Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boise, ID
Issued by NWS Boise, ID
108 FXUS65 KBOI 211513 AFDBOI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boise ID 913 AM MDT Sat Sep 21 2024 .DISCUSSION...No updates to current forecast. Warming trend starting Monday will peak Wednesday and latest NBM has BOI reaching 88 degrees, a little higher than before. Models diverge after that and by Friday GFS and ECMWF are completely out of phase. No clear preference for now. && .AVIATION...VFR under mostly clear skies. Surface winds: Light mainly northwest to 10 kt. Winds at 10kft: N 5-15 kt. KBOI...VFR. Light northwest winds to 10 kt. Sunday Outlook...VFR with increasing high clouds late. Light and variable surface winds less than 10 kt. && .PREV DISCUSSION... SHORT TERM...Today through Monday night...Mild and dry weather continues under light northwest flow today and Sunday. A shortwave trough will dig southeast along the ID/MT border Sunday night, increasing clouds and wind Sunday night into Monday. Any chance of precipitation remains to the north and east of the area. Monday will see dry and breezy conditions in the wake of the trough with little change in high temperatures from Sunday. LONG TERM...Tuesday through Saturday...Temperatures warm through Wednesday as an upper ridge crosses the region. High temperatures on Wednesday will reach about 10 degrees above normal under an increasing southwest flow aloft. Models are in better agreement on how to handle energy entering the NW late Wed/Thur with a shortwave trough lifting from Oregon into the ID panhandle. While the NBM solution remains dry at this time, not sure it`s catching the convective potential as moisture and heating ahead of the trough are both well above normal. If the track/timing of this system holds, would expect to see precipitation chances increase for Wednesday, especially across e-central Oregon. A dry and more zonal or slightly southwest flow follows for Thur/Fri with the potential for another trough to move into the Pac NW next Saturday, though models vary on the amplitude. Temperatures will pull back to around normal by the end of next week. && .BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...None. OR...None. && $$ www.weather.gov/Boise Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSBoise www.twitter.com/NWSBoise DISCUSSION...LC AVIATION.....LC SHORT TERM...DG LONG TERM....DG