087
FXUS62 KCAE 020752
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
352 AM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Moisture continues to increase over the region through early to
mid next week. This will lead to isolated to scattered
convection mainly in the afternoons and evenings. A cold front
approaches the Southeast late next week leading to increasing
rain chances. Temperatures should rise to near normal values
over the next few days.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Satellite imagery shows that clouds have spread across almost
the entire forecast area save for a few spots in the eastern
Midlands. Upper air analysis indicates that the axis of a
shortwave trough is moving through Tennessee and Georgia early
this morning with another shortwave behind it near the Alabama
and Mississippi border. Radar is showing some rain showers
across the Southeast, though not sure exactly how much of this
activity is hitting the ground. Have only seen a couple of
stations in east central Georgia reporting precip at the ground.

Today and Tonight: Upper shortwaves are expected to continue
translating eastward through the day, bringing the chances for
showers and potentially thunderstorms along with them. As a
result, we should see isolated to scattered showers and storms
peaking in coverage this afternoon into early evening time frame
before diminishing overnight. The highest coverage of activity
is favored for the western Midlands and Upper CSRA. There does
not appear to be much of a severe threat today with any storms
that form as both instability and especially spear are forecast
to be lacking. For example, the HREF mean surface based CAPE is
around 500 J/kg with around 15 kts of 0-6 km shear. As daytime
heating wanes overnight, the chances for precipitation decrease
as well. Temperatures are forecast to be similar, or just a tad
cooler than yesterday, with highs in the lower 80s for most.
Overnight lows are likely to remain in the mid 60s once again.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Monday and Monday night...Long wave upper trough will extend
from the Mid Atlantic south through the Carolinas early in the
day then shift to the coast in the afternoon. The Bermuda high
will be offshore with weak south- westerly flow across the area.
The moisture appears to decrease somewhat through the day with
the higher precipitable water shifting to the east. Models
suggest relatively weak to moderate instability instability in
the afternoon as temperatures rise into the mid to upper 80s
with warm advection. Relatively steep low to mid level lapse
rates noted with inverted V sounding profile. Mid level lapse
rates are weak and there may be a developing cap in the
afternoon as trough moves toward the coast. The ECMWF does show
a short wave moving through the area and the GEM shows a weaker
one. The lift appears focused in the Pee Dee. Perhaps a sea
breeze front may move inland during the afternoon to provide
lift. The CAMS show limited convective coverage...i.e., widely
scattered. NBM focus pops in the east. Cut pops back slightly
from NBM, but expect some isolated showers in the morning then
scattered showers/thunderstorms mainly in the afternoon mainly
in the east. Any convection should diminish quickly in the early
eventing. Lows near normal values in the mid to upper 60s.

Tuesday and Tuesday night...Mid level ridge appears stronger
Tuesday and instability appears weaker than Monday although low
to mid level lapse rates appear steep given temperatures
continue to climb to around 90 degrees with continued warm
advection. Think there may be a strong cap. Moisture decreases
as well with precipitable water down to 1.3 inches. Trigger
lacking although another sea breeze front is possible. Cut pops
to slight chance most areas in the afternoon with chance along
the 95 corridor. Low temps a little warmer, mainly upper 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Ensemble models have been consistent. Upper level ridge flattens
early in the period and shifts east. Moisture increases again
across the region especially by Thursday with models indicating
high probability of values > 1.5 inches, possibly near 2 inches.
Deep upper low over south central Canada will be building
southeast with generally northwest flow across the southeast.
Embedded short wave troughs will be moving through the area as
trough develops in the southeast. At the surface, a cold front
is expected from the Ohio Valley southwest to the mid
Mississippi valley in the day Thursday. The front will be moving
toward the southeast late week, moving into the area Friday.
Scattered convection expected Wednesday and Thursday. Ensembles
indicating chance of moderate instability with increasing
triggers for thunderstorms. Deep layer shear becomes moderately
strong by Thursday as the front approaches from the northwest.
Stronger lift possible with diffluent flow aloft. So, at this
time marginal severe threat. Drier air moving in by Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR conditions expected through the TAF period.

Mid-level clouds are currently spreading across the region from
the southwest. Expect this trend to continue through the
overnight hours. Radar is picking up on activity near the
DNL/AGS terminals as of this update; however, the likelihood of
any of the precipitation reaching the ground is minimal, so have
kept it out of the TAFs. That said a rogue light shower cannot
be completely ruled out through about 09z. Shortly after sunrise
(~13z), expect a cumulus field in the 5-6 kft range to develop
over the region. Scattered showers and isolated storms remain
anticipated, the amount of coverage over and around the
terminals remains highly uncertain. Thus, have kept mention of
showers and storms out of the TAFs for the time being. Ceilings
are expected to lift late in the period once again. Generally
south to southeasterly winds of less than 10 kts are expected
through the TAF period. Temperatures should be above normal,
even by Saturday with dry downslope flow and cold advection
mainly north of the area after frontal passage.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Isolated afternoon and evening
showers and thunderstorms Monday through Thursday with
intermittent CIG/VSBY restrictions possible.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$