Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND
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158 FXUS63 KBIS 221115 AFDBIS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Bismarck ND 615 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Areas of frost are possible this morning across the west and parts of the south central. Lows here will dip into the low to mid 30s. - With the exception of a passing shower northwest on Monday (15 percent chance), expect dry weather through the rest of the weekend and the next work week. - A gradual warming trend is expected as we progress through the next work week. && .UPDATE... Issued at 611 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024 A quiet and chilly Sunday morning continues across western and central North Dakota. Thus far, we have seen several readings across the west in the lower 30s. No major changes were needed for this update. Just blended in the latest observations to the going forecast. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 300 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024 Western and central North Dakota sits under the influence of northwest flow aloft and high pressure at the surface. Light winds and a clear sky will lead to seasonably cold temperatures this morning, especially across the west where we are already seeing widespread temperatures in the mid to upper 30s. The expectation is that we will continue to get a bit colder through the morning hours, with several stations likely to dip into the lower 30s across the west. Thus, the Frost Advisory looks to be in good shape with no changes planned. Today`s highs will be just a touch warmer than yesterday with relatively light winds. Highs will be in the lower 60s to the lower 70s (warmest southwest and south central) under plenty of sunshine. The upper level flow will deamplify through the day, becoming nearly zonal by this evening and into the overnight hours. The next shortwave trough then approaches on Monday. While most of the synoptic forcing will remain north of the International border, the NBM is starting to paint in some low chances (15 percent) of showers across the northwest on Monday along a surface boundary. Highs will be another touch warmer on Monday even though we will likely have fairly widespread cloud cover (mid 60s to mid 70s). The trough moves off into western Minnesota by Tuesday morning and we transition back into northwest flow aloft as a western CONUS ridge amplifies. The ridge will advance east through the week with the axis moving overhead late Wednesday through Thursday morning. We will then transition back into southwest flow aloft. This pattern will lead to warming temperatures mid to late week. Highs are forecast to range from the mid 70s to mid 80s by Wednesday with some upper 80s possible again across the southwest on Thursday. After the slight rain shower chances on Monday, the rest of the week is forecast to be dry. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/... Issued at 611 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024 VFR conditions are expected through the period at all sites. Southerly winds will become a bit breezy across the north central towards the end of the period, mainly impacting KMOT. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Frost Advisory until 9 AM CDT /8 AM MDT/ this morning for NDZ001-002-009-010-017>020-031>034-040>045. && $$ UPDATE...ZH DISCUSSION...ZH AVIATION...ZH