Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX
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814 FXUS64 KBRO 210540 AAB AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Brownsville TX 1240 AM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Saturday night) Issued at 250 PM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024 The high pressure that has been parked in the middle layers of the atmosphere is allowing for similar conditions over Deep South Texas to persist. Slightly above average temperatures are expected throughout the forecast period, however, easterly flow is bringing in elevated dew points thereby increasing "feels like" temperatures to over 100 degrees F. Low temperatures tonight will be in the mid 70`s to low 80`s. The WPCs experimental Heat Risk product indicates a majority of Deep South Texas will remain in a moderate risk for heat. However, near coastal zones and northern Hidalgo county in a minor risk on Saturday, though Heat Advisory criteria are not expected as the heat indices are below Heat Advisory criteria. Isolated storms along the seabreeze will continue into early this evening and diminished by nightfall. As was the case today, forcing from the sea breeze will bring isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms across the area beginning mid-morning through Saturday afternoon. Swell and period are expected to increase starting Saturday night, however, rip risk will remain low in the short term. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through next Friday) Issued at 250 PM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024 The mid-level ridge over the region is expected to become more elongated by the start of the period. However, it will still be a big influence for the weather of Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley for most of the long term forecast. However, during the period, the mid-level ridge will be moving off towards the east. Chances of rain start to increase on Tuesday, resulting in isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms for the rest of the period as tropical moisture start to work its way into the region. However, the PWAT values are not very high, so odds are not very high for heavy rainfall at this time. As for temperatures, highs are expected be in the 90s for the period. Heat indices are expected to be under Heat Advisory Criteria and a Special Weather Statement is not likely to be needed either. Low temperatures are expected to be mostly in the 70s, with a few places getting into the lower 80s. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1232 AM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024 Light southeast winds with some passing low clouds prevail across Deep South Texas early this morning. MVFR ceilings may briefly develop at MFE/HRL shortly before sunrise, though confidence is too low to include in the TAFs at this time. Mostly VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours. Isolated seabreeze showers and thunderstorms are possible, but confidence is not high enough to include HRL/MFE in the TAF package. Light to moderate east to southeast winds are expected through the period. && .MARINE... Issued at 250 PM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024 Now through Saturday night...Favorable marine conditions continue along the Deep South Texas Coast. Light to moderate southeast to east southeast winds and light seas of 1 to 2 feet, increasing to 3 feet on Saturday night. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible into this evening and through Saturday. Wind and waves may be briefly higher during thunderstorms. Sunday through Next Friday...Light to moderate easterly to southeasterly winds and low to moderate seas will hold through most of the period. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible, and could result in locally elevated winds and seas where thunderstorms are present. Marine conditions could become more adverse to hazardous depending on the development of a potential tropical system. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 78 91 77 91 / 10 20 10 40 HARLINGEN 74 92 73 92 / 0 20 0 30 MCALLEN 78 96 77 96 / 0 10 0 20 RIO GRANDE CITY 76 95 74 94 / 0 10 0 20 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 81 87 81 87 / 10 10 10 30 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 77 90 76 89 / 10 10 10 30 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...69-HK LONG TERM....64-Katz AVIATION...63-KC