Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH
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392 FXUS61 KCLE 252345 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 745 PM EDT Wed Sep 25 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A weak cold front continues to meander across the area this afternoon and will depart to the east by Thursday morning. High pressure will build over the area for Thursday before the remnant low pressure of Helene enters the Ohio Valley on Friday which will persist through the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... A weak cold front continues to traverse the area this afternoon, producing a line of showers from Ashtabula County southwest to Holmes/Knox Counties. This line has developed along a moisture convergence boundary with MUCAPE values generally 1000 J/kg or less and bulk shear values 20-30 knots. This has allowed for a few rumbles of thunder, but overall should limit the potential for anything to become organized and severe. These showers will continue to slowly diminish from west to east into tonight before the cold front finally pushes east Thursday morning. As high pressure builds behind the front tonight, there is a potential for fog development along and east of I71, especially in areas that saw precipitation today. Winds will weaken to light and variable overnight, although the clouds may act to reduce cooling and limit the true extent of fog. Will definitely have to continue to monitor the potential into the overnight hours as any fog that does develop will have the potential to impact the morning commute. By Thursday morning, high pressure will establish itself over the area and allow for conditions to dry out. Unfortunately, increased moisture will continue to advect across the area as remnants of Helene move north towards the Ohio River Valley which will keep mostly cloudy skies across the area through Thursday night. High temperatures on Thursday will remain mild in the low to mid 70s. Overnight lows will drop into the upper 50s to low 60s. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... The upper level trough is expected to evolve into a closed low over the Mid Mississippi Valley on Thursday. In addition, the remnants of Helene and the associated deep circulation will drift inland and possibly be absorbed into an upper low on Friday and over the weekend. A moisture axis associated the remnant of Helene will rotate north across northern Ohio and western Pennsylvania on Friday. The remnant low and the upper level may become vertically stacked over the Mid Mississippi and SW Ohio Valley over the weekend. First surge of moisture will yield an increase in precipitable water from 1.6 to 1.9 inches Friday afternoon, a pulling back down 1.2 to 1.5 on Saturday, and then an increase back up to 1.6 to 1.7 inches on Sunday. Will not try to parse out coverage of rain in this package. We would not be surprised to see an increase in rain chances on Friday in later forecast packages. All in all, rain chances are possible of Friday and Saturday including overnight. However, precip coverage will probably be higher during peak diurnal heating. The pressure gradient will tighten considerably Friday between the high to the northeast and low southwest. This feature will yield in breezy northeast winds to 25 to 30 mph downwind from Lake Erie. Highs will generally be in the 70s Friday and Saturday and a few spots may touch 80 degrees across central Ohio on Saturday. Ample moisture in air will hamper temps from fluctuating and lows will remain around 60s. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... The upper low will finally begin lift east across the Ohio Valley to the Mid Atlantic by Monday. There`s still some uncertainty in how quickly the low exits and whether or not a ridge builds over the region so maintained rain chances Sunday through early Tuesday. A new sharp trough will track across the northern tier of the Plains Monday into Tuesday. The associated trough axis is expected to sweep across the Great Lakes on Tuesday and finally scour the remaining moisture. An associated cold front is expected to sweep through the area on Tuesday. This feature will yield the coolest night of the forecast with Wednesday morning lows in the 40s. && .AVIATION /00Z Thursday THROUGH Monday/... Cold front continues to be slow to move through the area, but should do so eventually tonight. Post frontal low level moisture brings MVFR/IFR ceilings into the fold for MFD/CLE and terminals east after 12Z Thursday. High pressure influences Thursday will be brief. Mid/high level moisture will begin streaming in from the south with the tropical system moving northward in the form of clouds, but not expecting precipitation until the Friday time frame. Winds come around to the northeast less than 10kts Thursday. Outlook...Strong northeast winds are expected across the region on Friday. Non-VFR may return in showers and thunderstorms this weekend. && .MARINE... A cold front will finally push through Lake Erie overnight. Winds will become westerly this evening and northwest to north 5 to 10 knots by Thursday morning. Winds will continue to veer to the northeast by midday Thursday as high pressure builds over Lake Erie. In addition, winds will strengthen to 10 to 20 knots as the remnants of Helene move inland on Thursday night. Winds may peak at 20 to 25 knots Friday afternoon into Friday evening. Can not rule out winds reaching as high as 30 knots. Therefore Small Craft Advisories are likely for Friday morning through late Friday night or Saturday morning. Northeast winds diminish to to 10 to 15 knots with winds near 20 knots likely in the open waters of the central basin. It will probably remain choppy through Saturday. East/northeast winds 10 to 15 knots will persist through Sunday and finally collapsing on Monday with easterly winds 10 knots or less. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Campbell NEAR TERM...Campbell SHORT TERM...FZ LONG TERM...FZ AVIATION...26 MARINE...FZ