Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
492 FXUS61 KBGM 242225 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 625 PM EDT Tue Sep 24 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A warm frontal boundary will move into the region tonight and be followed by a weak cold front on Thursday. Several rounds of showers will occur with these fronts. High pressure then builds back into the region later in the week with the remnants of Helene staying to our south into the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... 620 PM Update... Showers continue to move eastward into the region. These light showers are mainly impacting portions of CNY currently but some scattered showers are beginning to move into NEPA. PoPs were updated based on current radar and updated short-range guidance. Manual adjustments were also made to not stray too far from the previous forecast. The rest of the forecast was doing fairly well, though some minor adjustments were made to temps and winds to better match the latest observations. Previous Discussion... Clouds and some drizzle have kept temperatures from rising too much across the region today. Would expect only a slow dropoff tonight with the temperatures into the 50`s given a modest 40 knot or so LLJ. Enough lift and moisture look to be present for several rounds of showers as well. A few rumbles of thunder are possible given some elevated instability in place. A few more rounds of showers are likely through a good portion of Thursday. However, rainfall rates do not look heavy at times with quite a few breaks as well. QPF looks to be around a half inch or less. Once again clouds should keep the temperatures from rising higher than the 60`s with lows only a few degrees cooler as a result of the clouds. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... 300 PM Update: A frontal system will work its way through the region on Thursday, which will bring scattered showers and possibly a few thunderstorms to the area. This front will have an earlier passage, so areas west of I-81 may dry out for the afternoon, with lingering showers still present east of I-81. Otherwise, partly sunny to mostly cloudy skies are expected with highs in the lower to mid 70s. A few isolated showers may remain early Thursday evening, but otherwise most of the area will be mainly dry with lows mainly in the 50s. High pressure will bring dry conditions for Friday along with partly to mostly sunny skies and high temperatures in the lower to mid 70s. A few isolated showers will be possible from the Twin Tiers southward Friday night with potentially some moisture advecting in between an upper level low across the Canadian Maritimes and another low across the Mississippi River Valley, but the chance are that the entire area will remain rain-free. Lows are expected to mainly be in the 50s once again. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... 300 PM Update: Mainly dry conditions are anticipated for the weekend with surface high pressure in control and moisture associated with the remnants of Helene remaining across the Mississippi River Valley area. This closed upper low will transition to more of an open wave early next week and potentially bring showers to the area around the Tuesday timeframe. This is far from a certainty though as there is some model guidance that keeps this moisture well south of our area. Temperatures in the long term will remain slightly above normal (highs mainly in the lower to mid 70s). && .AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... MVFR ceilings should largely remain in place for the rest of the afternoon. It is possible and mentioned through TEMPOS for the ceilings to lift to VFR for brief intervals. However, ceilings should generally start to lower a bit in the MVFR range. Some IFR ceilings toward sunrise are possible at KELM,KAVP,KITH and KBGM. These ceilings should only be slow to lift again on Wednesday. A few rounds of showers are also expected with the highest chances for visibility restrictions toward sunrise and then till the end of the TAF period. A few southeast wind gusts may approach 20 knots from time to time as well. Weak speed LLWS is possible as well for a time overnight but some uncertainity is still present and it was not included with the updated TAFS. A brief rumble of thunder can not be ruled out with the showers as well. .Outlook... Wednesday afternoon through Thursday... MVFR and IFR with showers passing through the region. Embedded thunder could also occur later on Wednesday. Thursday night through Sunday...Mainly VFR. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MWG NEAR TERM...BTL/MWG SHORT TERM...BJG LONG TERM...BJG AVIATION...MWG