564
FXUS61 KBGM 270816
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
416 AM EDT Fri Sep 27 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure building in over the area will lead to dry
conditions for most today before a chance of showers returns to
the Twin Tiers southward tonight. While the area of high
pressure is expected to suppress most of the moisture to the
south this weekend, a few showers and sprinkles are possible.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
410 AM Update...

High pressure building in from the northwest out of Canada will
lead to largely dry conditions today. Although it is expected
to be dry much of the time, sunshine will be limited over NE PA
and it will be dimmed by high clouds over much of CNY. There is
some moisture that will start to surge northward late in the day
that can lead to an isolated shower over portions of NE PA,
mainly Luzerne County. Highs today will be running above
average in the low in the mid 70s.

A lobe of energy rotating northward along the edge of a broad
upper low centered over the mid Mississippi river will help push
that influx in moisture farther north tonight and increase
chances for spotty showers, mainly from the Twin Tiers
southward. Lows for much of the area tonight will be in the mid
50s to low 60s.

Helene will be absorbed by this upper low, and the bulk of the
moisture with this system will remain to our south. However, the
surface high in control over the region today looks to shift
north and east Saturday allowing the upper low to expand
northeast toward our area with a band of moisture. As a result,
skies are expected to be mostly cloudy Saturday, and some spotty
showers and sprinkles can be seen, with the main focus again
being from the Twin Tiers south. Highs Saturday range from the
upper 60s to the mid 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
415 AM Update

This period continues to look rather cloudy with slight chance to
low end chances for a few showers at times. The moisture from the
remnants of Helene and the combining upper level low spinning over
the Ohio Valley. This system will remain nearly stationary through
much of the short term period, spinning off spokes of low to mid
level moisture in our direction. These lobes of moisture will be
running into much drier air,  as high pressure remains anchored over
northern New England and southern Quebec. Latest model guidance is
showing the potential for occasional showers Saturday night as
stream of moisture drifts north over the forecast area on the
periphery of the upper level low to our southwest. Rain amounts will
be light, mainly under a 1/4 inch, with most areas seeing even less.
Otherwise, it remains mostly cloudy to overcast overnight with lows
in the 50s to low 60s.

The modest mid level moisture remains in place for Sunday, but the
forcing is very weak and disorganized as the main center of low
pressure remains well off to our south and west, over western
Kentucky and southern Indiana. Therefore, Sunday looks to
feature mainly cloudy skies with a few sprinkles or light
showers around from time to time south of US-20 in CNY, with
marginally higher PoPs across the Catskills and parts of NE PA
(30%). Mild, with highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s expected.

A surface high actually presses and tries to build back in from the
north Sunday night into Monday in the latest 00z guidance.
Therefore, lowered PoPs from what the 12z Ensemble blend was
indicating, and nudged the rain chances back south/southwest closer
to the low. This gave mostly cloudy skies once again, but only
slight chances for a light rain shower in NE PA and out toward
Steuben county...further north and east the influence of the surface
high and a dry easterly flow should keep conditions dry. Lows are
back in the 50s, with highs in the upper 60s to low 70s...except mid-
70s Mohawk Valley and Syracuse area.

By Monday night the upper level low opens up into a trough and
starts to eject east-northeast into western PA/NY. Rain chances will
increase from southwest to northeast over our CWA through the night.
Generally steady overnight lows in the 50s for most locations.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

400 AM Update

This period will be unsettled and wet to start as a series of upper
level troughs and surface fronts moves through Tuesday into
Wednesday. The highest chances for rain will be Tuesday, Tuesday
night and into Wednesday morning. There does remain some uncertainty
in the exact timing of these features moving through, but overall
guidance continues to narrow spread. It appears the upper level low
(which combined with the remnants of Helene, will eject as an open
wave, moving through our area on Tuesday. This could bring a period
of steadier rainfall, and we are now carrying low end likely PoPs
for most of the area, except high chance up over the I-90 corridor
into the Mohawk Valley. This upper level energy eventually gets
absorbed by the next potent, incoming, fast moving upper level
trough over the northern Great Lakes. This feature approaches and
likely moves through Tuesday night into Wednesday, dragging a
surface cold front through CNY/NE PA as it moves east. This will
bring another round of rain/showers during this timeframe. There
remains some uncertainty in how fast this system will exit on
Wednesday; the latest guidance and therefore the official forecast
is trending a bit faster moving it out. However, there will
certainly still be shower chances, at least Wednesday morning over
the central and eastern portion of the forecast area. It will be
cooler on Wednesday behind the front, with highs in the upper 50s to
mid-60s expected.

Then, the weather pattern looks to feature dry, mostly sunny and
mild conditions to round out the work week (Thursday & Friday).
This is due to a strong 1024mb surface high sliding east- northeast
from the Ohio Valley on Thursday to directly overhead by Friday.
Overnight lows are cooler; back in the 40s to low 50s but daytime
highs are mild in the mid-60s to lower 70s, which is a little
above average for early October.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Varying conditions are in place early this morning as a weak
cold front departs the area and high pressure builds in along
with drier air. Lower ceilings are still possible for AVP the
next several hours with the front nearby. Farther north areas of
low clouds and fog will be possible despite a mid and high
cloud deck being present due to the increase in moisture from
Thursday`s rain and light winds. RME has fallen to below airport
mins where skies are clearest, and it is expected to remain
there through the early morning. Confidence is not as high at
the remaining CNY terminals on how low visibilities and
ceilings will drop, especially at ELM, ITH and BGM. While it`s
unusual for fog at SYR, visibilities have been gradually
dropping there and guidance continues to support this trend, so
kept it in the forecast.

VFR conditions are expected to return at all terminals between
12-14Z as high pressure promotes dry conditions. Clouds and
moisture will increase from the south tonight and that can lead
to some restrictions later in the TAF, especially for AVP and
ELM.

.Outlook...

Friday night...Mainly VFR north; some restrictions possible
south as clouds increase with shower chances, especially for
AVP.

Saturday through Monday...Mainly VFR, but occasional rain
showers may bring brief restrictions, mainly at KAVP.

Tuesday...Scattered rain showers may bring occasional
restrictions.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DK
NEAR TERM...DK
SHORT TERM...MJM
LONG TERM...MJM
AVIATION...DK