Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boise, ID
Issued by NWS Boise, ID
186 FXUS65 KBOI 261447 AFDBOI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boise ID 847 AM MDT Sun May 26 2024 .DISCUSSION...Mostly clear skies will continue today as temperatures warm to just a few degrees below normal. Gusty winds, associated with mostly dry convection, will occur in eastern Oregon Monday afternoon and evening, and there`s a good chance (20-40% in the valleys, 40-80% in the mountains) of showers and thunderstorms Tuesday. No changes needed at this time. && .AVIATION...VFR with mostly clear skies. Surface winds: NW 5-15 kt with gusts to 25 kt, especially SE of KBOI/KMUO. 10kft MSL: W-NW 15-30 kt. KBOI...VFR. NW 5-15 kt with brief gusts to 20 kt possible after 18Z. && .PREV DISCUSSION... SHORT TERM...Today through Tuesday night...Quiet weather is in store today and Monday as an upper level ridge moves overhead and amplifies into Monday. Expect mostly sunny skies and temperatures a couple degrees below normal today. Winds will be lighter but still breezy in the Magic Valley, where gusts 20-30 mph will develop this afternoon. Temperatures will warm around 10 degrees on Monday as the ridge builds and the flow aloft becomes southwesterly ahead of a Pacific trough. A weak shortwave will bring a 5-15% chance of showers and thunderstorms to southeast Oregon Monday evening. The upper level trough will approach our area on Tuesday with increasing southwest flow aloft. Temperatures will rise about 5 degrees from Monday with highs 10-15 degrees above normal. Lower valley highs will reach into the upper 80s with a 30-50% chance of hitting 90 degrees. Moisture will increase by Tuesday afternoon, and as the trough approaches there will be sufficient instability for a 20-50% chance (except a 60-80% chance across the west-central Idaho mountains) of showers and thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon and evening. A cold front is also expected to move through Tuesday night with gusty winds. LONG TERM...Wednesday through Sunday...There is good agreement amongst model guidance that a trough of low pressure will migrate west to east across the northern Rockies mid/late week. This trough will help to bring more seasonable temperatures, and precipitation chances between 15-50%, with the highest values over the central Idaho mountains. Breezy conditions will be possible Wed/Thu as the trough passes as well. Indications are that the ridge of high pressure will rebound northward over the region for the remainder of next week, ushering in warming and dry conditions. && .BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...None. OR...None. && $$ www.weather.gov/Boise Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSBoise www.twitter.com/NWSBoise DISCUSSION...SP AVIATION.....SP SHORT TERM...ST LONG TERM....MC