488
FXUS61 KBTV 270013
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
813 PM EDT Thu Sep 26 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Outside of some lingering showers or drizzle tonight, dry
weather will prevail through Monday accompanied by above average
temperatures. Patchy valley fog is possible on quiet, calm
nights. By midweek next week, a cold front may bring some
showers and cooler temperatures.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 756 PM EDT Thursday...Rain has moved southeastward and
out of our forecast area. Some low clouds have settled in across
parts of Northern New York and Vermont, and some fog has
already developed both in the clear areas and under the low
clouds. It`s a tricky forecast overnight as far as clouds and
fog goes, but we will likely have some lingering low clouds as
well as fog. Light drizzle is also possible. Previous discussion
follows.

Some low clouds are expected to linger in slow moving and
blocked flow, particularly in the valleys. Otherwise, mid and
high level clouds will clear out, and low cloud coverage could
be mixed. A shortwave will just skim the northeastern portion of
the forecast area, so there`s the potential for an isolated
shower in the Northeast Kingdom at some point in the night, but
chances of measurable precipitation are very low. More likely
will be soupy conditions with low clouds and drizzle.

Winds will go light to calm in the valleys with surface high
pressure building in from Ontario, so any clearer spots could
have fog developing, though gradient winds aloft could limit
this potential. Lows will be slightly above seasonal averages
tonight in the mid 40s to mid 50s. Friday looks to be a
pleasant, dry day with highs just a touch above climatological
normals and some breaks in the clouds likely. Friday night will
be much calmer with more potential for fog than tonight. Lows
will be slightly cooler in the mid 40s to lower 50s with more
efficient radiational cooling in clear spots.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 322 PM EDT Thursday...High pressure is projected to
remain over the North Country Saturday through early next week
with dry conditions. Temperatures will trend warmer rising 3-6
degrees above seasonal averages in the low 70s on Saturday and
cooling into the mid/upper 40s to low 50s Saturday night. This
high should keep the future remnants of Helene shunted well
southwest towards the Ohio River Valley.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 322 PM EDT Thursday...Sunday and Monday are projected to
be the warmest days heading into the extended forecast with high
pressure continuing with southerly flow increasing as a trough
approaches the region; temperatures likely in the 70s. Model
consensus begins to diverge Tuesday through Thursday on timing
of the approaching wave and on how much moisture becomes
entrained in southerly flow off the future remnants of Helene.
While rain is becoming increasingly likely Tuesday into
Wednesday, the eventual transition and continued modification of
Helene into an post tropical system will likely limit what
moisture can move northward ahead of the approaching front;
model projections keep it cut off from upper level flow.
Therefore, current expectations are that rain will be more
associated with forcing from the front rather than having
tropical characteristic. This front should push through with its
parent low lifting northward with high temperatures returning
to around seasonal averages in the 60s and lows in the 40s. Rain
chances are favored to decrease late next week with more
limited post-frontal showers lingering through Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Through 00Z Saturday...A mixture of VFR, MVFR and LIFR
conditions are in place across the forecast area this evening in
wake of moderate rainfall that fell across the region the past
two days. Low clouds are lingering, particularly across Vermont,
in slow moving and blocked flow, resulting in some drizzle and
IFR potential overnight tonight. Best chances of drizzle and low
clouds producing IFR conditions will be at EFK, BTV, and MPV,
though it is possible at any site, including RUT. SLK is most
likely of the sites to have enough clear skies following rain to
produce true IFR fog. Overall, best timing for IFR conditions
tonight will be 06Z-12Z Friday, though drizzle and low clouds
could start slightly earlier, perhaps around 03Z or 04Z Friday.
Winds will generally be light through the period.

Outlook...

Friday Night: VFR. Patchy BR.
Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Storm
NEAR TERM...Neiles/Storm
SHORT TERM...Boyd
LONG TERM...Boyd
AVIATION...Neiles/Storm