Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND
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264 FXUS63 KBIS 212323 AFDBIS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Bismarck ND 623 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Areas of frost tonight west and parts of south central as skies clear, winds diminish, and temperatures dip into the lower to mid 30s. - Gradual warming trend as we progress through the upcoming week. - Dry weather prevails. && .UPDATE... Issued at 623 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024 No major changes were made to the forecast for this update. Winds continue to decrease through the evening, along with the cumulus field continuing to erode closer to sunset. Otherwise, just blended the current observations into the forecast. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 129 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024 Current surface analysis places low over western Minnesota with cold front sweeping to the southwest, while high remains over central Montana into Alberta/Saskatchewan. Upper level analysis places trough over Manitoba, with fast cyclonic flow over our area. Gusty northwest winds continue over much of our area between systems, but have remained rather steady over the past few hours as the main pressure rises have pushed well to the east. Scattered to broken cloud cover has developed over the area with fair weather cumulus in the cyclonic flow. For the rest of this afternoon into this evening, winds will be steady before diminishing as evening approaches and high settles southeastward. Cloud cover will also diminish with the loss of daytime heating, leading to mainly clear skies. With the cold airmass settling in, winds going light, and skies clearing frost becomes a concern. NBM50 has remained quite consistent with dipping temperatures well into the 30s over the west, and latest run of the NBM has somewhat caught on with that scenario. Although a bit old school, MAV and MET guidance, which have historically worked quite well with low temperatures in frost/freeze situations, continue to show lows dipping well into the 30s over these areas. Therefore, have gone ahead and issued a frost advisory for most of the west including all areas east of the Missouri River on the south end. Frost advisory goes into early Sunday morning. Thereafter, a rather pleasant fall day is expected with highs running mainly in the 60s which is only a bit below average. Monday we will see an upper level trough push through the area, but really do not expect any precipitation to come of this, just an increase in cloud cover. Upper ridge builds into the area through mid week resulting in a warming trend and continued cool conditions. Ridge pushes east late-week but most systems at this time appear to continue sliding to the north of the area, so dry forecast continues at this time. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/... Issued at 623 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024 VFR conditions are present at all terminals, and will prevail through the TAF period. A scattered to overcast cumulus field covers much of the area, slowly eroding as we approach sunset. Once these clouds clear out, light and variable winds and clear skies will dominate the TAF period. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Frost Advisory from 1 AM CDT /midnight MDT/ to 9 AM CDT /8 AM MDT/ Sunday for NDZ001-002-009-010-017>020-031>034-040>045. && $$ UPDATE...Besson DISCUSSION...JJS AVIATION...Besson