Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND
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824 FXUS63 KBIS 251359 AFDBIS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Bismarck ND 859 AM CDT Sat May 25 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Shower and thunderstorm chances (about 60 percent) return Sunday morning through Monday morning. - Brief dry period for Tuesday into early Wednesday, with active weather pattern returning for the rest of the week. && .UPDATE... Issued at 850 AM CDT Sat May 25 2024 The Frost Advisory and Freeze warning were allowed to expire at the planned 13z time. No major updates this morning otherwise, fog has dissipated and the rain showers in the north are gone. The forecast still on track for a sunny Saturday. UPDATE Issued at 604 AM CDT Sat May 25 2024 For early morning update radar echos over northwest North Dakota have been reluctant to dissipate, so have added some low chances for the next couple of hours. Over portions of western and south central North Dakota some patches of fog have developed, so have added that to the forecast through the early morning. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 344 AM CDT Sat May 25 2024 Current surface analysis places low near and just to the north of Lake of the Woods along the Manitoba/Ontario border. Upper level analysis shows low nearly stacked, with weak ridging to the lee of the Rockies. A few weak waves currently rotating around the low, one of which is possibly producing a few light rain/snow showers over the northwest per latest radar imagery, though no surface observations are picking up on this at this moment. Many locations in our area have dipped into the mid 30s, in line with the ongoing frost/freeze headlines. For today, a quiet day is expected as upper low lifts northerly and warmer air starts to return to the area. With that said, high temperatures will still be about 5 to 10 degrees below average (with average highs this time of year hovering around 70). Then next short wave wraps in south of the aforementioned low very late tonight into Sunday, resulting in elevated rain shower chances (~50-70 percent chance) Sunday spreading west to east. Enough instability will be present for some thunderstorms to occur, but at this time the severe potential remains low. Chances for showers remain into Monday primarily over eastern portions of the area as the upper low starts to open and becomes wrapped behind the trough to the east, passing through our area. Ridge to the west gradually slides through our area for Tuesday into the start of Wednesday, bringing a dry period and a very gradual warming trend with temperatures climbing into the 70s across the area by Wednesday. Ridge slides east late day Wednesday into Thursday, with shower/thunderstorm chances returning as pattern becomes active again through the end of the week. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 850 AM CDT Sat May 25 2024 VFR conditions through the period. Winds will be light and variable. VFR clouds and rain showers will move west to east across the area starting Sunday morning through Sunday afternoon. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE...Smith DISCUSSION...JJS AVIATION...JJS/Smith