Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boise, ID
Issued by NWS Boise, ID
731 FXUS65 KBOI 230241 AFDBOI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boise ID 841 PM MDT Sun Sep 22 2024 .DISCUSSION...This evening will bring a few high clouds as a dry cold front moves through the region. These clouds, along with light west-northwest winds, may keep temperatures slightly warmer than last night. As of 8:30 PM MDT, satellite imagery shows no hot spots on the Three Point Fire near Lucky Peak, so smoke is not expected to be an issue. However, if the fire becomes active again, light downslope easterly winds could potentially bring smoke into the Boise metro area overnight. Looking ahead, the upper-level ridge along the Pacific Northwest coast is forecasted to shift inland on Monday, causing temperatures to rise by 2-4 degrees compared to today. This warming trend is expected to continue through Tuesday and Wednesday, with temperatures increasing by about 5 degrees each day for both daytime highs and overnight lows. No updates are needed at this time. && .AVIATION...VFR. Cirrus clouds. Scattered altocumulus in northern mountains through 23/15Z. Clearing Monday morning. Surface winds: northwest 5-10kt tonight, increasing to 10-20kt Monday, with afternoon gusts 25kt in the central Snake Basin. Winds at 10kft MSL: Northwest 15-20kt. KBOI...VFR. Scattered to broken cirrus. Light winds tonight becoming northwest 10-15kt Monday. && .PREV DISCUSSION... SHORT TERM...Tonight through Tuesday night...Increasing high clouds from the northwest tonight as a weak dry cold front moves through northern and central Idaho. Clouds and breezes from the front will cause warmer low temps tonight. A Pacific upper ridge will come inland Monday and quickly end any morning cooling behind the front. Monday afternoon will end up 2-4 degrees warmer than today. The warming trend will continue Tuesday into Wednesday as the upper ridge comes fully inland, averaging about 5 degrees per day on both low and high temps. Winds Monday will be breezy northwest with afternoon gusts to 30 mph in the Snake Basin from Mountain Home eastward. Lighter gusts elsewhere. Winds will die down Monday night, then become light to moderate easterly Tuesday and Tuesday night. LONG TERM...Wednesday through Sunday...An upper level ridge will be centered over the area Tuesday, and will bring dry and warmer weather. As it rapidly moves to the southeast Tue night and Wed, we will become even warmer as southwest to southeast winds increase. A weak shortwave trough is forecast to move by to our north Wed into early Wed night, with excellent ensemble agreement on the timing and strength. Dry west to southwest flow aloft should then remain over the PacNW through Saturday, and precipitation chances are low (a small part of northeast Valley County gets up to 15% Fri-Sat, but otherwise the chance of precipitation is too small to mention in the forecast). Temperatures will cool after a very warm Wed (around 10 degrees above normal), with readings falling back down to near normal by Saturday. && .BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...None. OR...None. && $$ www.weather.gov/Boise Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSBoise www.twitter.com/NWSBoise DISCUSSION...JDS AVIATION.....JDS SHORT TERM...LC LONG TERM....MC