518
FXUS62 KCAE 030008
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
808 PM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Moisture increases across the Southeast through mid week. This
will support isolated to scattered convection mainly in the
afternoons and evenings. A cold front will approach the region
late in the week leading to increasing rain chances and a chance
for severe weather. Temperatures will be near or above normal
through the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
Satellite imagery shows a embedded short wave moving into the
northern Midlands with a few thunderstorms developing in the
Union, York and Chester County area moving eastward with
additional showers extending into northern Aiken County.
Convection continues to fight sunset and loss of heating however
with the dynamics expect the showers to continue over the next
couple of hours as they move to the northeast. Rainfall amounts
will generally be light as convection is fairly low topped with
most struggling to reach 20 kft. By midnight expect most of the
convection to have dissipated with a few showers remaining where
boundaries collide. Clouds will gradually diminish during the
early morning hours however most locations will remain partly to
mostly cloudy through daybreak. Overnight lows will be in the
mid 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure offshore will promote weak southerly flow across
the region. As an upper trough moves offshore through the early
portion of the day, the deeper moisture appears to shift east of
the forecast area. However PWAT values should still be around
1.5 inches supporting afternoon convection. Southerly or SE low
level flow along the coast will allow a sea-breeze boundary to
move inland through the day which may serve as the trigger for
convection in eastern portions of the forecast area. Daytime
heating will allow the airmass to become conditionally unstable
with sbCAPE values likely between 750 to 1500 J/kg. The threat
of severe weather is low however. CAPE profiles are tall and
skinny with low LI values indicating limited updraft strength.
Warm air aloft moves into the area during the evening working to
suppress convection along with loss of heating. Lows near
normal values in the mid to upper 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Upper level ridging will be over the region from Tuesday into
early Wednesday. This will work to induce a mid-level capping
inversion hindering convective development. Convection on
Tuesday should remain isolated to widely scattered despite a
seasonal warm, moist airmass.

Global ensemble mean 500mb heights flatten the ridge mid-week
as an upper trough digs into the Upper Midwest. SW flow over the
Southeast strengthens in response pushing PWAT values above 1.5
inches to possibly near 2 inches. At the surface, a cold front
is expected to drop from the Ohio Valley southwest into the
Mississippi valley on Thursday. Warm, moist advection ahead of
the front will increase rainfall chances mid to late week when
the front moves through the area. Above normal moisture,
increased shear and moderate instability with shortwave activity
poses some risk for severe weather from Wednesday to Friday.
Drier air will move into the region behind the front for the end
of the long term, but temperatures won`t cool much with highs
still around normal.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR conditions expected through the TAF period.

A few showers continue this evening and may move over the
Columbia terminals. Radar observations as of 23z show any
showers remain light and thunder is not expected so no
operational impacts expected at the terminals as a result of
these showers. Winds out of the SSE between 5 and 10 knots
decreasing overnight then shifting out of the SSW Monday around
5 knots. Ceilings lowering Monday but high confidence in
remaining VFR.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Isolated afternoon and evening
showers and thunderstorms through Friday with intermittent
CIG/VSBY restrictions possible.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$