Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH
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897 FXUS61 KCLE 250649 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 249 AM EDT Wed Sep 25 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure moves northeast across the Great Lakes region through Thursday and will drag a weak cold front across the area late Wednesday into early Thursday. High pressure enters from the northwest on Thursday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... 920 PM Update... Convective activity on the wane overall across the CWA, but will not necessarily be the end to it for essentially I-71 and east. Could see some refiring in this area in the next few hours, ramping up slightly towards morning. Cold front will be trying to track through, but will get held up by small waves of low pressure along it, taking well into Wednesday before it is through the region. Edited POPs overnight into the late morning hours and made minor adjustments to the overnight lows. Previous Discussion... Surface warm front continues lift across the region as the parent low pressure moves northeastward across Lower Michigan this evening. Shower and thunderstorm coverage has decreased for the time being, however, we`re beginning to see some redevelopment of showers and storms across Northern Indiana. Can`t rule out strong to severe thunderstorms, especially across the I-75 corridor, as current mesoanalysis indicates a favorable environment with MLCAPE values of 1000+ J/kg coupled with bulk shear magnitudes of 30-35 kts. As such, portions of Northwest Ohio remain under a Marginal Risk (Level 1/5) for Severe Weather through this evening. Showers and thunderstorms will diminish in coverage and intensity later this evening as the surface low continues to lift north. Low stratus/patchy fog will move overhead tonight given recent rainfall/lingering low level moisture and calm winds. Upper level trough will continue to dig eastward through Wednesday with lingering shower and thunderstorm chances east of I-71 through Wednesday night. Overnight lows tonight will generally settle in the low 60s. Slightly warmer Wednesday afternoon with highs in the mid 70s. Cold front will begin to cross the region Wednesday night into Thursday morning which will allow for lows to dip into the upper 50s in NW Ohio and lower 60s elsewhere. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... There will be some lingering post-frontal showers Thursday morning in NE OH and NW PA but will be ending by mid-day. During the day Thursday, high pressure will build in ushering in dry weather for the next 24-36 hours. On Friday, an upper level low will interact with Tropical Storm Helene as it moves inland from the Gulf Coast. This will bring moisture northward from as the storm wraps around the upper level low. There is uncertainty of how far north the moisture will be as the system will stall out in the Tennessee/Ohio River Valleys. With that, PoPs will be similar to previous forecasts with 40 percent in the southwestern counties and around 30 percent for the northeast counties for Friday evening. Highs will generally be in the high 70s for Thursday and Friday and lows in the upper 50s, low 60s each night. The high temperatures may be limited depending on if there are any showers in the southern counties for Friday. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Going into Saturday the upper level low across the mid-Mississippi River Valley will start to meander northeastward into the Ohio River Valley region. There is still uncertainty on the location and strength of the system as it will be slow moving, but will continue to influence the weather for the region through the weekend. As a result, expect dreary weather into the beginning of next week with overcast skies, low-end chance of PoPs, and a few thunderstorms. Temperatures will trend towards normal for the area, with highs in the mid to upper 70s on Saturday and low 70s by Tuesday. Lows will follow a similar pattern, being in the low 60s, upper 50s on Saturday and by Tuesday everyone will be in the mid 50s. && .AVIATION /06Z Wednesday THROUGH Sunday/... Residual MVFR ceilings are present in central and eastern Ohio this morning. These are generally shifting east and giving way to VFR or even some clearing conditions. A cold front over Northwest Ohio will slide east slowly and IFR ceilings will enter the region. Some scattered showers will develop ahead of the front again late this morning into early afternoon and could impact KCAK, KYNG, and KERI. The front will continue east through the airspace and ceilings will lift to VFR during the end of the TAF period. Winds will be generally southerly until the frontal passage where there will be a shift to the southwest and then west. Outlook...Strong northeast winds are expected across the region on Friday. Non-VFR may return in showers and thunderstorms this weekend. && .MARINE... A Small Craft Advisory will be in effect from 21Z Tuesday to 12Z Wednesday morning due to downsloping winds in the eastern basin of Lake Erie. Winds will be out of the southeast at 15 to 25 knots overnight before subsiding Wednesday morning as winds shift to be more southwesterly at 10 to 15 knots. A cold front will move across the lake Wednesday afternoon and the winds with veer to be out of the northwest, but with a weaker pressure gradient, will only be 5 to 10 knots. Through the day on Thursday, the winds will shift out of the northeast as high pressure builds into the region. The pressure gradient will then tighten as Tropical Storm Helene moves northward from the Gulf Coast during the day on Friday. Winds will be east-northeasterly and increase to 15 to 25 knots for most of the central and western basins of Lake Erie and therefore, a strong chance for a Small Craft Advisory to be needed for Friday into Saturday. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for LEZ148- 149. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Iverson NEAR TERM...Iverson/26 SHORT TERM...Kennedy LONG TERM...Kennedy AVIATION...Sefcovic MARINE...Kennedy