941
FXUS61 KCLE 010544
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
144 AM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will drift east of the area tonight into Saturday
and expect weak low pressure to cross the region late Saturday
into Sunday. High pressure will briefly return by Sunday evening
before a warm front lifts north across the forecast area Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
930 PM Update...
No changes were needed with this update.

630 PM Update...
Minor adjustments were made to the temperatures over the next
couple hours as they are cooling across western counties faster
than previously forecast. The overnight low remains unchanged
and there were no additional edits needed with this update.

Previous Discussion...
High pressure will drift east of the area over the next 24 hours
with a ridge axis pushing east of the CWA Saturday morning. Dry
weather will continue through tonight and there will still be decent
radiational cooling with clear skies and light winds, but some
higher clouds may be building in from the west and the beginnings of
warm air advection on the back side of the high/ridge axis may
prevent temps from getting too low tonight. Overnight lows will be
in the mid 40s lower 50s, but locations in the higher elevations of
NE OH and NW PA will likely dip into the lower 40s. Can`t rule out
isolated spots dipping into the upper 30s.

Warm air advection will allow both temperatures and moisture to
increase Saturday. Highs will climb into the upper 70s to lower 80s
with dew points reaching the mid to upper 50s in western zones by
Saturday evening. An upper shortwave trough and weak surface low
will approach from the west throughout the day Saturday, resulting
in increasing high clouds. Scattered showers arrive in western zones
at around 00Z/8 PM Saturday evening before reaching the I-77
corridor by early Sunday morning. Could see a scenario where there`s
virga and very little precip reaching the surface at the onset since
forecast soundings indicate low level dry air and dew point
depressions of about 15 to 20 degrees when the precip moves in. The
thunder threat remains low, but maintained slight chances west of I-
71 due to a small amount of instability overnight. Overnight lows
will be in the upper 50s to lower 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Upper level trough will swing a shortwave and associated weak
surface low across the Great Lakes region through the day on
Sunday. Expect for some showers and isolated thunderstorms during
Sunday afternoon along and east of I-71. The highest QPF amounts
will remain isolated south of US-30 on Sunday. Precipitation chances
will exit from west to east Sunday evening as a low to mid level
ridge briefly builds overhead. Mostly dry weather is expected on
Monday under the ridge and ahead of our next system late Monday
night into Tuesday.

Highs will be in the low to mid 70s west of I-71 and in the upper
60s across Northeast Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania on Sunday.
Overnight lows will settle in the upper 50s Sunday night. Warmer on
Monday with highs in the low to mid 80s across the region and
overnight lows in the low 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
We`ll have a rather warm and moist environment Tuesday and Wednesday
under southerly flow with high temperatures in the low to mid 80s
and dew points in the low to mid 60s. Expect for unsettled weather
to persist through the long term period with scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms. Best forcing comes Wednesday as a deep upper
trough and surface cold front will swing eastward across the region.
Will continue to keep any eye on the potential for severe weather on
Wednesday with some uncertainty remaining on the timing of the
frontal passage. Showers and storms will persist through Friday as
we remain under the control of a deep upper level trough.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z Saturday THROUGH Wednesday/...
VFR through most of the day today. A weak area of low pressure
will begin spreading rain into TOL and FDY this evening,
approaching MFD near the end of the TAF period and arriving at
CLE after 6z Sunday as reflected in their 30 hour TAF. Dry low-
levels ahead of the rain will likely result in ceilings only
slowly lowering. Expect some non-VFR by later tonight into early
Sunday due to lower ceilings and perhaps some periods of reduced
visibility in steadier rain, though only begin hinting at it at
TOL, FDY, and CLE near the end of their TAFs.

Light and variable winds will shift out of the south-southeast
at 6 to 12 knots today. A lake breeze will likely flip winds
onshore for a few hours at ERI this afternoon. Currently think
the lake breeze won`t quite reach CLE though it will be close.

Outlook...Some non-VFR likely spreads east late tonight into
Sunday due to showers and lower ceilings before gradual
improvement through Sunday afternoon. Thunderstorms and
associated non-VFR possible at times Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Quiet marine conditions through the next few days with high pressure
gradually building to the east through the start of the weekend. A
weak low will enter the region late Saturday through Sunday before
high pressure briefly returns on Sunday night and Monday. Mostly
light and variable flow through the the next few days. Southerly
winds less than 10 knots will be favored on Saturday and Tuesday
with no concerns for any marine headlines.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Maines
NEAR TERM...Campbell/Maines
SHORT TERM...Iverson
LONG TERM...Iverson
AVIATION...Sullivan
MARINE...Iverson