Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND
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395 FXUS63 KBIS 260530 AFDBIS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Bismarck ND 1230 AM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - A warming trend will continue with widespread highs in the 80s and a few 90s on Thursday. - Near critical fire weather conditions are expected Thursday over a good portion of western and south central North Dakota, including the James River Valley. - Dry conditions with temperatures at or above normal continue through the weekend. Turning cooler Monday. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1230 AM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024 Clear skies will continue through tonight, with a few high clouds possible in the northwest. Overnight lows will be slightly warmer tonight, and generally in the mid 50s to lower 60s. Overall the forecast remains on track. UPDATE Issued at 958 PM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024 Quiet weather continues with clear skies. No changes needed to the forecast at this time. UPDATE Issued at 625 PM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024 Quiet weather and clear skies continue over the area with upper ridge passing over. No changes needed at this time. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 216 PM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024 Currently, surface high pressure was located over the eastern Dakotas and Minnesota with low pressure over southern Alberta Canada and troughing in the lee of the Northern Rockies. Southerly winds are increasing over eastern Montana and the western Dakotas. In the upper atmosphere a strong upper level ridge was situated over the central portion of the country and extending into central Canada. For tonight, a moderate southerly flow will spread east across the state with increasing south winds aloft. We have mentioned LLWS at all TAF sites tonight due to the strong winds aloft. It may be breezy at times overnight, especially in elevated exposed locations. Lows will be in the upper 50s to mid 60s. Thursday will be quite warm especially over portions of southwest and south central North Dakota, where highs will climb into the 90s. The strongest winds will shift into central ND by Thursday afternoon. Currently bufkit soundings indicated sustained winds of around 25 mph will be possible with gust into the 35 to 40 mph range. Presently winds look to be near or just below advisory criteria Thursday afternoon over the James River Valley and will not issue an advisory, but will pass this along to the overnight shift as and let them evaluate as later data arrives. It will be breezy to windy along and east of the Highway 83 corridor with winds out of the south to southeast. A cold front will move through western and into central ND Thursday afternoon. Winds will increase over western ND behind the front Thursday afternoon. Winds will be lightest Thursday afternoon over central North Dakota as they shift from southeast to southwest and eventually northwest. More on this below in the Fire Weather section. It will be cooler on Friday with temperatures ranging from the lower 70s Turtle Mountains to the mid 80s southwest. It will also be less windy, but it may be a little breezy (from the southwest) Friday afternoon over northwest ND. No precipitation is expected with the Frontal passage Thursday or behind the Front on Friday. Dry conditions will also continue through the weekend and into early next week. Temperatures will warm again through the weekend with an other warm and breezy to windy day on Sunday. A mostly dry cold front ushers in cooler air to begin the work week. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1230 AM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024 Low-level wind shear will be found across most TAF sites tonight, coming to an end during the morning hours Thursday as winds increase and start to turn west to northwest from a cold front passage through the area. Breezy to windy conditions are then possible through Thursday, diminishing Thursday night. Otherwise, mostly clear and VFR conditions are expected. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 216 PM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024 A cold front will move through western and into central North Dakota by Thursday afternoon. Behind the cold front northwest winds of 15 to 25 mph will move into western North Dakota. It will be slightly more humid behind the cold front, especially farther to the north, while the strongest winds behind the front will be over northwest ND, compared to the southwest. Therefore we expect near critical fire weather conditions over much of the western third of North Dakota Thursday. Because the strongest winds Thursday afternoon (northwest) do not match up with the lowest humidities (southwest) and grasses have not completely cured, we do not anticipate a Red Flag Warning at this time. However, we will continue to monitor as winds and Humidity values may worsen, necessitating an upgrade to a Red Flag Warning. To the east of the cold front, over the James River Valley and into eastern North Dakota, strong south winds of 20 to 30 mph with gust possibly up to 40 mph will develop by Thursday afternoon. Although humidities will be higher over the James River Valley (25 to 35 percent) winds will be strong enough to necessitate a mention of near critical fire weather conditions. In between the west and the James River Valley, the cold front will be moving over central North Dakota Thursday afternoon. The far south central may see some of the lowest afternoon humidities Thursday afternoon, but winds here are not expected to be strong as the front moves across this area during the afternoon. However humidities will be low enough with some breezy afternoon conditions that near critical fire weather conditions are warranted. Portions of central ND east of the Highway 83 corridor into the Turtle Mountains and the Devils Lake Basin will see lighter winds and high enough humidities that fire weather concerns will be minimal. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE...Anglin DISCUSSION...TWH AVIATION...Anglin FIRE WEATHER...TWH