Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
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760 FXUS64 KBMX 271152 AFDBMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 652 AM CDT Fri Sep 27 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Saturday) Issued at 206 AM CDT FRI SEP 27 2024 Hurricane Helene continues to lift quickly north-northeastward across Georgia. The upper low will eventually pull it back to the northwest, and it will remain a powerful extratropical cyclone across Kentucky and Tennessee tonight. Dry air has been eating away at the western side of the rain shield, but strong low-level convergence is driving a heavy tropical rain band across our far eastern counties. This is where flash flooding will remain likely. Rain will end quickly from south to north this morning. Will keep an eye on the far northeast counties where a flooding threat could linger a bit past the 7 AM flood watch expiration. Starting to see some increasing wind gusts as winds begin to take on more of a westerly component and the drier air increases mixing. This will result in wind gusts around 35 mph through this morning across the eastern half of the state, possibly near 40 mph right along the state line. As the upper low drifts southeastward in response to Helene lifting northwestward, wraparound moisture and light shower activity will move back in from the northwest this afternoon and evening. Southwest winds will remain gusty, with high res-models showing some 40 to 50kt winds in the 925-850mb layer. This will result in gradient wind gusts around 35 kts across the northern counties, where a wind advisory remains in effect. On Saturday, post-tropical Helene will be vertically stacked with the upper low centered over the Mid-South. Winds will remain breezy but will be below advisory criteria. Showers will remain possible in the northern counties near the upper low with lingering wraparound moisture, while warming temperatures are expected across the southern counties. 32/JDavis && .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through next Thursday) Issued at 143 AM CDT FRI SEP 27 2024 The main upper level low continues to linger across much of the area Sunday, leading to some lingering showers across the northern portions of Central AL. This should slowly lift more northward as we go into the early part of next week, ending rain chances for Central AL. The trough axis slide to our east Tuesday and high pressure builds in through the Southeastern CONUS Wednesday through Thursday. This will lead to rain-free conditions for much of the upcoming week. Highs will generally be in the 80s with lows in the 60s. A frontal boundary is possible Wednesday into Thursday, but guidance differs on whether the front reaches Central AL or stalls to our north. Either way, we should remain dry, but if it moves into the area, we could see a subtle drop in temperatures around mid-week. 25/Owen && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 637 AM CDT FRI SEP 27 2024 Tropical Storm Helene continues to move northward across Georgia this morning. An area of moderate to heavy rainfall continues across northeast Central Alabama, and has rotated north and away from all forecast terminals. Meanwhile, wraparound isolated to scattered showers will spread southward across west Central Alabama through today. A mix of IFR/MVFR/VFR cigs start the forecast period, and expect MVFR cigs to remain across northern terminals through much of the day, with improvement at MGM by mid morning. Elevated westerly winds will continue through today, becoming southwesterly as Helene continues north and away from the area. Sustained winds of 12-18kts with gusts up to 30kts are possible. AMD NOT SKED at ANB due to occasional comms issues. 14 && .FIRE WEATHER... Winds will continue to be gusty today before decreasing on Saturday. Rain chances decrease through the day today with the best chances across the north. Min RHs will be around 50% across the south with 70-80% in the north. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 74 62 75 59 / 60 30 30 10 Anniston 75 63 78 62 / 40 10 20 0 Birmingham 74 64 76 62 / 40 30 20 0 Tuscaloosa 77 63 79 61 / 40 30 20 0 Calera 77 64 80 63 / 20 20 20 0 Auburn 78 63 82 64 / 10 0 10 0 Montgomery 81 64 85 63 / 0 0 0 0 Troy 80 63 84 63 / 0 0 0 0 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Wind Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 10 PM CDT this evening for the following counties: Fayette-Lamar-Marion-Pickens- Tuscaloosa-Walker-Winston. Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT this morning for the following counties: Blount-Calhoun-Cherokee-Cleburne-Etowah. Wind Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for the following counties: Blount-Calhoun-Cherokee-Clay-Cleburne-Etowah-Jefferson- Randolph-Shelby-St. Clair-Talladega. Wind Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for the following counties: Autauga-Barbour-Bullock-Chambers-Chilton-Coosa-Elmore- Lee-Lowndes-Macon-Montgomery-Pike-Russell-Tallapoosa. && $$ SHORT TERM...32 LONG TERM....25 AVIATION...14