967
FXUS61 KBTV 021730
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
130 PM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Anther warm and dry day is on tap for the North Country with high
temperatures in the 80s expected. The warming trend will continue
through Tuesday when some places may warm into the upper 80s. There
is increasing confidence that we will see widespread rainfall on
Thursday which is much needed given the recent dry spell.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 1229 PM EDT Sunday... High clouds are spreading into the
region from the west, but they are encountering a very dry
airmass so they are struggling to stay together. This is
causing there to be a decent amount of sunshine across the
region, even in northern New York, so had to adjust the clouds
down a little. The rain showers over western new York and Lake
Ontario are falling apart before they reach the St. lawrence
Valley and this will continue for the rest of today. Previous
Discussion Follows...


Previous Discussion...Another seasonably warm day with highs in
the 80s is expected across the region today. We should see
increasingly high clouds this morning but will have minimal impact
on our weather today. Dewpoints once again are expected to tank this
afternoon as we mix deeply to 6000 to 7000 ft. Afternoon RH values
are expected to drop into the low to mid 20s which will feel nice as
any noticeable humidity stays shunted well to the south. Winds will
likely be weaker today as the upper level ridge axis remains
overhead with little wind to speak of within the mixed layer. Light
and variable winds may gust up to 10 mph from the west/northwest
this afternoon but shouldn`t be much stronger than that. Increasing
cloud cover through the evening hours tonight should help stunt
radiational cooling tonight leading to temperatures only dropping
into the lower 50s to lower 60s; noticeably warmer than previous
nights. Monday will be a degree or two warmer for most locations
with decreasing clouds expected during the afternoon hours. With the
main ridge axis beginning to shift slightly eastward, some high-res
guidance is depicting a rogue shower or two on Monday. We have
10-15% PoPs in the forecast for this but the general thinking is
that subsidence and dry low level air should keep shower activity at
bay for the time being.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 326 AM EDT Sunday...The axis of a mid/upper lvl ridge wl
be directly overhead during this timeframe, resulting in dry
conditions and above normal temps. Progged 925mb temps are btwn
19-21C, combined with good mixing and recent dry wx, we should
over perform in the temp department on Tues, especially urban
areas. I have trended toward the 75th percentile NBM temps for
highs on Tues, resulting in near 80F mtns towns to mid 80s
CPV/lower CT River Valley. Given the dry air mass in place,
still anticipating comfortable overnight lows in the upper 40s
to near 60F on Tues night.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 326 AM EDT Sunday...Upper lvl pattern continues to show a
large omega type block acrs the northern tier conus with trof
over northern Plains, ridge acrs the ne conus and another trof
over the North Atlantic. This synoptic scale setup typically
takes a little time to breakdown, which modeling sometimes does
too quickly, so we have continued to delay the highest pops
until Thursday. For Weds, ridge is still in place with very weak
upper lvl forcing, but some modest instability is present with
sfc based CAPE values in the 400-800 J/kg range, so a pop up
shower or two is possible acrs the trrn on Weds aftn. Overall,
coverage wl be limited due to the lack of forcing and limited
deep layer moisture. As deep and closed mid/upper lvl trof
slowly works eastward, better dynamics arrive along with
favorable moisture advection, increasing the potential for
showers. Given the good model agreement, our confidence is
highest for measurable precip late Weds night into Thurs acrs
our cwa, with the probability increasing for a widespread
wetting rainfall during this time period. As 2 to 3 std below
normal heights develop acrs our cwa for late week associated
with anomalously strong closed cyclonic circulation an
unsettled and cooler pattern is likely, especially Friday into
next week. Cool air aloft combined with sfc heating creates some
weak instability and results in scattered daily showers, with
highest probability of precip acrs the higher trrn for Friday
and Saturday. Shower activity should decrease in areal coverage
during the nighttime hours, with less instability. Progged 925mb
temps cool back into the 10-12C by Friday/Saturday, supporting
highs mid 60s to mid 70s and lows mid 50s to near 60F.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Through 18Z Monday...All terminals are VFR and they should remain
that way through the entire TAF period. Fog is not expected
overnight, even at SLK. Winds will be light and variable through
tonight, before turning northerly during the day tomorrow, though
they will stay relatively light. LLWS is not a concern.

Outlook...

Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Wednesday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Thursday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Thursday Night: VFR/MVFR conditions possible. Chance SHRA.
Friday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Chance SHRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Clay
NEAR TERM...Clay/Myskowski
SHORT TERM...Taber
LONG TERM...Taber
AVIATION...Myskowski