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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
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208 FXUS64 KBMX 221816 AFDBMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 116 PM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024 ...New SHORT TERM... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Monday) Issued at 115 PM CDT SUN SEP 22 2024 This afternoon. Elongated mid-level ridging extended from over much of Central Mexico northeast to over the Northwest Gulf of Mexico. Surface high pressure over Southeast Canada continues to extend southwest down the Appalachians into the Deep South Region. A few disturbances in the zonal flow pattern over portions of the Tennessee and Ohio River Valley Regions continue to move east and will support the potential for a few showers across the far northern tier of counties this afternoon into the evening hours. Expect partly cloudy skies this afternoon. There will be a small chance for a few light showers across portions of the far northern portion of the area this afternoon and evening. Winds will be from the northwest at 4-8 mph. High temperatures will range from around 90 in the higher elevations east to the mid 90s west and southwest. Tonight. Elongated mid-level ridging will shrink in extent with time overnight, becoming centered over the Northwest Gulf of Mexico while an upper-level disturbance over Colorado progresses eastward as a open wave over the Central Plains late tonight. A surface cold front will advance southeast across the Plains, extending from Northern Ohio southwest into Central Arkansas toward daybreak while residual surface high pressure remains across much of the Eastern portion of the country. Look for mostly clear skies south with partly cloudy skies to the north overnight. Some patchy fog may briefly develop toward sunrise across portions of the north-central and northwest areas. Winds will be light overnight from the northwest. Low temperatures will range from the mid 60s in the higher elevations east to around 70 west and central. Monday. Mid-level ridging will continue to contract with time over the Northern Gulf west to over Northern Mexico while troughing continues to develop over the Central and Northern Plains. A surface front will slowly advance further east, extending from Kentucky southwest into Northwest Louisiana by late in the afternoon. Surface high pressure will migrate further northeast with its presence weakening further with time. Look for partly cloudy skies Monday with isolated showers and a few storms forecast across the northern third of the area with lower chances across the central counties and very low chances further south. Winds will be from the northwest at 4-8 mph. High temperatures will range from around 90 far north and in the higher elevations east to readings in the mid 90s southwest. 05 && .LONG TERM... (Monday night through Saturday) Issued at 400 AM CDT SUN SEP 22 2024 Upper level ridge along the Gulf coast will help to keep conditions dry in central Alabama through at least Monday night. By Tuesday, the ridge is flattened a bit by an upper trough moving across the Ohio valley, which helps push a surface front onto our doorstep to the northwest. By the time the front gets here, low level convergence associated with it is rather week. It could produce a few showers or even a thunderstorm or two, but the main impact from this first trough/front may likely just end up being more clouds and a moderation of temperatures. However, that lead shortwave is quickly followed up by a more substantial trough that digs southward into the midwest/midsouth region. It is with this deepening trough that the global models start to diverge. And those model differences (in timing, placement, and strength) remain important in determining whether or not any potential tropical system entering the Gulf would have direct, peripheral, borderline, or null impacts for us here in central Alabama. Therefore, we shall keep using model blends to keep from focusing on any particular run of any particular model, which will in turn allow us to keep forecast update options open (in either direction) as we get into the end of the week into next weekend. /61/ && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1216 PM CDT SUN SEP 22 2024 VFR conditions are expected through Monday morning. Expect scattered cumulus developing over the area this afternoon with low-level winds from the northwest at 3-6 kts. A shower or two will be possible across the far north/northeast this afternoon and evening but chances are quite low. Overnight, expect some scattered clouds north with near calm winds. There will be potential for some limited reductions to visibility before sunrise Monday across portions of the north and northwest areas. Scattered clouds are expected on Monday with isolated showers across the north toward late morning with scattered clouds south and broken clouds north. Winds will be from the northwest at 2-4 kts. AMD NOT SKED for KANB due to equipment communication issues until further notice. 05 && .FIRE WEATHER... Rain chances will remain near zero through Monday as high pressure prevails. With temperatures in the 90s and a modestly dry airmass in place, minimum RH values should range from 35 to 50 percent through Monday. 20 foot winds will be westerly or variable at less than 7 mph. An increase in moisture is expected for Tuesday and Wednesday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 67 91 69 90 / 10 20 0 10 Anniston 68 91 70 90 / 10 20 0 10 Birmingham 70 91 73 91 / 0 10 0 10 Tuscaloosa 69 93 71 92 / 0 10 0 10 Calera 69 92 73 91 / 0 10 0 10 Auburn 69 92 73 90 / 0 10 0 10 Montgomery 69 94 73 93 / 0 10 0 0 Troy 68 93 70 90 / 0 10 0 10 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...05 LONG TERM....02 AVIATION...05