560
FXUS65 KBYZ 270109
AFDBYZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Billings MT
709 PM MDT Thu Sep 26 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...
- Becoming breezy behind a cold front today.

- Hot, dry, and windy conditions Sunday leading to fire weather
  concerns over areas that did not see beneficial rain last week.

- Daily record high temperatures possible Sunday (see table in
  long term discussion for more information).

- Cooler conditions return Monday.
&&

.UPDATE...

With rising humidities and decreasing winds, the Red Flag Warning
was expired this evening. No other changes to the forecast. Vertz

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Through Friday night...

We have seen post-frontal wind gusts increase over the region, and
as of 18z a shift to the W-NW has occurred thru far southeast MT.
a Red Flag Warning continues until 6pm for far southeast MT and
eastern Sheridan County, and in this area temps have reached 90+
degrees w/ RHs in the teens. After doing 102F yesterday, Sheridan
has in fact already reached 94F (which should be the high for the
day). The mixed winds will decrease quickly w/ sunset and remain
light tonight and Friday.

Satellite imagery shows a zonal shortwave moving into eastern MT.
The air mass is quite dry and even w/ a period of synoptic scale
ascent we are seeing only a few mid & high clouds, including
patches of thin high-based cumulus underneath the trof axis. No
chance of precip today. Behind the wave we will see the ridge
rebound and remain in place, along with a dry air mass, through
Friday night. Temperatures will remain quite a bit warmer than
normal. Look for highs tomorrow mostly in the 80s, and close to
90F in the south at places like Sheridan & Broadus.

JKL


Saturday through Thursday...

Saturday will be warm and dry with generally light winds under
mostly clear to clear skies. Sunday will be even warmer ahead of a
mostly dry cold front with temperatures forecast to climb 10 to
20 or more degrees above normal. With the heat on Sunday, there is
the potential for daily record high temperatures to be set at our
climate sites (see table below). As mentioned above, a mostly dry
cold front (with only a low, 15% or less, chance of rain north of
Billings during the evening Sunday) will cross through the region
Sunday afternoon into Sunday night. Breezy conditions are
anticipate ahead of, along, and behind the front Sunday through
Monday. Because of the combination of hot temperatures, breezy
winds, and a wind shift with the front, fire weather concerns
exist for Sunday across areas where beneficial rain did not occur
with the last system. While Monday will still be breezy, much
cooler temperatures (high chance for temperatures to remain below
70F) and higher relative humidity values will limit the fire
weather threat. Tuesday looks to be a quite day as shortwave
ridging moves through aloft. By Wendesday into Thursday, another
cold front may drop through the region allowing breezy conditions
to return with near normal temperatures. With this, a low chance
of light precipitation returns to the region (less than 15%).
However, uncertainty remains between ensemble members on how the
middle to end of next week will play out. Arends

LOCATION | CURRENT RECORD | PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDANCE

Sheridan, WY   | 91 (1989) | 95%
Baker, MT      | 89 (2022) | 85%
Billings, MT   | 89 (1989) | 80%
Livingston, MT | 89 (1967) | 50%
Miles City, MT | 94 (1989) | 45%

&&

.AVIATION...


Winds will remain light through the period. VFR will prevail. TS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    Fri     Sat     Sun     Mon     Tue     Wed     Thu
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 050/084 053/083 054/091 047/062 039/074 048/069 039/063
    00/U    00/U    00/U    10/U    00/U    00/B    10/B
LVM 046/084 047/085 052/088 039/064 036/077 045/070 034/065
    00/U    00/U    00/N    10/U    00/U    00/U    11/B
HDN 047/085 049/086 050/094 046/063 037/076 044/070 037/064
    00/U    00/U    00/U    10/U    00/U    00/B    10/U
MLS 048/085 051/087 055/092 050/061 038/072 046/069 039/063
    00/U    00/U    00/U    10/U    00/U    00/U    10/U
4BQ 049/087 051/090 059/095 050/063 038/073 047/073 039/066
    00/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    10/U
BHK 044/086 049/088 055/092 046/063 034/071 043/069 036/063
    00/U    00/U    00/U    00/N    00/U    00/U    10/U
SHR 046/088 048/090 052/095 045/063 035/076 043/073 036/065
    00/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    10/U

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
WY...None.

&&

$$
weather.gov/billings