Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO
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267 FXUS65 KBOU 241126 AFDBOU Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO 526 AM MDT Tue Sep 24 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Warm and dry this upcoming week with no significant precipitation chances. - Record highs possible on Thursday. && .SHORT TERM /Through Tonight/... Issued at 134 AM MDT Tue Sep 24 2024 A weak cold front has passed through this morning, but it was a dry front. Satellite imagery shows quite a bit of high cloud cover across the state, with most of the mid-level cloud cover over the far northeast corner and into Nebraska/Kansas. Today will be quiet, as a large upper ridge shifts eastward into our region. We`ll be just east of the ridge axis today, with northerly flow expected through the day. With moisture decreasing through the day, clear skies are expected by this evening. Quiet weather will continue tonight with near/above normal lows likely. && .LONG TERM /Wednesday through Monday/... Issued at 134 AM MDT Tue Sep 24 2024 A long stretch of warm and dry conditions is expected. With light winds, there will be no hazardous weather concerns. An anomalously strong ridge aloft will move over Colorado on Wednesday. This ridge may break records as the forecast of -5 C at 500mb is equal to the daily max value on the SPC sounding climatology page for Denver. Furthermore, the ECMWF ensemble percentiles have portions of Colorado under the maximum 500mb temperatures for all hours in the database on Wednesday afternoon. This ridge will lead to sunny skies with light winds and warm temperatures. Highs are forecast to be in the mid 80s across much of the urban corridor and plains. On Thursday, a weak trough will move towards northern Colorado which will slightly weaken the ridge from record levels. There will still be strong subsident flow and there will be peak compressional warming in the low levels as the axis of a thermal ridge develops over northeast Colorado. With plenty of sunshine, all signs point to record or near-record breaking temperatures. The high temperature forecast was increased a couple of degrees as Denver is expected to reach 90. This would tie the daily record high which was most recently set in 2010. A very weak cold front associated with the aforementioned trough will move through Thursday night. This will lead to light northeast winds on Friday and high temperatures will be about 5 F cooler as a result. Ridging aloft will stay put over the Four Corners region through the weekend and into next week. Colorado should be far enough west to not have any impact from meandering trough over the southeast US and this feature will lead to very stagnant 500 mb flow. It means Colorado will be dry with warm temperatures that are well above normal for this time of year. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday/... Issued at 525 AM MDT Tue Sep 24 2024 VFR. Winds are light out of the west this morning and should eventually to a north or northeast this afternoon. Drainage flow is expected tonight. Wind speeds should remain under 10kt through the period. No ceiling or visibility concerns. && .BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Hiris LONG TERM...Danielson AVIATION...Hiris