110
FXUS64 KBMX 261126
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
626 AM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday Night)
Issued at 338 AM CDT THU SEP 26 2024

We are beginning to see the outer edge of Helene provide some
added moisture into the southeast. This moisture is feeding into
the stalled front near the I-85 corridor. The resultant has been
persistent rain bands that will continue to provide substantial
rainfall through the morning. Eufaula has already had upwards of 2
inches since Midnight and will continue to see rain for a
prolonged period. Through collaboration with WPC, we have
increased the flooding concerns over the far southeast for the
next 24 hours. We could see significant flooding, especially in
Barbour county. An additional 4 to 8 inches of rain can be
expected in the east, with locally higher totals, especially in
the southeast. While we will remain on the west side of the track
of Helene, we will possibly see tropical storm force winds across
our far eastern counties. The most reasonable time frame for
tropical storm force winds to move into the area will be between 8
and 11 PM in the southeast, then sliding north.

Helene will continue to slide quickly north-northeast tonight and
into Friday morning. At this time the remnants of Helene should
merge with an upper low that is currently northwest of the area.
This should keep rainfall heavy across the northern third of the
area. This low should slide west a touch by Friday night, giving
the area a reprieve from the rain, but the cloud cover will
remain.

16

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 338 AM CDT THU SEP 26 2024

The areas of rainfall will decrease around the cut-off low on
Saturday through Sunday. Meanwhile, the cut-off low persists over
the region through at least Monday before shifting to our east
Monday night into Tuesday. Still may see a few light shower
activity under the closed upper level low over the weekend, but
most guidance keeps the area rain-free, so confidence to mention
any rain chances remains too low right now, but it`s something
we`ll need to watch for in the next few days. If there is a better
day for for a brief shower or two it looks like Monday as the
upper low pushes east. Beyond Monday, high pressure will remain
in control with temperatures generally in the low to mid 80s.

16

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 625 AM CDT THU SEP 26 2024

IFR ceilings are in place across much of the area this morning,
with rain showers beginning to move back into the area. MGM will
likely see the showers in an hour or so, and then expand north and
west through the morning. TCL may hold off until this afternoon.
We will see some improvement this morning, but then will decrease
as the rain bands move in this afternoon and tonight. Winds will
increase through the night, with the strongest winds at MGM/ANB/
ASN beginning at 00z in MGM and 6z in the rest of the sites. The
highest winds will be at MGM/ANB/ and ASN.

16

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

With tropical moisture increasing ahead of Hurricane Helene and a
stalled frontal boundary, widespread rain is expected through
tonight, with rain chances diminishing through the day on Friday.
Highest chances on Friday will be across the north. Minimal RH
values will be above 60% through the weekend. Winds increase
substantially on this evening and overnight as the tropical
system approaches the northern Gulf coast. Wind gusts of 25-30 mph
are possible for much of Central Alabama, with gusts exceeding
50 mph in the eastern half of Central AL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     75  64  75  61 / 100 100  60  20
Anniston    75  64  76  63 / 100 100  40  10
Birmingham  77  63  75  63 /  70 100  60  20
Tuscaloosa  81  62  77  63 /  20  50  50  20
Calera      77  63  77  64 /  70  90  40  20
Auburn      75  64  78  64 / 100 100  20   0
Montgomery  75  63  80  64 /  90  90  10   0
Troy        74  63  80  63 / 100 100  10   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch from 1 PM CDT this afternoon through Friday morning
for the following counties: Autauga-Blount-Chilton-Jefferson-
Lowndes-Shelby.

Wind Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 1 PM CDT Friday for the
following counties: Autauga-Blount-Calhoun-Chilton-Clay-Coosa-
Elmore-Etowah-Jefferson-Lowndes-Montgomery-Shelby-St. Clair-
Talladega-Tallapoosa.

Flood Watch through Friday morning for the following counties:
Barbour-Bullock-Calhoun-Chambers-Cherokee-Clay-Cleburne-Coosa-
Elmore-Etowah-Lee-Macon-Montgomery-Pike-Randolph-Russell-St.
Clair-Talladega-Tallapoosa.

Tropical Storm Warning for the following counties: Barbour-
Bullock-Chambers-Cherokee-Cleburne-Lee-Macon-Pike-Randolph-
Russell.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...16