Sep 27 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Any isolated shower or pockets of drizzle from the Poconos to
Catskills will be diminishing overnight. High pressure will
bring dry conditions on Friday before a chance of showers
returns to the Twin Tiers southward Friday night. Mainly dry
weather is expected this weekend, although a few showers cannot
be ruled out.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
930 PM Update...

Light showers continue to linger over the twin tier region as
the front continues to slowly push south. Made minor tweaks to
pops to keep showers around for the next few hours. Otherwise
blended in current observations to temperatures and dew points,
no other changes needed.

630 PM Update...

Expanded pops to include light showers and sprinkles moving
through the Susquehanna Region using radar imagery. Otherwise
made the usual adjustments to temperatures and dew points using
current observations. Previous forecast remains on track at
this time.

350 PM Update...

A slow moving cold front continues to move through the area with
a few light showers. Coverage of showers remains relatively
isolated, so PoPs were reduced for the remainder of this
afternoon.

There will continue to be isolated showers this evening, mainly
across the Poconos-Catskills as the frontal boundary remains
nearly stationary, but otherwise the majority of the area will
remain dry. Lingering low level moisture combined with the
post-frontal airmass will result in patchy fog tonight,
especially where any rain fell today. Lows are expected to be in
the lower 50s to lower 60s, with some mid 40s across northern
Oneida County.

High pressure will be largely in control of our weather on
Friday, although some moisture surging northward may bring a few
isolated showers across Northeast PA late in the day. Otherwise,
skies will be partly sunny to mostly cloudy with highs in the
lower to mid 70s.

The northeastern edge of an upper low across the Mississippi
River Valley will bring an increasing chance for some light
showers Friday night from south to north. Otherwise, mostly
cloudy skies are expected with lows in the mid 50s to lower 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
255 PM Update

Helene will be absorbed by an upper low over the Mid Mississippi
River Valley. This system will slowly drift eastward toward the
Mid Atlantic Coast through the period. Although the bulk of the
moisture associated with this upper low will remain well south
of our region, there is a chance for some light rain showers
across NE PA and perhaps pushing as far north as the NY
Southern Tier. A remnant band of mid level (700mb) moisture
remains in place over the region through the day on Saturday.
There will not be much lift, or moisture above the 700mb
level...therefore the bulk of the area can just expect mostly
cloudy skies with a few sprinkles.

Our area will remain on the northern fringe of the slow moving
upper level low through Sunday. This will keep skies mostly
cloudy with a chance for showers from the Twin Tiers southward
into NE PA. Our area will remain split between high pressure
over southern New England and the Ohio Valley low pressure
system for Sunday night. This setup looks to keep the majority
of the forecast area dry, under mostly cloudy skies.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
3 PM Update

High pressure will be over the region on Monday with a dry start
to the work week. Due to the complexity of the pattern next
week, there remains a lot of uncertainty in the forecast for
this period. There is significant timing issues with arrival of
next upper trough digging in from Canada. Some guidance shows
this feature pushing into the region Monday night into Tuesday,
while other models hold it off until Wednesday. Stayed with NBM
solution for now, which due to the uncertainty in timing spreads
PoP out with chances for rain Monday into Thursday. However, it
will be more likely that this upper trough and associated
surface cold front will push through the region within a 24 hour
period and it is unlikely there will be rain showers in the
region through the entire forecast period. The forecast will be
more honed in during the coming days as models start to come
into better agreement.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Varying conditions are in place early this morning as a weak
cold front departs the area and high pressure builds in along
with drier air. Lower ceilings are still possible for AVP the
next several hours with the front nearby. Farther north areas of
low clouds and fog will be possible despite a mid and high
cloud deck being present due to the increase in moisture from
Thursday`s rain and light winds. RME has fallen to below airport
mins where skies are clearest, and it is expected to remain
there through the early morning. Confidence is not as high at
the remaining CNY terminals on how low visibilities and
ceilings will drop, especially at ELM, ITH and BGM. While it`s
unusual for fog at SYR, visibilities have been gradually
dropping there and guidance continues to support this trend, so
kept it in the forecast.

VFR conditions are expected to return at all terminals between
12-14Z as high pressure promotes dry conditions. Clouds and
moisture will increase from the south tonight and that can lead
to some restrictions later in the TAF, especially for AVP and
ELM.

.Outlook...

Friday night...Mainly VFR north; some restrictions possible
south as clouds increase with shower chances, especially for
AVP.

Saturday through Monday...Mainly VFR, but occasional rain
showers may bring brief restrictions, mainly at KAVP.

Tuesday...Scattered rain showers may bring occasional
restrictions.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BJG/DK
NEAR TERM...BJG/ES
SHORT TERM...MPK/MJM
LONG TERM...MPK/MJM
AVIATION...DK