763
FXUS61 KBGM 191658
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
1258 PM EDT Sun May 19 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Increasing sunshine is expected this afternoon and evening with
temperatures rising into the 70s. Tomorrow is looking even
warmer, with dry and mostly sunny weather expected. Very warm
temperatures are expected Tuesday into Wednesday with a chance
for thunderstorms late Wednesday into Thursday as a cold front
approaches the region.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

1250 PM Update...

Increased cloud cover over the next few hours, as the dry air is
taking longer to mix in than expected. Can`t rule out an
isolated rain shower over the southern Catskills and/or Poconos
later this afternoon as well. Otherwise, the current forecast
remains on track and temperatures will still reach into the 70s
areawide later this afternoon. A few locations such as Syracuse
and Elmira are likely to reach the lower 80s.

930 AM Update...

Stubborn morning clouds will linger a few more hours, but then
we are still expecting plenty of sunshine this afternoon as
drier air mixes into the region. Overall, no significant changes
to the forecast at this time.

630 AM update...
Decided to lower cloud cover this afternoon more as water vapor
imagery has very dry air moving overhead and with day time
mixing there is a greater likelihood that models are overdoing
boundary layer moisture. Temperatures were kept as is for now
but if the clouds end up scattering out by mid morning then
highs this afternoon will push a few degrees warmer.

245 AM Update:

This near term forecast is the first in a while where I have
not had to add any chances of precipitation to anywhere in the
forecast area. Upper level ridging has build in with water vapor
imagery showing dry air advecting in aloft. With day time
heating today, some of that dry air will mix down to the
surface. Cloud cover this afternoon was lowered from what model
guidance has as self destructive sunshine is less likely as
deeper mixing will just mix in more dry air rather than lead to
more cloud development. Some of the models like the NAM want to
put in surface CAPE and a few isolated thunderstorms this
afternoon but looking at forecast soundings, it looks like the
model is keeping the boundary layer a bit too moist. Still with
dew points in the mid to upper 50s and temperatures in the mid
to upper 70s, some of the higher terrain like the Catskills
could assist in sparking off a shower or two this afternoon but
confidence was too low to add showers to the forecast.

Tonight, high pressure remains in place and with radiational
cooling once again and it being post greenup, patchy valley fog
will likely develop again in the river valleys.

Monday is looking even warmer as 500 mb heights continue to
rise towards 580 dm. With ridging in place, a stout subsidence
inversion around 700 mb will likely keep the region capped
despite some surface based CAPE able to develop with the heat
and humidity. Once again there is a small chance that terrain
will help a couple showers or thunderstorms break through the
cap but odds are low. High pressure and clear skies continue
into Monday night.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A large ridge of high pressure still looks to be over the region
Tuesday. A weak disturbance ahead of the front is coming into better
focus, passing through central New York on Tuesday. However,
moisture and lift are both limited so if any shower or thunderstorm
it would be brief and isolated. The NBM has caught up to what what
the modeled boundary layer temperatures would yield so confidence is
increasing that highs will get well up into the 80`s. Continued warm
air advection should keep temperatures in the 60`s for lows Tuesday
night.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Continued warming trend through Wednesday given the warm air
advection. Most locations should rise well into the 80`s with a few
locations close to 90 on Wednesday as the NBM has caught on to the
overall pattern. With dewpoints only around 60, heat index values
should not be much higher. Lows generally in the 60`s at night.

A frontal boundary still looks to move in later Wednesday and
Thursday to break down the ridge. Enough lift and moisture looks
present for at least some scattered showers with the frontal
passage. Instability during the afternoons surface CAPE is currently
modeled to be around 1,000 J/KG each afternoon and evening so some
thunderstorms will be possible as well. Still some timing
differences with the operational models and ensemble guidance with
the frontal timing. Continued to lean more toward the slower ECMWF
suite at this time. Given the timing differences it is still to
early to determine the potential for any strong to severe
thunderstorms.

The front should clear the area Thursday night with high pressure
building back into the region. Temperatures look to be knocked down
a bit back into the 50`s for lows and 70`s for highs through
Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Mid level clouds sticking around has limited fog mainly to ELM
but it has since cleared and now with the sun up, it is unlikely
to return. IFR cigs remain at BGM but will likely lift in an
hour or so. Cigs will scatter out at all terminals by 17Z with
VFR conditions at all terminals this afternoon.

Tonight, clear skies means fog formation once again. AVP and ELM
have the best chance at fog being in valleys. BGM has a smaller
chance at fog being on a hill so it was kept out of the TAFs for
now. RME, ITH, and SYR will likely stay VFR through tomorrow
morning.

Outlook...

Monday through Thursday...Mainly VFR. Some showers possible
late Wednesday through Thursday.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AJG/MJM
NEAR TERM...AJG/MJM
SHORT TERM...MWG
LONG TERM...MWG
AVIATION...AJG