Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
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203 FXUS64 KCRP 250849 AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 349 AM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Thursday) Issued at 344 AM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024 The short term is continuing to remain on track from the previous forecast. A mid to upper level trough is expected to continue digging to south as it progresses eastwards. This will send a cold front through the region this evening providing enough lift for a low chance of showers and thunderstorms similar to what we seen yesterday. Behind this front, we will dry out bringing slightly pleasant conditions for the remainder of the short term. Highs Thursday will be a tad cooler with upper 80s to lower 90s across the CWA with lows in the upper 60s by Thursday night. Tropical Storm Helene developed out in the Gulf yesterday and is forecasted to become a major hurricane. This is expected to cause some impacts to South Texas like increased seas, the rip current risk, as well as causing some hazardous marine conditions Thursday. The increased seas will likely necessitate a Small Craft Advisory for portions of our Gulf waters tomorrow. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday night through next Tuesday) Issued at 344 AM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024 Key Messages: - Increasing risk of rip currents and potential coastal flooding late this week as Tropical Storm Helene moves across the Gulf Sunny skies and warm temperatures will dominate the forecast through the middle of next week. Highs will generally range from 85 along the coast to around 95 degrees out west. Much drier air will keep us a lot more comfortable, even with our sunny skies and warm temperatures, with heat index values below 100 (finally!). Low temperatures will even dip into the 60s, leading to some pleasant early mornings. The only significant weather during the long term forecast will be Tropical Storm Helene. TS Helene is expected to become a hurricane some time today as it approaches the Yucatan. It could become a major hurricane as it approaches the Florida Big Bend. While TS Helene is not expected to directly impact the Middle Texas Coast, long period swell will arrive late this week, increasing the risk of rip currents, minor coastal flooding, and hazardous seas. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1205 AM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024 Currently, a broken line of showers and storms exist just south of Austin, TX to portions of Southeast Texas. Confidence is low on this activity persisting into South Texas but will need to keep a close eye on any amendments necessary, specifically for VCT. Low-level moisture, light winds, and mostly clear skies outside of the convection could lead to late overnight into early morning 09-14Z IFR/MVFR ceilings and LIFR/IFR vsbys associated with fog. Expect these conditions to mainly impact the inland Coastal Plains (VCT/ALI) but could spread into CRP as well. Winds will remain generally weak through the TAF period ahead of a cold front that will push through 20-06Z and shift winds out of the north to northeast. A broken line of showers/storms will likely accompany the front and therefore included Prob30 mention at all sites within their most likely time window of convection impacts. Thunderstorms will also be possible but did not include in the TAFs at this time due to lower confidence on the exact timing. && .MARINE... Issued at 344 AM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024 Winds will remain mostly weak today before becoming moderate and shifting north by Thursday as a cold front moves offshore. This could lead to brief periods of Small Craft Advisory conditions. A moderate northerly wind will continue on Thursday in the wake of the cold front. Isolated showers and thunderstorms will linger over the coastal waters through Thursday morning before drier air moves into the region. As Tropical Storm Helene moves north across the Gulf, we could see hazardous marine conditions over the weekend as increased swells arrive. For updates on tropical cyclone development, visit hurricanes.gov. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 94 71 88 67 / 20 20 10 0 Victoria 96 69 91 62 / 40 10 0 0 Laredo 97 71 91 67 / 20 20 0 0 Alice 96 71 91 65 / 30 20 10 0 Rockport 94 73 92 70 / 30 30 10 0 Cotulla 98 69 93 65 / 20 10 0 0 Kingsville 94 71 89 66 / 30 20 10 0 Navy Corpus 89 75 87 73 / 20 30 10 0 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...NP/92 LONG TERM....LS/77 AVIATION...EMF