Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT
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473 FXUS61 KBTV 260015 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 815 PM EDT Wed Sep 25 2024 .SYNOPSIS... After a day of showery weather, more widespread precipitation will move through later tonight into Thursday, with drier weather returning for the weekend. After today, temperatures will be rather seasonable for the remainder of the period. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... As of 815 PM EDT Wednesday...Widespread showers, and localized rumbles of thunder based on lightning detection observations over the last half hour, will continue overspreading northeastern New York and Vermont. This slug of rain has been producing about 1/3 of an inch of rain in three hours across a portion of the southern Adirondacks. With some increasing low level convergence in the Champlain Valley, have bumped up rainfall amounts through 2 AM in this area. Otherwise, PoPs were massaged to also match radar trends better but no big changes were needed. Previous Discussion... After a round of showers this morning that broke the dry stretch across the region, a lull in precipitation can be seen this afternoon. The upper trough centered over Ontario will continue to dig into the Great Lakes, before closing off and moving eastward along the international border. This feature, along with more favorable moisture and dynamics will bring more widespread showers to the region this evening, but especially during the overnight hours. A frontal boundary moving through the region will be the driving feature for showers on Thursday. With PWAT values near 1.5 inches, some heavier downpours will be possible during the day tomorrow. Expected rainfall totals will generally be 1-2 inches with some locally higher amounts in spots that see several rounds of heavier showers. Some ponding in poor drainage areas may be possible, but the rainfall amounts should be quiet manageable given the dry antecedent conditions. Precipitation will come to an end Thursday night in the wake of the cold front as drier air quickly moves in, although some lingering moisture may be enough for a few isolated showers given the proximity to the upper low. In addition to the precipitation, some breezy conditions can be expected this evening and possibly overnight hours, especially with the current lull in precipitation. A Lake Wind Advisory has been issued for Lake Champlain for this evening and the overnight hours. As more widespread rainfall begins to move in, the mixing potential will become more limited, and by tomorrow the winds will abate and becoming more westerly behind the cold front. Temperatures tonight will be mild with the precipitation and overcast skies, with lows generally in the 50s. Tomorrow will be a few degrees warmer than today for most of the forecast area with temperatures in the 60s to even some low 70s in the St. Lawrence Valley, although eastern Vermont will remain cool again in the upper 50s and lower 60s. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/... As of 330 PM EDT Wednesday...As low pressure pulls away into Atlantic Canada Friday, some wrap around moisture and northwesterly flow could produce a few light, insignificant showers in the Northeast Kingdom. Have in PoPs up to 15-25%. Otherwise, dry weather with potential lingering low clouds are expected throughout the day. Highs are expected to increase slightly from Thursday into the mid 60s to lower 70s, still quite close to seasonal averages. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 330 PM EDT Wednesday...High pressure is expected to build into the region this weekend into early next week. This will allow temperatures to sit slightly above climatological normals through Tuesday with highs in the upper 60s to mid 70s and lows in the 40s to mid 50s. Dry weather will also be the theme under high pressure through about Tuesday. Sunday looks to be the warmest and sunniest day of the period. Each night under the high pressure and light winds, there is the potential for some patchy valley fog, but this could depend on each night`s sky cover. Models are coming into better agreement on a cold front producing our next round of precipitation on or around Tuesday night (30-50% chance of rainfall), though the potential for a slower arrival of rain exists with some chances on Wednesday (20-40% chance of rainfall). Ensembles are indicating there is still a relatively low chance of 24 hour precip totals over a half an inch. This cold front will also drop temperatures somewhat dramatically with highs Wednesday in the upper 50s to lower 60s and lows Wednesday night potentially in the mid 30s to upper 40s. && .AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Through 00Z Friday...Somewhat variable flight conditions are expected with a mix of mainly VFR and MVFR conditions across terminals. Widespread showers at the start of the period will mainly affect PBG/BTV/RUT, and expand northeastward to cover MPV and EFK in the 02Z to 04Z period. MVFR visibilities are expected with this rainfall. Expect MVFR ceilings at RUT/EFK/MPV to persist, although heights may fall below 1000 feet at MPV after 02Z, with greatest chances of IFR conditions in the 09Z to 14Z period. Meanwhile, VFR/MVFR conditions at SLK for much of the period will trend towards IFR in the 12Z to 18Z period as flow becomes more southwesterly/upslope. Surface winds across the region will generally be from the south/southeast between 6 to 12 kts, with rare gusts up to 20 knots due to stable conditions near the ground. LLWS will be a concern at northern New York terminals early in the period, expanding eastward into the remainder of the terminals between 06Z and 10Z, before diminishing by 18Z. Outlook... Thursday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA. Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Friday Night: VFR. Patchy BR. Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Sunday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. NO SIG WX. Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX. && .MARINE... A Lake Wind Advisory is in effect for this evening into early tomorrow morning with strong south to southeasterly winds between 15 to 25 knots expected, with wave heights between 3-5 feet expected on the broad waters. Winds will begin to abate tomorrow, becoming more westerly between 10 to 15 knots. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Kremer NEAR TERM...Kremer/Kutikoff SHORT TERM...Storm LONG TERM...Storm AVIATION...Kremer/Kutikoff MARINE...