784
FXUS63 KBIS 262323
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
623 PM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Near critical fire weather conditions continue into early this
  evening across portions of western and central North Dakota.

- Breezy to windy conditions continue early this evening, with
  winds diminishing later in the evening.

- Above normal temperatures and dry conditions continue through
  the weekend, with breezy winds possibly returning on Sunday
  into early next week.

- Temperatures turn cooler early to mid next week. Low
  temperatures could dip into the mid 30s to mid 40s, with
  highs forecast in the upper 50s to upper 60s.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 617 PM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024

Frontal boundary now stretches from near Bottineau southward
just to the east of Bismarck. Before the front came through,
Bismarck reached 96 degrees which tied the record from 1936.
Winds continue to be gusty behind the front, but this should
ease as we go through the evening, while the front continues to
progress east. As for the forecast, only change was to bump
winds up a bit behind the progressing front.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 256 PM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024

An upper level ridge continues to move over Minnesota as an
upper level trough digs across southern Saskatchewan. This has
placed the low level thermal ridge across southwestern and south
central North Dakota this afternoon. Thus, temperatures have
warmed into the upper 80s to lower 90s across the aforementioned
areas. The remainder of the state sits in the 80s. Dickinson
has broken their previous record high temperature of 92 degrees
set in 1963 with a current high temperature of 93 degrees, which
could be higher by the end of the day. A surface pressure
trough associated with a cold front continues to move across the
western half of the state. This will bring a wind shift and
slightly cooler temperatures as it passes west to east. Winds
ahead of the front remain around 25 to 30 kts as a strong north
south orientated pressure gradient reinforces gusty winds
across the James River Valley. The northwest will also see windy
post frontal winds this afternoon. Near critical fire weather
conditions are being observed across portions of western and
south central North Dakota this afternoon, read the fire weather
discussion for more information.

Surface high pressure will move into the region by early
tomorrow morning resulting in cooler temperatures. Overnight
low temperatures are forecast to drop down into the 40s tonight,
around ten degrees cooler then last night. The main flow will
switch to zonal as a ridge builds out west. Temperatures are
forecast to cool a few degrees tomorrow but remain above normal
for this time of year. High temperatures are forecast to sit in
the lower 70s in the northeast to the mid 80s in the southwest.

Temperatures will begin to trend upward this weekend again as
the upper level ridge in the west builds. Temperatures will
climb into the 80s to lower 90s in the southwest through Sunday.
Dry conditions will continue through the period with the warmer
temperatures. Fire weather conditions may return to the region
Sunday as winds are forecast to pick across the area with dry
conditions. Sunday night an upper level trough will progress
through the Northern Plains bringing forth a cold front. Slight
chance (20%) of rain returns to the far northern half of the
state as the upper level trough moves trough the region Monday.
This system will bring back fall like temperatures to the state
as high temperatures are forecast to warm into the upper 50s to
60s Monday/Tuesday. Low temperatures Tuesday could result in
frosty to freezing conditions across the western half of the
state. A more active pattern is favored in the extended as broad
troughing moves into the western half of the state.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 617 PM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024

Winds remain gusty behind a cold front that now stretches from
near Bottineau southward to just east of Bismarck. The front
will continue to progress east with winds switching to the
northwest, but speeds should be on the decrease as we go through
the evening. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 256 PM CDT Thur Sep 26 2024

Hot, dry, and windy conditions have lead to near critical fire
weather conditions across portions of western and south central
North Dakota. Minimum relative humidity has dropped down as low
as 12 percent in the southwest, but the winds remain around 10
to 15 mph limiting critical fire weather conditions. The
northwest has stronger winds around 20 to 25 mph behind a cold
front, but the relative humidity is forecast to increase from 25
percent to 35 percent this afternoon as cooler air filters
behind the cold front. The James River Valley is seeing
sustained winds around 30 mph with gusts up to 40 mph, but the
cold front is almost through he Bismarck area as of 2:30 PM CDT
which will result in winds decreasing and shifting out of the
southwest. Relative humidity is around 30 percent in the James
River Valley with live herbaceous fuels limiting critical fire
weather conditions. The cold front will continue to progress
into the James River Valley this afternoon shifting the wind to
northwesterly by this evening. Wind gusts will continue to
diminish this afternoon as the surface trough moves across the
state. The ingredients are here for critical fire weather
conditions, however the driest conditions do not overlap with
windiest conditions or the fuels are not ready yet resulting in
near critical conditions today. Near critical fire weather may
return to the forecast area Sunday as another front and strong
southerly winds return.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
DISCUSSION...Johnson
AVIATION...JJS
FIRE WEATHER...Johnson